NFL Football Betting  |  Money Management Tips

At Football Forecasters we adhere to a "Grinders" style of wagering.  One of the best pieces I can remember reading on football betting & money management with regards to wagering, was a piece I read while living in Nevada. It pertained to playing professional level Blackjack (did you know blackjack is the only game in Vegas that a knowledgeable player can win at consistently? It's a matter of statistics, probabilities and card counting). The concept fits very well for bankrolling your football betting action. It involves using a small "scaling" concept used in blackjack card counting, and I  combine it with a stock market investment strategy I learned from Bob Brinker of MoneyTalk. These are excellent money management strategies for football betting - I call it "Grinding".  The concept is simple: 1) Define your bankroll before the season starts.  2) bet a set percentage of your bankroll on each base play you make.  3) Bump your play up only slightly, 1-2%,  when you feel you have a game you are particularly confident about (A Plays).  A Grinder has no expectations of hitting remotely close to 100% of his picks every week. Neither will he make a recklessly large play (over 10% of bankroll) on any given game to “catch up” or “play a sure-thing”. A grinder is looking to hit a simple majority over the long haul--along the lines of 54 - 66% winners (though we do strive for perfection). He will place only between 3-5 percent of his bankroll on any given wager.

A Grinder plays a specific percentage of his overall bankroll consistently on each play week in and week out. For example: Whether your bankroll is $1,000 or $10,000 dollars you would place 4% of your overall football betting bankroll ($40 for a 1K bankroll, $400 for a 10K bankroll) on each and every play you make. Your "bankroll" is defined as the total amount you have socked away in a shoebox, that you can afford to lose and not change or adjust your living style. Most people don't have this amount "set aside";  Another definition of bankroll is the amount of money you could get your hands on in a pinch without borrowing from your mother.  If a Grinder with a $10,000 dollar bankroll made 200 plays during the season, and hit 58% winners, he would finish the season by nearly doubling his stake, being ahead +9,440 units. A 94% return in about 5 months, that’s damn good. The reality is that we strive for perfection, but settle for a realistic winning percentage, somewhere between 54 - 60%.  

Sound financial discipline will keep you in the game if and when  you hit those inevitable rough times. No matter how much a play appeals to us we rarely double up on a play, in fact we rarely place more than 5% of a bankroll on a single play.  There is no such thing as a "lock" (many a square has gotten in trouble because of playing a lock).  It is also folly to make a bet solely to have "action" on a game.  If you feel compelled to do this (an example is if you're going to watch the game on TV) limit your action to 1% of your bankroll. Know the difference between "entertainment action", and a calculated and researched investment wager.

Your base wager should be an amount you are "comfortable losing". Play within your comfort zone. If you've been a dollar player for years and are thinking about stepping up, a large step up in action could impact your judgment. The glitz, the action, the prospect of losing, the allure of hitting a big return, could make for unstable decision making. Remember that even the sharpies lose 40-46% of the time!  I've found that having a predefined bankroll is the best way to maintain emotional and mental clarity over the course of the roller coaster ride of the betting season. Money management prowess is fundamental to being a winning player - just as the ability to stop the run is fundamental to a winning football program.

I am often asked about parlay tickets. The math says most of them are a losing proposition. The professionals limit their income action to straight up wagers (or two team parlay tickets). To be truthful, I like playing parlay tickets myself. However  I limit my weekly parlay action to a maximum of 2% of my bankroll (with the exception of two-teamers) or no more than the amount of 1 base wager. There are good parlay tickets, and losing parlay tickets. Before you play tickets, learn about them. Understand the math, the payouts ratios, the subtle differences between good tickets, and sucker tickets.

Addendum on two-team parlay tickets: The math says that with a typical winning percentage (54-60%) playing two-teamers is  a winning strategy over the long haul. They can be especially profitable when playing the Money Line on a two-team ticket. This is also a solid strategy to reduce your exposure to risk; simply put approximately 1.5 to 2% of your bankroll on each ticket. Two-teamers are parlay tickets that statistically a bettor can consistently profit playing over the long haul.

There are variations of being a Grinder, I've outlaid what's worked for me, derived through reading handicapping books,  online gambling articles,  and money management techniques used in playing blackjack and stock market investing.  I used to be a losing bettor. I would scratch my head trying to figure out how I picked 60% of the games correctly and wind up losers. I used to fanatically chase bad plays with desperate plays. I am convinced that most people can pick winners. However the vast majority of winning pickers wind up losing over the course of the season. The key to long term success is sound football betting advice & money management strategy. Have the discipline to consistently place the same percentage on your play’s each and every week.  Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered, be a big fat pig.

Good Luck,

Kurt Schumacher

Editor - Football Forecasters