AFC South Report

By Dale Sims & Kurt Schumacher

The AFC South

The AFC South schedule has them playing the AFC North and crossing over to the offensively challenged NFC North.  The NFC South rates as the strongest division in the AFC based on our preseason projections and have the least deviation between the top and bottom ranked teams.

We are picking Jacksonville to win the division over Indianapolis based on schedule though from a talent perspective Indianapolis still has the overall edge.  Their two non-common opponents are for Indianapolis - the Patriots and Chargers, while Jacksonville gets the Bills and Denver.  That difference is a game and could easily be two games. Jacksonville also catches a break playing the Vikings at home (a team they match up poorly against in a dome) while Indianapolis plays Minnesota on the road.  The entire schedule lines up very well for Jacksonville to finally break through against the Colts for the division title.  There is a caveat here though, every season Jacksonville seems to lose a game (sometimes two) for no obvious reason within the division to Houston and/or Tennessee.  If they do that this season, they do not have so much of a cushion that they would still win the division, so a note of caution and a minus to their projected win total:

Jacksonville    13-

Indianapolis    12

Tennessee        8

Houston             6

Jacksonville

The Jaguars have invested heavily in improving their pass rush and it should pay off; they have a very solid and deep pass rushing rotation.  Indeed if everything goes well they would be a good choice as a dark horse for the Super Bowl.  The improvement in the pass rush makes the defensive backfield better already they added cornerback Drayton Florence to add depth and possibly compete for a starting spot.  Offensively the running game is one of the best in the NFL and will continue to be the focus.  They also bolstered the receiving corps adding Porter and Williamson in the off-season.  (It is rumored that Williamson was actually catching what was being thrown to him in the preseason workouts, translating that to the regular season is of course the million dollar question.)  Garrard makes good decisions and the running game should open up the play action passing game if they can develop a reliable receiving threat.

The nature of the run-first offense tends to keep games close.  Opponents that can stop the Jaguar running game can frustrate them into mistakes (Tennessee and Minnesota this season).  They also are not a team that plays well from behind, so a team that can jump out to an early lead and dictate the game tempo can present problems.  Still, they rate to be in every game, and in games where they can control the tempo they can and should dominate.

Indianapolis

We are not forecasting the decline and fall of the Colts quite yet, the schedule is the major factor here in our call, but there are some other concerns as well.  As a team they focus well particularly within the division, which makes them a threat to win outright since the first tiebreaker is record within the division if the Jaguars falter.  (The second tiebreaker, record within the conference is a bit more daunting facing New England and San Diego who are arguably the top two teams in the NFL.)  The preseason will start with three key players (and a couple of other role players) likely unable to perform, specifically Sanders, Freeney, and Harrison.  Harrison is particularly a concern; his physical problems (knee) last season were never really well explained and at his age (36 at the start of the season) provides some cause for concern about his effectiveness this season.  On the other hand, they have essentially the same team that went 13-3 last season.  To replace departed guard Jake Scott they picked up three interior linemen in the draft and have Johnson, a capable swingman to take over there.  Behind Harrison is Gonzalez and there is depth beyond him and Rhodes returns to back up Addai so the depth at the skill positions (except quarterback) is there.

Indianapolis always seems to be able to put together a defense from whomever they have available and they are a solid and talented team overall.  If this defense is on the field too much over the course of a game, they can be worn down which is how both Tennessee and Jacksonville have built there offenses.  This is a speed-based defense that feeds on the big play and turnovers but it is undersized.  Of course, that leaves the opponents defense to try to shut down the Colts offense with a different sort of challenge.

Tennessee

The Titans surprised everyone last season by making the playoffs.  They would surprise us a bit if they managed to make it back this season; though, as a team, Tennessee has always seemed to overachieve.  Part of the reason for this view is that the off-season did not seem to improve the team much.  About all they had going for them offensively was their running game (fifth best) so they drafted another running back in the first round.  Their passing game was fifth worse in the NFL so they used their fifth pick in the draft as the only wide receiver they took.  They will trust their fate to Justins, McCareins and Gage – all journeymen wide receivers.  They did acquire Crumpler who certainly should be an asset but the ability to mount an effective vertical passing game is questionable.

The defense was the big surprise last season, after the suspension of Jones they came together and played solid run defense.  Haynesworth is the anchor of the defensive front and the Titan’s franchise player but has yet to complete a full sixteen game season.  He is also temperamental and inconsistent which could mean problems.

Houston

Houston continues to improve and they could easily do better than our projection if they can stay healthy.  They find themselves in the best division in the AFC and though they have improved, they lack overall depth. The Texans rate to start the season one and four looking at three road games and a visit to Indianapolis.  Still the Matt Schaub experiment seemed to have started well and Andre Johnson should be helped by the emergence of Kevin Walter and Andre Davis as receivers.  The running game though will rely on Ahman Green and Chris Brown and an offensive line that is not very good, though they finally picked an offensive lineman on the first day of the draft.  OT Duane Brown seems like a bit of a reach but he is a good athlete who may need some development but could be a long-term solution at left tackle in their zone-blocking scheme.

The defense is very young and still learning and that group should be better as well.  (Does anyone want to rekindle the Mario Williams/Reggie Bush draft debate?)  The addition of LB Rosevelt Colvin gives them an experienced pass rusher who should be a nice addition, and Reeves looks like an upgrade at cornerback.  Still, they are likely to need some time to come together as a group to compete in one of the tougher divisions in football.  Houston is a prime example of a team that should be a tough out for anybody, and might pull off an upset or two over the season.

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