AFC North Report

By Dale Sims & Kurt Schumacher

The AFC North

In 2008 the AFC North will play against the difficult South, and will then draw the strong NFC East.  This makes their base schedule the most difficult of any division in the NFL.  It is a generally balanced group and the division winner here could end up with nine wins, perhaps even eight.  As a result, we do have a surprise here.

The pick to win the AFC North is Cincinnati, the pick is not a slam dunk favorite; actually, it is a slim margin over Pittsburgh.  However, the Steelers schedule is more difficult as their non-common opponents are San Diego and New England (compared to Cincinnati’s draw of Kansas City and the New York Jets).  That though is just a part of it, as the Steelers get Indianapolis, San Diego, Cincinnati, New England, and Dallas in consecutive weeks late in the season - a brutal stretch of games even though four of them are at home. Winning three out of those five will be a strain as the successive battles, against high caliber competition will extract a price. 

This division looks to be up for grabs as all of these teams have problems to address and the one that does the best job has a chance to win the division.  We can simplify the analysis in this division, as there really are just two teams in the discussion:  The Bengals have an explosive offense and a suspect defense; while Pittsburgh features a strong defense and questions on offense.  Of course, it is not quite that simple, but almost.

Our game by game scorecasting models project the total wins as:

Cincinnati        9

Pittsburgh        8

Cleveland        7

Baltimore        5

Cincinnati

Cincinnati gets the nod despite the drama with Johnson and the dismissal of Henry and Thurman, which may actually help this group as a team.  Their offensive line is very good, and several back-ups earned valuable experience subbing for last years injury riddled group. The O-line returns healthy this season, and should be one of the better units in the league.  The passing game is always there but Cincinnati looks to focus more on the running game, and have unusual depth and talent at running back.  The offense rates to be the best in the division based on that depth.

Increasing the emphasis on the running game rates to help the defense if just by keeping it off the field.  Their defensive secondary is a year older and they seem to have their linebacker situation sorted out, first round draft pick Keith Rivers should have an immediate impact.  The addition of Odom should help the pass rush but a lot will ride on getting consistent pressure from the front seven, which was a problem last season.  The Bengals have the best overall talent in this division and an edge with the schedule.

Pittsburgh

The Steelers have a brutal schedule.  Last season the offensive line play started to fall off, and they are going to notice that even more when Justin Hartwig is lining up where Alan Faneca used to be.  Roethlisberger is a very good quarterback even under pressure but the hits take a toll over time.  The addition in the draft of Mendenhall is a nice fit as Parker wore down during the season and is coming back from a broken leg.  Having them in two-back sets should create some match up problems, but before that happens the blocking will have to improve.

The defense will determine how well this season goes for Pittsburgh.  They have playmakers, depth, and LeBeau is one of the better defensive coordinators around; they can generate turnovers, and will need to. Pittsburgh’s secondary however can be had over the top, the safeties were a liability last season. Troy Polamalu is a physical player, who was playing on a bum knee (which may or may not still be an issue). If he plays like last year the Steelers season will be disappointing.  Polamalu is to the Steelers what strong safety Bob Sanders is to the Colts.  With a history of concussions, and now knee issues, Polamalu’s physical style of play may have caught up with him – and you just don’t plug in a player who can replace a Polamalu. The other area where the Steelers have issues has been special teams, they have changed coaches and a marked improvement there could help overcome the liability of a questionable secondary.

Cleveland

Cleveland over-achieved last season, benefitting by playing a last place schedule (which included Miami, Oakland, St. Louis, San Francisco, and the NY Jets – all of whom had losing records last year). They were fortunate in some of their wins and they were relatively healthy all year.  The emergence of Anderson as a quarterback was unpredictable and while we expected good things from Joe Thomas he played like a seasoned pro from the first game.  While they are an improved team, expecting them to catch another “perfect storm” this season is unrealistic.  They have a very good offense though more depth at running back would be a good thing, but the threat of their receivers and the play of the offensive line should make whoever is at running back effective.

The play of the defense is another matter.  They have attempted to fix the problems along the defensive line in the off-season with two moves, picking up DE Corey Williams and nose tackle Shaun Rogers. Improvement from the defensive line is a critical need since they ranked thirtieth overall last season defensively.   However, they traded their best defensive player CB Leigh Bodden and left themselves thin at cornerback.  Cleveland is going to be vulnerable to the strong passing attacks of division rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The Browns gave up 130 ypg last season rushing, and they return essentially the same cast of linebackers... they look to still be soft versus the run. A number of things need to go right for this group to repeat last year’s results. Certainly with Dallas, the NY Giants, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis on the schedule the betting line is over valued.

Baltimore

Baltimore has worked to reshape their offensive line and have made good progress, the retirement of Ogden will cost in terms of leadership, but age and injuries have taken their toll over the past couple of seasons.  McGahee should be more effective than last season under a new game plan that should allow more runs to the edge.  Quarterback is the question here, both who will start, and how long will they wait before giving Flacco the reins.  The other question is who, exactly, will he be throwing to; the receivers do not inspire a lot of confidence here.

Defense will continue to be the focus here but it is an aging group.  This means injuries are an increased concern because recovery time goes up.  The secondary had issues last season, mostly related to injuries, but should be deeper with the addition of Washington (from Oakland) and drafting two promising looking safety prospects.  If the offense has difficulty moving the ball the defense looks to be on the field a lot – that spells trouble for a solid, but older unit.

Summary

The Vegas odds to win the AFC North are as follows:

As you can see our total NFL win/loss scorecasting model at Football Forecasters.com projects Cincinnati will win the division with 9 total wins, and there is good value in the play at 6 to 1 odds.  In this instance the division bet is a superior play to the total over/under because of the competitiveness within the division. If the Bengals do win 9 games, they will almost certainly win the division title. The division winner might only end up with 8 wins, and the Bengals have the easier schedule of the primary contenders within this group. Six to 1 odds to win the AFC North sound a lot better than the 2.25 to 1 odds of the Cincinnati OVER play.

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