AFC West Report

By Dale Sims & Kurt Schumacher

The AFC West

Within the conference, the AFC West matches up with the AFC East and crossing over to play the NFC South.  The AFC West does not project any obvious surprises within the division race.

We are picking San Diego to win the division easily.  Actually, they have a very good chance to end up hosting the AFC championship. They play New England at home in week six, they a potential edge with the tiebreaker there.  Over all they have a rather favorable schedule, although they do play both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis as their non-common opponents with the rest of the division.  Meanwhile, Denver is still has questions along both lines, Kansas City is rebuilding, and Oakland is still Oakland.

San Diego       14

Denver                8

Kansas City       5

Oakland              4

San Diego

The Chargers seem to have it all, a top-flight defense, a steady offense, and good special teams play.  A full year working under Norv Turner’s offense should mean that they start fast out of the gate going into their week six game with the Patriots.  They have added a vertical dimension to their passing game that has been lacking in previous seasons, and gives their offense even more explosiveness.  The health of Rivers, coming back from ACL surgery in January is a concern.  Generally, it takes about a year to recover fully from this type of injury and it has restricted his practice routine until recently.

The defensive front has been good for quite a while and the play of Cromartie last season improved the overall secondary play.  This allows San Diego greater freedom to blitz, something that should be frightening to the teams that have to face them.  The only concern on defense is a lack of depth in the secondary and along the defensive line.

Denver

Denver has fallen upon some hard times and could struggle to hit the eight wins projected if their defense has not improved.  Like the other teams in this division they find themselves rebuilding key elements of their team, offensively this means the line.  They could also do better if the offensive line comes together in a hurry and they can return to their patented running attack as the central focus of the offense.  This would relieve some of the pressure on Cutler to win games with his arm.  They have replaced offensive coordinators though no changes to the basic offensive scheme or terminology will occur.

The defensive coordinator has also changed and in this case, the scheme will be changing.  Expect that group to be more aggressive up front, where they have moved DJ Williams to the weak side.  This defense can afford to take some chances up front, as they probably have the best pair of corners in the NFL who would appreciate some support from the D-line.  How long the team takes to work out the new scheme and the new personnel on both sides of the ball to acclimate to the changes and each other will determine the fate of the Bronco’s in 2008.

Kansas City

The Chiefs are in obvious rebuilding mode and they know it.  They have made a number of changes, all aimed at making their team younger and retooling for the future.  They have acquired some interesting pieces and putting them together will be the focus this season.  How quickly this team develops will depend upon the progress of Croyle though our general observation is that it is difficult to develop a quarterback behind a bad offensive line.  The return of Larry Johnson and development of the O-line should provide some insight as to Croyle’s long-term potential.

Defensively the Chiefs have a lot of raw talent and potential though not a great deal of depth.  They should be able to develop on this side of the ball relatively quickly and if the offensive line does not get better they will have a lot of extra time on the field to work on things.

Oakland

The soap opera that is Oakland; here is a team with some talent but the conflict between ownership and the coaching staff can undermine a team quickly.  The odd thing here is that the Raiders did make progress last season offensively but did not improve their record because the defense regressed.  Oakland adopted a zone-blocking scheme and the line was average; a tremendous improvement over the 2006 season where terrible would be one of the kinder possible descriptions of the offensive line play.  If, the development of the running game continues to improve, it can only help the development of Russell as a quarterback.  He will need some help as the receiving corps (Walker and Curry) has durability issues.

The defense was augmented by various moves in the free agent market; hopefully they will find something there that is effective against the run.  The talent is there for this to be a good unit and with a potentially emerging ball-control offense perhaps more optimism would be justified, but a lot of things would have to come together for the Raiders to get to even.

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