NFC North Report

By Dale Sims & Kurt Schumacher

The NFC North goes up against the NFC South within the division and crosses over to play the AFC South, which rates to be a difficult match up.  This division offers plenty of questions and offers very few answers at this point.

This is a difficult division to call because the best quarterback in the division is John Kitna.  That statement pretty much sums it up.  How exactly can you predict how this group of teams is going to do given that the quarterbacks on three are, at this point of their careers, marginal at best?  Well if the offenses are questionable, at least the defenses of three of the teams are very good.  The choice in this division is to go with the Vikings they have, to some extent, a quarterback-proof offense and both the best rushing offense and best rushing defense in the NFL.

Minnesota       10

Green Bay        9

Chicago            6

Detroit               4

Minnesota

Tarvaris Jackson is the quarterback on the spot in Minnesota.  His numbers are unimpressive but he is just starting his third season and his receivers have been every bit as mediocre as his statistics.  The addition of Berrian should give him a proven reliable deep target; it remains to see what he will do with that resource.  The reality though is that Jackson does not have to win games, just avoid losing them.  The Vikings have one of the very best power blocking lines in the NFL and a couple of very good (one possibly great) running backs.  They match up very well against the defenses in the division

The Vikings have a very good defense; their problems with pass defense last season came about because of two factors.  First, they defended more passes than any other team in the NFL largely because nobody really wanted to try running on them.  Second, they had almost no consistent pass rush, which left their secondary exposed for too long.  The acquisition of DE Jared Allen should be a major step toward mounting a better pass rush.  (It is not as if opponents can afford to double-team him and let either one of the Williams go one-on-one in the middle.)  The secondary is likely to suddenly look a lot better this season.

Green Bay

The Packers have a quarterback controversy, actually more like a soap opera, Favre’s antics are looking to turn into a sizeable distraction.  QB Aaron Rodgers and his teammates need to be focused on the upcoming season.  The Packers have a well-balanced offense, but the design is that the pass sets up the run so Rodger’s performance matters.  The offensive line blocks well for the pass, which should help but decision-making by the quarterback plays a large part in determining the line’s effectiveness.  The league wide track record of QB's following in the steps of a hall of famer is not good....

The defense has a very good front seven, and plays well against both the pass and the run.  The defensive cornerbacks are experienced and therein lay a concern.  Woodson and Harris are capable but as cover corners eleven years is a very long career.  Last season they seemed to be getting more penalties, which can be a sign that they are losing speed and grabbing to avoid giving up big plays; still they also tallied six picks last season. 

Chicago

The Bears have a true lack of established talent on offense.  They lost their only established receiver, Berrian, within the division replacing him with a former Bear, Mary Booker, and the well-traveled Brandon Lloyd.  They also parted ways with RB Cedric Benson, leaving them with a rookie and the oft-injured free agent Kevin Jones.  Oddly, those are not the Bears most immediate problems.  The offensive line fell apart last season and will be seeing considerable shifting around, including a rookie at left tackle.  They will be protecting either Grossman, who has been streaky to erratic, or Orton who has been if less erratic, much less streaky in a good way.  The Bears do not require a great offense, not even a good offense, average might be sufficient for them to have double digit wins.  There is little reason to believe that they will manage that. However, if the offensive line gels, protects the QB, and opens up the running game - the Bears could be a surprise force in the division.

The Bears defense despite the overt statistical numbers was still a good defense despite injuries last season.  They had to defend more plays than any other team in the NFL, one of the results of last season’s inept offense.  In addition, the prototypical Tampa defense is undersized, the more they are on the field the less effective they are because they wear down.  Still the defense scores points, which may win a couple games in spite of the offense.  The Bears have the best special teams in the league, also a source of points both directly and indirectly.  Hester is a huge talent (trying to make him a receiver may dilute that while producing little value to the offense) but all aspects of their special teams are good and that will also enable a win or two.

Detroit

The Lions started well last season against moderate opposition hit the second half and collapsed in classic Detroit form.  They did have a decent passing attack but the offensive line was porous and opposing defenses could jump routes knowing that there would not be time for the quarterback to make adjustments.  They had no running attack, partially a result of the line but also lack of running talent.  This season they are looking to play a more balanced and substantially simplified offensive scheme.  The offensive line is still a work in progress and largely an unknown value in the new scheme and the running game looks like it will be relying on rookie, Kevin Smith.  They still have a lot of talent in their receiver corps but the good news pretty much stops there.

Detroit has been trying to field a Tampa two type defense for the past three seasons and it is still a work in progress.  This season will see another overhaul and at least five new starters.  How long it will take to get this group working together is unclear, as is the talent level. 

Summary

The Vegas odds to win the NFC North are as follows:

There are no real surprises here, and no non-common opponent schedule advantageous. Minnesota has the superior offensive and defensive lines in the division - unless there's a catastrophic breakdown they should take the NFC North.  The Packers don't have an all-pro caliber impact player on offense that defenses have to game plan for.  And the Bears have too many questions on offense to be considered serious contenders. Detroit is perpetually rebuilding.... We like to dig deep to find the value plays, but in this case Minnesota is the play to make.

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