NFC South Report

By Dale Sims & Kurt Schumacher

The NFC South

Last season this division essentially turned upside down.  This season might also surprise before it's over.  The Panthers get the nod here in what should be a close race possibly a dead heat.  Carolina still has the same core group as last season, and had a bad season then mostly as a consequence of their injury problems.  The schedules are not easy, they line up against the surprising NFC West and crossover to the AFC South.  New Orleans in particular has drawn a particularly difficult schedule, starting at Indianapolis and finishing the season in Chicago the last weekend in December.  We suspect that Chicago will still be fighting for playoff positioning and that New Orleans is knocked out of the division title as a result.

Carolina           11-5

New Orleans     10-6

Tampa Bay       7-9

Atlanta               4-12

Carolina

Carolina is talented but there are still some issues here after what was a very good draft.  Some of that talent will have to play at once and working these players in may not go entirely smoothly. Fox is not a big fan of playing rookies and some of these players will be in important roles Beason, Jarrett, and possibly Kalil may all start week one.  The offense was inconsistent last season, the shift in offensive coaching staff was the result, another season like last year and highly regarded Fox will soon be shown the door.  They will be using more of a zone-blocking scheme, which will suit their current running backs much better.  This should work out well with a healthy Steve Smith to stretch the defense down field.  The defensive line is well seasoned and still one the best, the overall defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL.  They have the kind of balance on both offense and defense that gives them the edge in the division if they can stay healthy. 

The oddsmakers have the Carolina total at -105 to win OVER 9 games. We think this is one of the better total wins plays available. Consider that the Panther's were everybody's favorite darkhorse to win the NFC championship last season. However, they were beset by crucial injuries, and played a tough schedule. This season they play a very favorable schedule - and remember they beat New Orleans twice last year.

New Orleans

The Saints are not going to be sneaking up on anyone this season, nor do they have a particularly soft schedule; drawing both Philadelphia and Chicago as their exclusive opponents. Still the rest of the division has their own problems, and New Orleans has one of the best offenses out there.  The problem here is that they have an offense based on scheme and that usually only works for a short time as defenses find ways to counter, the number of weapons they have gives them a chance to keep evolving but it seems unlikely that they will experience the level of success they did last season.  The Saint's defense is still not impressive, particularly on the backside and they will be likely to have problems defending the pass. Consider that newly acquired CB Jason David is more suited to a zone coverage scheme and will be asked to play man in the Saints scheme - there's a reason the Colts didn't match the Saints offer for David (electing to receive a 4th round compensatory draft choice). On the other hand their offense is good enough to keep them in about any game; yet their defense is bad enough to keep the opponents in the games also, add that they have a difficult schedule and we see their win total going down, though given the quality of the NFC they still rate to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay made a number of defensive moves in the off-season and draft to add to their defense and make it younger.  It may take a while to put those new pieces together but the changes are needed and growing pains are to be expected; the team is rebuilding, even if no one is willing to acknowledge it. Still, Kiffen is one of the better defensive coordinators out there, and the defense may be better than expected this year. Offensively, outside of free agent Jeff Garcia, the team has not made significant changes, which could make this season an uphill struggle for the most part.  The offensive line is still a question mark and because of that Garcia may not make it through the season.  Gruden is known for his offensive skills and will have to demonstrate them to survive the season; he is likely to be a coaching casualty if he cannot improve on last season’s results. If the Buc’s post a winning season it’s because Garcia will prove to be one of the better free agent signings of the offseason - that and Tampa draws the easiest schedule in the division; if the defense returns to form they could surprise this year.

Atlanta

Most teams do not do well with distractions and it looks like Vick may lead this team to the dogs, literally.  The Falcons are in the midst of changing coaches (again), changing schemes on both sides of the ball, and a lot of the roster; the questions here are a lot more obvious than the answers.  The offensive line is being changed from zone to a power-blocking scheme, which is more difficult than going the other direction, there will be a learning curve here. The defensive line looks to be returning just one starter from last season.  Timing is everything, Finneran blows out the same knee he injured last year and will likely not play this season. They made a great deal for Matt Schaub and now have Joey Harrington as their fallback if Vick is for any reason unable to perform.  Defensively the front seven look like they will be solid but the secondary remains a question mark.

SUMMARY

The schedules here have some wide variance in terms of difficulty and this will affect the order of finish here.  While New Orleans is a great story and everyone is on that bandwagon we would like to offer a note of caution.  Picking for the division is not a stretch but projecting them to the Super Bowl seems wildly optimistic.  They do rate to make the playoffs we believe but as a wild card not as the division winner. Tampa might be in the chase if things fall into place for them; and Atlanta is a team where the wheels could fall off rather easily.  The best totals play here is Carolina OVER 9 wins.

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