Unobstructed View

 

Now there are four and each of the remaining games features a team that played in the wild card weekend games.  The favorites are the home teams as one might expect and each of the underdogs are two of the hottest teams in their conferences.  (By definition, no one can be hotter than New England.) 

 

Both games will be played outside this week and there is no chance that a dome team will make the Super Bowl since none is left.  Both of these teams played each other in week two of the season.  The teams have all evolved since them and the match ups will be different but so will the weather.  The long-term forecasts are not predicting precipitation for either game at this point but it will definitely be winter conditions, very cold in Green Bay and possibly high winds in New England.

 

The NFC

 

It is the New York Giants at Green Bay for the conference championship.  As noted, these teams met in the second game of the season, with the Packers winning in New York 35 -13.  The game was closer than the score indicated, Green Bay pulling away in the fourth quarter.

 

Green Bay has found a running game since that time and the offensive line is blocking very well, particularly last weekend.  Last week Ryan Grant acquitted himself well with over two hundred yards and three touchdowns, after putting the ball on the ground twice in the first quarter.  That running game allows Favre to pick his spots as to when to attack the defense vertically.

 

The Green Bay defense did its job last week controlling the Seattle offense with the exception of the early turnovers.  Their defense is underappreciated in relation to the offense.  They do not dominate statistically but are sound in all phases of the game.  The linebackers are the obvious strength but there is talent at every level of the defense.

 

The Giants played a very good defensive game against Dallas.  They were able to get pressure against Tony Romo and disrupt the passing game.  The New York defense did not get to Romo in terms of sacks but they did get pressure on him.  Most quarterbacks have problems with pressure, some more than others.  They made good half time adjustments to limit the Cowboy running game. 

 

Offensively they stuck to their game plan and played an effectively error free game.  They had no turnovers and only three penalties and made key plays when they had to.  The Dallas defense is at its best when aggressive and the Giants offense kept them reacting and denied them the initiative.  This was despite a considerable difference in time of possession and yardage.

 

Like Romo, Favre is difficult to get to, his release may not be quite as fast but his decision-making is typically better and faster.  It is doubtful that the Giants will get many sacks but they will need to get pressure on Favre this week.  They will need to be more effective controlling the clock in this game as well and will need to have a more effective running game.

 

Eli Manning is playing well but their chances in Green Bay do not look good.  The defense is suspect and their offense is historically inconsistent.  The Packers match up pretty well against the Giant receivers and the front seven will not be easy to run against consistently.  Packers win 27 – 17.

 

 

The AFC

 

The situation for San Diego looks particularly grim.  The won the battle but with injuries plaguing their top three offensive weapons they could hardly be worse placed to be going into New England this weekend.  Still they won as underdogs last week.

The emergence of Vincent Jackson as an offensive weapon and the effectiveness of the vertical passing game was an indictment of the Colts’ defense and a good game plan.  Jackson had shown glimmers of the talent that led the Chargers to draft him, the addition of Chambers though has helped and it seems that he has benefited from his rookie experience.  The success of San Diego in exploiting the secondary for big plays was surprising as that had been something that the Colts had not permitted during the season.

 

The Chargers lines played an under appreciated role in their victory last week.  True that the Colts felt the absence of Freeney to a large degree but the rest of defense was in tact and the offensive line kept Rivers relatively unscathed.  Their defensive line did not get to Peyton Manning but they did control the Colts running game.

The Patriots rolled over a tough Jacksonville team; Brady played about as good of game possible for a quarterback.  Their game plan simply moved the ball leaving the Jacksonville defense guessing.  The only time they punted was the last series and they could have probably avoided that one.

The Patriot defense was solid in limiting the Jaguar rushing game.  (Somewhat ignored in this game was the strong performance of Garrard.)  They made enough plays with their passing defense to take control of the game.  This defense is not the dominating force of previous Patriot teams but will still force teams to do what they are not comfortable doing.

It is hard to believe that the Chargers can win in New England.  The weather certainly might be a factor, cold with potential high winds, which would likely limit the vertical game of both teams.  The problem for the Chargers though would be the short and intermediate passing game to the third and fourth receivers, Welker and Watson most likely, in any case the weather might keep the score lower, Patriots win 20 – 10.

Observations

 

On Sunday, both of the home teams lost by the same margin and in a similar fashion.  Neither Dallas nor Indianapolis could make plays when it counted and both had issues with penalties that suggest they were not playing at their highest level.

 

In the case of Dallas, their edge seemed to be failing as the season wound down and affected offense, defense, and special teams to some extent.  Romo is being blamed but this was a real team effort and while is statistics are not impressive some of the credit for that belongs to his receivers.  Nothing should be taken away from the Giants who played a very good game in every facet.

 

In Indianapolis, the defense seemed to be particularly ineffective, as they could not get pressure on the Charger quarterback.  That is a credit to the sound play of the San Diego offensive line and the absence of Freeney.  The team though was not offensively sharp either and had opportunities.  In the case of this game, the layoff may have gotten them healthy but it did appear to cost them in their execution.

 

In the final analysis, there is no right answer to the question of playing or resting players when late in the season.  There are certainly risks involved though and the type of team may be a determining factor.  Timing can fall off fairly quickly in the NFL and teams where that is a critical component of a team’s approach are probably not well served by a layoff.

 

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com