AFC Division Previews

By Dale Sims

Unobstructed View

It is time to turn our attention to the 2008 season even though we are months away from the season and there is likely to be some roster juggling yet to come.  In addition, holdouts and preseason injuries have yet to be factored into the equation at this point.  Still we have new information available from the draft and free agency available that gives some view of the future these teams are looking toward.  At this time of the year, everyone is an optimist.

The AFC East

Buffalo – They played above themselves last season and suffered a number of critical injuries.  This team could be much better this season if they can stay even reasonably healthy.  The pick up of McKelvin was a value pick that filled their most critical need and should have an immediate impact.  In addition, their second round pick James Hardy is a bit of a project, a basketball player, he has only played football as his primary sport a couple of years.  He has soft hands and at 6’6” and a 37” vertical jump, he looks like a real red zone threat and a nice compliment to Lee Evans.

Miami – This team is under reconstruction as one might expect from a team with the first overall pick in the draft.  This should bolster an already decent running game.  Chad Henne   They made a very safe choice in Jake Long who looks like he will be a long-term feature at tackle.  Merling was a real value who fell due to surgery for a sports hernia, which may limit him somewhat this season.  Miami also has picked up some useful talent from Dallas possibly getting three or four starters including TE Tony Fasano who should become a fixture there.

New England – The Patriots actually had a number of needs in the off-season for a team that was just shy of perfect last year.  Mostly they needed to get younger and healthier on defense and that process started in the draft at linebacker, a position that they have always emphasized; Mayo should contribute immediately, and Crable will benefit from the presence of the veterans for a season or two.  Still of concern is the defensive backfield, though improving the pass rush may help there.  The Patriots have some offensive line issues of concern; the spread offense is exciting but the offensive line had problems keeping the pressure off Brady; expect them to be using the spread more selectively this season.

New York Jets – A disappointing season last year the Jets are sporting a win now attitude.  They went into the free agency period and immediately jumped on guard Faneca to upgrade their offensive line.  They also finally put together the right kind of talent to support playing a 3-4 defense adding Kris Jenkins as the presumptive nose tackle and LB Calvin Pace.  These look like a good football move though the economics might be a future issue.  In the draft they were equally aggressive picking up the athletic but inconsistent Gholston with the sixth pick overall and trading back into the first round for another athlete, TE Dustin Keller.  If everything works out the Jets could take a big step forward but there are a lot of pieces to try to put together here.

The AFC North

Baltimore – The Ravens are going to be making a number of changes offensively this season and they have limited cap space.  With the retirement of Ogden looming it was somewhat surprising that they passed on the offensive linemen available in the first round.  Falco was a stretch at best there and putting a rookie behind a makeshift line does not enhance his chances for a successful NFL career.  Most of their off-season changes look to be developmental on offense as their defense continues to age overall this off-season looks like a net negative.

Cincinnati – Well the drama continues as the Bengals cut ties with two of their more troubled players (Thurman and Henry).  Perhaps this team can focus on football if some of the distractions are gone.  Keith Rivers will take some of the sting out of Thurman’s departure, whose contributions have been limited and they added receiver Andre Caldwell who should be a contributor in the passing game.  Their defense remains the key and their pass rush was one of the worst in the league last season.  Fixing that is going to have to have to depend on improving the blitz as they really have much the same defensive line options as they did last season.

Cleveland – The Browns had no draft picks the first three rounds mostly because of their free agent maneuverings.  Signing Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams are moves intended to shore up one of the league’s worse defenses.  They added Stallworth to an already talented receiving corps their offense should continue to roll.  They did get Beau Bell in the fourth round one of the better inside linebackers in this draft, injured while practicing for the Senior Bowl his stock fell off severely.

Pittsburgh – The Steelers added some skill position talent in the draft with Mendenhall in the first round though exactly how the playing time between him and Willie Parker will work out is unclear.  Limas Sweed is a tall athletic target who should play a role in the red zone offense.  Still the offensive line was a concern last season and there does not appear to be much in the way of improvement on that front.  If Big Ben cannot stay upright the additional offensive weapons are not going to help much.

AFC South

Houston – Houston did draft an offensive lineman in the first round but no one had Duane Brown slotted as a first rounder.  Still he is athletic and a good fit for this offensive scheme and should start right away.  They still have a number of needs, running back most obviously, as neither Green or Brown look like the answer, and draft pick Slayton does not look like an every down option.  They also have a general lack of depth just about everywhere, which means they will have to stay healthy to compete.

Indianapolis – The Colts just seem to keep on loading up their offense drafting five offensive picks including three centers.  Pollack is likely to be competing for a starting guard spot but all three fit a zone-blocking scheme as interior linemen.  They also picked up running back Mike Hart with one of their compensatory picks who could be a nice fit though the return of Rhodes to that backfield clouds his chances a bit.  They also took two tight ends looking for a replacement for Utecht and defensively they picked up two linebackers, Wheeler looks like a potential starter as a rookie.

Jacksonville – Jacksonville did considerable moving around in the draft looking a lot like a team that was looking for a couple of specific players to get over the top.  They specifically were looking to upgrade their pass rush and they believe Derrick Harvey is going to do that and they traded up again in the second round to get Groves a linebacker who also will be playing defensive end in this scheme but with a healthy Reggie Hayward the Jaguars should have a significantly better pass rush.  They have no glaring weaknesses at this point but have some potential depth issues at wide receiver and possibly along the offensive line.

Tennessee – The Titans took Chris Johnson, a running back with sub 4.3 speed in the first round; not an obvious need having drafted running backs in the two prior drafts.  Picking up Lavelle Hawkins in the draft and Justin McCareins in free agency does not look like enough to improve one of the poorer vertical passing offenses in the league though getting Alge Crumpler will help overall.  The defense will be the focus and should be decent again assuming that Haynesworth is both healthy and playing with intensity.

AFC West

Denver – The Broncos picked up Ryan Clady in the first round as the heir-apparent to the retired Matt Lepsis.  That is not going to fix all of their problems along the offensive line but should help once he becomes acclimated to the NFL.  Denver brought in Wiegmann to backup center Tom Nalen between them they have twenty-eight years of NFL experience as starting centers, the third round pick, Lichtensteiger a center from Bowling Green, will have a chance to learn a lot from that pair.  The Broncos went heavy on defense in free agency Boss Bailey (playing with his brother Champ) might be a nice fit there if he can get, and stay, healthy.

Kansas City – A team in a rebuilding phase the Chiefs laid a nice foundation for the future.  With the draft picks they got for Jared Allen they picked up guard/tackle Branden Albert, running back Jamaal Charles and safety DaJuan Morgan.  Albert is a lock to start with the likelihood of being an NFL tackle, Morgan should see playing time as a rookie and work into a starting role during the season and Charles should be a productive backup this year and possibly future starter so this looks trade likely to work out for the Chiefs.  They also got Glenn Dorsey in the first round who was arguably the best defensive player in the draft and overall this draft could produce six starters, at least three this year.

Oakland – The Raiders drafted predictably taking speed over need passing on Glenn Dorsey when defensive tackle was perhaps their biggest need to take running back Darren McFadden.  The running game was about the only positive last season and though McFadden looks like he might be something special the upgrade was marginal.  They did pick up some players in the free agent market Gibril Wilson looks like the best of that group but their defensive line acquisitions of Kalimba Edwards and William Joseph are going to have to step up if the Raiders are going to improve significantly this season.

San Diego – The Chargers were a team who really did not need much, which works out well as they only had five picks to work with.  Picking Antoine Cason gives them an immediate nickel back and a swing player who can play and conceivably start at either safety or corner at some point.  Jacob Hester is technically a fullback and they did lose Neal; but Hester is much more of a running back than a blocking back he looks like he may be on the field in two-back sets and also the backup for Tomlinson.

Observations

The NFL owners voted unanimously to void the collective bargaining agreement.  You want to look at the word after voted very carefully because the NFL owners probably could not get a unanimous vote that the sun comes up in the East.  (Al Davis would vote west for sure.)  They opted out at the earliest possible date and that does give them some time to work out something new.

There is a chance that they might hammer out an agreement but they need to start early.  The good news is that the owners and the players have a common enemy that they can carve up so both sides can come out ahead.  Who you ask?  Future rookies of course, they are not yet members of the union and the owners, largely because of their own lack of self-control, need to be protected from guaranteeing vast sums of money to unproven talent.

If things work out they will end up with an NBA type of arrangement setting the payment levels by draft position and all rookie contracts will have a standard duration.  The NBA contracts though are paid out unlike NFL contracts that are often designed to be terminated without paying out the stated value.  There will be other sticking points as well and getting a new collective bargaining agreement rates to be a struggle.

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com

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