NFC North Report

By Dale Sims & Kurt Schumacher

This is not a particularly solid division, three of the teams are still rebuilding, perhaps the division is closer to being competitive but perhaps not.  There are some strange things going on in this division that involve every team.  It seems that none of these teams got much better in the off-season so this year could look a lot like last year.  The NFC North gets to play the AFC West and the NFC East, which gives them, considering the weakness of their own division, overall schedules of average difficulty.

Chicago                        11-5

Minnesota                     8-8

Green Bay                     7-9

Detroit                          6-10

Chicago

Chicago seems to be heading into the season in the midst of a soap opera.  Tank Johnson has been released, and Briggs is vowing not to play.  The offensive line is aging but still quite capable they should be solid as a group if they can stay healthy because none of the backups show promise.  The quarterback issues are well known but the progress is unclear at this point; consistency would seem to the question as the season starts.  Hester will add some excitement to the receiving corps and return game, but the threat he represents may make may its biggest impact in opening up the running game.  The defense is somewhat thin at linebacker and tackle but still should be good; Harris and Brown are coming off injury and need to be on the field full time.

The Bears draw New Orleans and Seattle as their exclusive non-division opponents; the toughest draw in the division. They also get Denver, Dallas, San Diego and Philadelphia. Still, given the weakness of the division Chicago is the odds on favorite to repeat as champions. That said we expect them to back slide a bit this year.  One thing that is worrisome is Vegas has Chicago at even money to win OVER 10.5 games, and -130 on the UNDER; those odds beg punters to take what appears to be an easy call on the over. However, considering off-season losses, and the strength of the non-division schedule it wouldn’t be surprising to see Chicago struggle to get to double digit wins this season.  And we all know Vegas simply just isn’t wrong very often.

Minnesota

The Vikings are actually capable of having a good year if they have an answer for the passing game.  First, whether or not they actually have a passing game, and second can they stop the pass attack of anyone else.  They did not do much to address these matters in either free agency or the draft, and one-dimensional teams on either offense or defense generally do not fare well.  The progress of Tarvaris Jackson is such that he will need more development time and there is not a whole lot of obvious talent in this group of receivers.  Still they have a good offensive line and Tavaris will have a solid rush attack to fall back on.  The change in defensive coordinator’s may help get the Tampa-two defense they tried to institute last year on track.  The defensive line is very good against the run but does not get the pressure on the quarterback; they will likely be looking to create pressure with blitzes but that runs contrary to the defensive philosophy.

Green Bay

Green Bay has spent much of their off-season efforts to solidify what was already a good defensive front.  Their defensive problems last season were more frequently created by breakdowns in coverage at critical times; the issues there though may get better as this very young defensive group matures.  The offensive line, which started to come together last season remains intact.  The problem for the offense will be at skill positions where the best option at running back may be their second-round pick Brandon Jackson and lack of depth at wide receiver and production at tight end may continue to frustrate Farve. Still, if the Packers find a running game they could be a surprise playoff contender.

Detroit

Detroit is still a team looking for many answers.  They have improved in both free agency and the draft but still have notable problems.  The offense should be more productive than last season, particularly if Jones can stay healthy, the complex nature of the Martz game plans take a lot of repetition and having the first season behind them should be a help.  It will be interesting to see how Calvin Johnson works into this offense, on the surface he seems like a perfect match.  While the defense has a number of questions at all levels but they really need help in the middle.  Here is another team going the Tampa-two route and changing the defensive coordinator but the overall talent here is suspect.  This team might be able to sneak up on a couple of teams this year.

SUMMARY

The NFC North looks weak at this point, other than Chicago any of the other three teams could potentially be looking at the number one pick in the 2007 at the end of the season.  The good news it that all of the teams appear to be taking steps to turn around their respective teams but the last thing you want to hear in August is wait until next year.

It is unlikely that a wild card could come out of this division but very possible that the NFC champion could.  If Chicago dominates their division as they have in the past it could lead to home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and Chicago in January can be a huge home field advantage.

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