Unobstructed View

It is time for the Super Bowl the most over-hyped football game of the year in any year.  The game this year between New York Giants and the New England Patriots has a number of story lines based on the week seventeen game between these two teams, which was a competitive game.  Everyone wants to emphasize the Giants improved play since that game.

 

There are a couple of things to keep in mind though.  The Patriots offensive line was missing both right tackle Nick Kaczur and right guard Stephen Neal that day and it showed in a big way as Justin Tuck had his way playing on the inside crating inside pressure on Brady.  This also was a factor in stifling the Patriot running game.  The game was also on Saturday and there was less time for preparation, the game plans were fairly simple and straightforward.

 

Ultimately, the Giants lost the game because they had a late turnover that eventually resulted in the Patriots winning score.  However, they also were unable to find an answer for the Patriots depth over the course of that game, Welker and Faulk had their way with the Giant secondary most of the game.  The Patriots controlled the clock in that game 36:18 to 23:42 while having less than fifty yards of rushing in the game.

 

This is not a particularly difficult game to analyze as the Giants do not match up well on too many fronts.  The weakness in the Giant defense is with the pass coverage of the safeties.  This is bad when they are playing a team with the kind of receiver depth the Patriots have.  The giant pass rush has been successful in hiding this defect for the most part, but against the Patriots they are bound to be exposed.

 

Everyone would like this game to be close and to be competitive but Super Bowls seldom are.  The desire to keep the hype going compels most to pretend that this rates to be a close contest when that is very unlikely to be the case.  Can the Giants win?  Not by overwhelming the Patriots but most games are lost not won so the Giants may have an opportunity.  The Patriots are playing for history though and they want this game to be a statement.  Perhaps they will be overly confident... that seems unlikely.

 

A Tale of Two Super Bowls

 

Part 1

 

The Giants pass rush has not been all that successful getting sacks in their playoff run.  Their sack rate has fallen off considerably from the regular season but that does not mean that they are not having an impact.  They are getting hurries and knockdowns and the threat of pressure has made the teams they have played adjust.

 

If they can get pressure early, they can perhaps force the Patriots to adjust also and play two tight end sets and/or keep a running back in to help block the rush.  This would take the Patriots out of their spread offense and reduce their big play threat.  The hope here would be that the pressure would eventually produce one or more turnovers.

 

The New York offense would need to be as flawless in this game as they have been in the rest of their playoff run.  This means getting Brandon Jacobs and the running game going early.  The Giants offensive line has played very well in their playoff run, and continuous pounding by a 260 pound running back will wear down any defense as the game goes on.

 

The critical element is that the Giants must score early, they cannot afford to play from behind.  If the Patriots have the ball first that may actually work to the benefit of the Giants.  A defense that is excited at the beginning of the game is somewhat less error-prone than an offense in the same state.  It is important that they not fall behind as they have little or no ability to mount a quick strike comeback.

 

The Giants will need all of that to win against the Patriots and it would still likely be a close game.  It really does not seem all likely that all of this will come about because the talent differential between these teams really is that large.  The Giants are a team that might be able to come up with a game winning drive if they can keep the game close.

 

Part 2

 

The Patriots will have their offensive line intact and game plan prepared for the pass rush.  Offensively they will look to score early to take control of the tempo of the game.  The approach will be to threaten the Giant secondary with the vertical passing game.  The spread offense will isolate the Giant safeties who are not particularly good in coverage.  Again, Wes Welker will be impossible for the Giants to handle without exposing the corners in man coverage against the Patriots wide receivers.

 

The defense will look to take away the running game as they did in their meeting during the regular season.  They will have to do so with the front seven; that should be possible early in the game but might be more difficult if they allow long drives.  They will likely give safety help to whoever has Burress in an effort to deal with his height by giving over under coverage.  The Patriots defense will be trying to complicate the reads for yet another Manning.

 

The Patriots will try to get to the vertical passing game going out of running formations, perhaps more than the spread if they see man coverage.  This should give them chances to get Moss or Stallworth isolated on a deep route.  Expect the Patriots to give the Giants lots of different looks on offense until they find match ups that they want.

 

The Patriots will want to jump out to an early lead and make the Giants try to play catch up.  If this happens, expect the Giants to make mistakes, which could make this game very ugly indeed.  The Giants will try to rush Brady but he is adept at seeing the rush and getting to the hot receiver.  New England will be looking to win big to confirm their status as a dynasty, they should do it, Patriots win 42 – 14.

 

Observations

 

The NFL playoffs play the conference championships in any weather but assure that the Super Bowl will be in as nearly perfect conditions as possible.  That probably does not strike anyone else as odd but it is one of many reasons that I find it difficult to get too excited about this game.  It is less about football than it is about spectacle, the U. S. equivalent of the Roman circus with a worldwide audience.

 

It does not seem to be much like football anymore.  The game has become about the distractions more than what goes on in the game, which almost seems to be played as an afterthought.  The coverage is ubiquitous and trivial.  The actual analysis is lost in a sea of drivel; the media inundates us with information about everything but the play of game.  I hope that it will be more interesting than I think it is going to be, that is after all why they play the game.

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com