AFC East Report

By Dale Sims & Kurt Schumacher

The AFC East

The AFC East draws the AFC West within the conference and plays across to the NFC West.  This is going to involve a lot of travel and that does have an impact.  More for some teams than others, where you play Seattle for example matters a lot.  Who comes into Buffalo the last month of the season can be something to consider also.

No surprise here we are picking New England to win the division.  Their schedule is not especially difficult but it does include trips to both Indianapolis and San Diego.  They also have a week four bye, later byes are better.  Last season we felt that the Jets had overachieved in 2006 and were going to have problems meeting the high expectations in 2007.  In 2007, they underachieved and this season we expect a rebound, at least a bit.  Buffalo could be a breakout team this season.  Actually, they had a breakout year last year but no one seems to have noticed they had a raft of injuries and still managed to win seven games.  Either the Jets or the Bills might have a chance to make the playoffs in 2008 if they can stay healthy.  Miami would seem to be rebuilding, they have a running game they should be able to establish though not much else.

New England              14

New York Jets              9

Buffalo                           8

Miami                            3

New England

Last season the Patriots looked offensively unstoppable and have much of the same personnel so they should be set for the most part there, you would think.  The game plan that worked so well early had problems as the season developed though.  The spread offense left too few blockers and teams with very good pass rushes created problems when the Patriot’s line could not get everyone blocked.  Expect the Patriots to be a bit more balanced this season, working to establish the run; they will still put the ball up a good bit but against teams like San Diego they will likely mix up the play calling a bit more.

Most of the changes that New England made were on the defensive side where they are aging.  The secondary will be where most questions are asked; losing Samuel creates a hole that will not be easily filled.  While they drafted a couple of cornerbacks (and signed a couple of free agents as well), they stocked up at linebacker where age is becoming an issue.  As last season progressed opponents exploited the defense underneath, particularly picking on Vrabel and Brushci - expect more in 2008

New York Jets

The New York Jets look like they have a good chance to make progress this season.  The offensive line regressed last season, the addition of Faneca between Mangold and Ferguson should solidify that group.  The result should be a better running game and an improvement in the play-action passing game.  Of course, that means getting better play out of the passing game as well.  The addition of Favre makes opponents respect the deep ball, and will keep teams from putting 8 in the box. Look for RB Thomas Jones to rebound somewhat this season, as NY looks to have placed more emphasis on improving the play of the offensive line.

The defense has been a disappointment, particularly as they really have not been able to put the right personnel on the field to run the three-four defense they want.  Vilma was a talented linebacker but did not fit the scheme.  Gholston is an athletic player with a big upside who fits well in theory but is a big gamble.  His measurables are great but his college performance was spotty at best.  If he plays up to his abilities, or even close, the Jets would have a pass rush and their secondary will look a whole lot better.  If Jenkins can hold up as the nose guard this group could be much improved in 2008.

Buffalo

The Bills were hit hard by injury problems last season but everything considered played well as a group.  The offensive line is good and Edwards seemed to be making progress last season, though more is needed.  Lynch is a good running back who should be more versatile in his second season, giving them a playmaking receiving option other than Evans.  They have a very raw talent in James Hardy, a 6’ 6” former basketball player with soft hands, who could turn into a big red zone threat, which they need desperately.  They still do not have a lot of depth on offense so they will need to stay healthy to challenge for a playoff spot.  At the time of this writing LT Jason Peters is a contract hold out; if that situation does not resolve itself prior to the season look for Buffalo's playoff hopes to be seriously diminished. (Peter's has several years left on his rookie contract, the circumstance is Buffalo paid top dollar for two journeyman caliber free agent lineman in 2007, and Peters rightfully feels he deserves compensation equal to or greater than Langston and Dockery.)

The defense in Buffalo had its problems last season especially defending the pass.  The group had a number of key injuries, little depth, and no pass rush to speak of.  This is a young group and has a lot of promise, the addition of Stroud to bolster the middle of their defense needs to pay off.  If he is attracting double teams the pass rush will get better.  The addition of cornerback McKelvin will also help the secondary, which is a talented group now with some depth.  Look for this group to show improvement against the run as well.

Miami

Miami had the first pick in the draft this year and might have that chance again next year - they have a lot fix.  Right now, it appears that they have the makings of a decent running game, the offensive line has some talent and Houck is one of the better position coaches in the league.  Ronnie Brown is coming off ACL surgery and could be limited somewhat while he is working his way back into playing shape, but Ricky Williams is reportedly looking very good in his off-season work-outs.  The wide receiver talent is limited and the quarterback position looks to be up for grabs.

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