NFC South Report

By Dale Sims & Kurt Schumacher

The NFC South

The NFC South plays the NFC North within the conference and draws the AFC West, which gives them a schedule advantage that could see the top two teams in the division make the playoffs.

This division looks to be better than most people seem to think at this point.  While Atlanta may be the early (and possibly late) favorite to be on the clock for the first draft pick of 2009 the other three teams have considerable upsides.  All of these teams will need to have some things work out, mostly questions about players coming back from injury.  Our choice by a very narrow margin is New Orleans, who has added a lot of talent and depth to the defense and look to field a very prolific offense yet again.  The two non-common opponents each team faces will play a significant role in determining who prevails as division champion.  The Saints draw San Francisco and Washington - both winnable; while the Buccaneers get Seattle and Dallas, a likely split but a lot rides on the opening day game when Tampa Bay plays at New Orleans which rates to set the tone for the division early.

New Orleans   10

Tampa Bay      10

Carolina           8

Atlanta              2

New Orleans

The Saints just added a big weapon to their arsenal with the trade for Shockey, and that gives Sean Payton another resource in his offensive arsenal.  We also would point out that All Pro QB Drew Brees has some experience working with athletically gifted tight ends.  The question for this offense is the running game, specifically RB Deuce McAllister’s health after suffering a knee injury and micro-fracture surgery; what will be his capabilities now.  The power running game is an important part of setting up the Saint offense for the many other things they like to do. RB Pierre Thomas filled in capably for Deuce last year, and gives optimism that the Saints will be able to pound the rock between the tackles when they have too, whether it’s McAllister or Thomas.

In the major defensive acquisitions in the off-season, everyone has been looking at DE Jared Allen to Minnesota - but MLB Jonathan Vilma to New Orleans could have a much greater overall impact. Former Pro Bowler Vilma was miscast in the new defensive scheme the Jets now run, but his skills fit very nicely in the Saints scheme.  The recovery from injury raises some concerns as both Vilma and McKenzie are rehabbing knee injuries (reports at the time of this writing our both players are progressing nicely).  These players are the most talented of the back seven for the Saints, and essential components for our improved projections defensively.  If these two players are on the field for 75% of the Saints defensive snaps this season New Orleans should be the team to beat in the NFC South.

Tampa Bay

Tampa is an odd mix of youth and veterans.  Last season the offensive line came together and was one of the many bright spots in the season; it is a talented young unit overall and has some depth.  Running back Williams may not be ready for the start of the season, though Graham proved to be a capable performer last year.  It is at this point, looking at the rest of the skill positions, the team begins to noticeably age.  Jeff Garcia at quarterback throwing to Joey Galloway has certainly been effective but they are 38 and 36 respectively and that is going to start to tell at some point in the future, perhaps near future if injury strikes any of this group.  Hilliard is a relatively young 32 at the other receiver and they really need a better weapon there.

On defense, the youth movement was fueled by a very good 2007 draft class and continued in this draft with the addition of first round cornerback Talib,  likely the nickel back this season and eventual successor to Ronde Barber.  The defense is the real strength of the team and they are likely to be better this season than they were last year because they are deeper, which is important as the group is fast but undersized.  Still the defense has some transitions to make and the unit will suffer some inconsistencies as a result.

Carolina

The Panthers might be a much better team than people realize, of course they will need to have some things work out.  First on the list will be that Delhomme’s elbow is fully recovered and can hold up through the season.  Last year they played musical quarterback, that is not something they want to reprise this season.  The second factor has to do with rookie running back Jonathan Stewart and imposing a power running game.  Fox has thrived with that kind of a running back but has not had that type of back for the past few seasons.  The offensive line looks to be bulking up for the power running game.  The other important move was to find a viable receiving threat opposite Steve Smith; the return of Mushin Muhammad and addition of promising free agent acquisition D.J. Hackett looks to be a good start to that end.  (Muhammad is also an excellent downfield blocker for the running game.)

The defense raises some concerns, Peppers was ineffective last season, as the defensive line could not get pressure on the quarterback.  They have made some wholesale changes along the front and will be starting two free agent tackles, Walker and Scott, who may or may not be significant upgrades.  They have made moves to improve the depth on defense to keep the line fresh, and rotating the tackles may provide the lift the line needs.

Atlanta

One thing that is for sure, this season can hardly be worse for the franchise than last season was.  Vick crashes and burns in spectacular fashion as the preseason is due to start.  The rookie coach proves to be unqualified and then unprincipled as he jumps ship before the season officially ends.  Of course, the response to all of this is to cut most of the remaining player leadership.  Given all that this season should be less dramatic but probably no more productive.  They will likely be starting rookie quarterback Matt Ryan at some point early in the season and will be behind a somewhat makeshift offensive line, not a good formula for success there.  RB Michael Turner will be tested to be a steady producer in this environment, particularly as they project to be playing from behind most of the time.

Defensively there is going to be much the same uncertainty.  A rookie figures into this side of the ball also as second round pick Lofton could be a big help if he picks up the defense.  This looks to be another long season for the Falcons, even if it only lasts sixteen games.  On an optimistic note Atlanta is a young team, and they are putting the key pieces in place to build a contender.

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