OREGON - W - Oregon is coming in off a bye after a tough home loss to Cal. The Ducks have the best rushing offense in the Pac-10, and despite leading most of their contests by a generous spread have a respectable pass defense. WSU comes in with the highest rated pass offense in the conference, but have a weak rush attack, averaging only 72 ypg on the ground. The fundamental advantageous favor the potent Oregon rush attack versus porous WSU run defense; and respectable Duck secondary vs a one dimensional Cougar pass attack. The scorecasting models forecast an 18 to 21 point Oregon victory going strictly by the numbers; but we like the motivational advantages here which heavily favor Oregon. We project a 21-24 point double up win by the motivated home team.

B-rated "Also Likes": Auburn (ML), Wisconsin (ML), Notre Dame (+), Ohio St, Illinois, Michigan.

10/14/07 NFL A play:

BALTIMORE - W - Man is St Louis banged up. Three back-ups starting on the offensive line, a back-up RB, and a back-up QB. None of their starting receivers are 100% either. The Rams have the 28th ranked run defense in the NFL, and their passing defense gives up 7.9 ypa - you're not going to win with those defensive numbers. They're a dome team traveling to play on grass. Baltimore get's starting CB Samari Rolle back, and we expect they'll hold the Rams offense to 13 points or under. Offensively the Ravens should be able to control the line of scrimmage. Look for over 150 rushing yards and 24 to 28 offensive points. Baltimore by 13.

B-rated "Also Likes": Washington (ML), Atlanta (ML).

ALSO LIKES: Georgia (ML), Wisconsin (ML), Purdue (+), USC, Texas A&M, Missouri

10-07-07 NFL A play: NY GIANTS - W - Both squads have vulnerabilities in the secondary. But the Giants have faced a stiffer caliber of pass attack, while the Jets are getting abused by some of the weaker passing offenses in the NFL. Now the Jets secondary is without their starting safety, and Manning should have a very good day. The Giants have some match-ups they can exploit on offense, while the Jets don't have enough offensive weapons. We like the Giants by double digits.

B-rated ALSO LIKES: Tampa Bay (+)(ML), Jacksonville

SAN DIEGO - L -Kansas Cities trumph card is LJ, but that plays right into the strength of the Chargers staunch 3-4 defense. This is KC's 3rd road trip in 4 games, while the talented Chargers squad is off to an unexpected 1-2 start. The only head coach with more questionable game preparations skills than Norv Turner is Herm Edwards. Playing the betting game is all about looking for match-ups to exploit, and San Diego has advantageous all over the field - including their talented front 7 versus the rebuilding KC offensive line. look for a double digit domination by the Chargers.

ALSO LIKES: Cleveland (+), Arizona (ML), Tampa Bay (ML), Atlanta (ML), NY Giants(ML), San Francisco (ML)

UPDATE 9-29-07 NCAA A+ pick:

SOUTH CAROLINA - W - Our scorecasting models have SC winning by 13-17 points, yet the Gamecocks have fundamental advantagous on both sides of the ball. Big Al weighs in saying The Bulldogs will be starting a back-up freshman QB on the road, and will have a very tough time establishing the run in this spot. SC will win by a comfortable margin - you can take it to the bank - SC by 21.

9-29-07 NCAA A plays:

PURDUE - W - This is a sophisticated college offense. Notre Dame can't match-up over the top, Purdue enjoys match-up advantageous with their prolific pass attack vs the slow ND secondary. The sluggish ND offense can't establish an identity, they can't run the ball, and they won't control the clock. Looks like a long day for the Irish. Our scorecasting models have the Boilermakers winning by a 21-28 point differential.

CINCINNATI - W - The Bearcats are playing at a high level on both sides of the ball. Their winning games with a well balanced offense and attacking defense. The defensive passing statistics are skewed because teams have been playing from behind against them. But consider that the defense has 12 interceptions this year, gives up only 57% completions, at 220 ypg - that is against over 40 pass attempts a contest. They travel across country to take on disappointing SDSU. The Aztecs are another team who's offense has been struggling. They are a pass first team who are going to have trouble punching it into the endzone against this secondary. Cincinnati has a big game on deck in conference rival Rutgers, we're a little concerned about a look-ahead otherwise this may have been an A+ rated opinion. That said the Bearcats should prevail by a 3 score margin.

ALSO LIKES: Ball State, South Florida (+), Illinois (ML), Michigan, UNLV (ML)

PITTSBURGH - W - This pick is based on Pittsburgh's ability to stop the run, as San Fran's offense begins and ends with Frank Gore. QB Alex Smith is merely a game manager, he doesn't possess the "it" factor, and has no deep weapons at wideout; which is the Steelers lone vulnerability. Pittsburgh excels at stopping the run, they'll shut down Gore, and they won't be hurt by the Niner's short pass attack. On the other side we see the Steelers moving the ball liberally between the hash marks with a well balanced attack; winning the field position battle and notching a double digit victory.

PURDUE UPGRADED A+ Pick - W - The Boilermakers can throw the ball on this porous secondary. Gophers have been lit up over the top thus far this year. With Michigans slide Purdue is thinking Big 10 title. Not too worried about a late backdoor cover as Minnesota has been turning the ball over through the air and Purdue has top notch secondary. B-Men win by 21-24 points.

SOUTH FLORIDA - W - Regular readers of this page know we love playing the Bulls. Though it's usually as an underdog vs the larger schools. Last week they outright stuffed the Auburn Tigers rush attack; this week we don't see how the struggling run-oriented Tar Heels are going to get any traction playing on the road. We'll lay the 2 TD's and call a 3 score victory by South Florida at home.

OHIO STATE - W - The Wildcats are struggling on both sides of the ball. OSU may have lost some of their offensive firepower from last year, but their defense is still top shelf. The Buckeye's are Big Al's Pounder of the week.

B-Rated / Also likes: Georgia (ML), INDIANA (ML), TOLEDO (ML), TEXAS, BOWLING GREEN.

Two-team parlay play strategy: If you've read my money management strategy you know I like to play two-team parlays at about 1.5 to 2 percent of bankroll. An example of how to minimize your exposure to the sportsbook is to reduce your overall wager and maximize your return by putting a highly regarded moneyline pick on a two team parlay. For example, my college action this week is placed on 2-teamers as follows:

PURDUE/GEORGIA (ML) - Winner

OHIO STATE/INDIANA (ML) - Lost

SOUTH FLORIDA/TOLEDO (ML) - Winner

Statistically only 14% of games are decided by the line, so if you like a dog you can fatten your return by playing it on the Money Line. Hope that helps - Peace, Football Forecasters

CHICAGO - L - They have nice fundamental match-up advantages here against KC, and it's their first home game of the year off a tough loss. LJ had a tough outing against the Bears D at home last year, this time he's at soldier field and doesn't quite have his football legs yet. Outside of a great pass the Bears shut down LT last week - LJ isn't known for his throwing prowess. We like the bears in a blow-out.

EAST CAROLINA - L - This is the first conference game for the Pirates, and a step down in competition after facing Virginia Tech and winning their home opener against primary rival North Carolina. ECU actually shut down the running games of BOTH the Hokies and Tar Heels, and they were in Blacksburg when they were in it to the end with the Hokies. We have a fundamental unit on unit matchup advantage favoring the Pirates. Southern Miss features a rush oriented attack, and we see them struggling to move the ball against ECU's run defense. On the other side Southern Miss was thumped by Tennessee, and they did post a win vs a second tier division 2 program. ECU has the match-up advantage, they're playing at home, and they've played better against the tougher schedule thus far. We like the Pirates as a 5% of bankroll play on the Money Line, and will call a 7-13 point victory.

9-12-07 NCAA A plays:

WYOMING(+) - W - We had been on Boise State for several years, but now they've been over valued. Wyoming plays their home games on turf, and won't be bothered by the blue carpet; they're very familiar with this opponent. Last year they had a young team, and only lost by 7 to the Bronco's. This year it's the Cowboys who have the experienced team, and the Bronco's who are reloading. This contest should be decided by a TD either way. We like Wyoming's solid pass defense, and will take the generous points. That said we won't be surprised if they pull off a SU road win.

PENN STATE - L - Big Al's Pounder play. The Lions new spread offense means they'll put up points against this over matched foe. Look for a 35 to 42 point margin of victory.

HOUSTON - W - We think this is the year Houston makes their move. They're going to be a competitive, scrappy team. The Texans are a well balanced team, they can throw the ball, and they can run the ball. On the other side KC is officially rebuilding. LJ got into camp late, and his timing won't be 100% with his rebuilt offensive line. Houston will be able to stack the line because KC doesn't have a bona fide threat at receiver, and Gonzalez ain't what he once was. The Texans play well in their openors, and they have fundamental advantages over this opponent. Our opinion is Houston wins comfortably, by 7 to ten.

VIRGINIA TECH - L -  If you believe strongly in trends you'll want to disagree with us here, because we're bucking them. The Hokies have strong fundamental match-ups, they're returning most of their key players from last years bowl team, and they have the emotional and situational advantages. ECU is starting a freshman QB on the road, and lost most of their veterans from last years 7-6 team. Big Al says Virginia Tech will dominate ECU by 30-35 points.

RUTGERS - W - Big Al says Buffalo will have a difficult time putting points on the board. Sure they're returning a lot of seniors, but they were terrible last year too. Rutgers wins by 40.