Unobstructed View

 

The divisional playoffs are the focus this week, two of the wild card qualifiers, both of the fifth-seeded teams, won.  Their prize is to travel to the home field of the number one seed for this week’s contest.  By record, the top four teams in each division survived the wildcard weekend, which is somewhat unusual.

 

Last weekend proved some football truths, not that it was required.  First, if you turn the ball over more than your opponent does you likely are not going to win.  Only in the Seattle game were the turnovers even and there you can make the case that since both the Washington interceptions were returned for touchdowns they were more costly than those of Seattle.  Second, that home field advantage is not all that it is cracked up to be, two road teams won.  Finally, the odds makers have a better grasp of the game than I do, going two and two straight up and one and three against the spread.

 

The NFC

 

Seattle won a much closer game than the score would indicate and will play at Green Bay a team with whom they have a variety of connections.  The offensive philosophies of these two teams are similar, both passing based after being historically run-first defenses.  The weather for the game does not appear to be a huge issue, cold but no precipitation is called for in the long-range forecast.  If accurate, this would appear to be an advantage for Seattle, who needs to pass to set up their running game.

 

The Seahawks defense has been opportunistic and Patrick Kerney has been a force coming off the defensive line.  The Seahawk pass defense is effective more because of the pass rush of the front seven than the play of their secondary.  Their ability to play an aggressive defense up is essential to their overall scheme.

 

As noted the Seattle rushing offense once their trademark has fallen upon hard times.  This is attributable to less talent along the offensive line the reduced effectiveness of Alexander as a running back over the past couple of seasons.  They have developed over the course of the season a short and medium passing attack that effectively both takes the place of a running attack and creates favorable blocking opportunities when the safeties are pulled back.

 

Green Bay is playing some of their best football in years.  Their offensive situation has some parallels to that of Seattle.  Without a running attack for the first part of the season, they went through several running backs until they found Ryan Grant in the second half of the season.  He has been effective and gives some balance to their passing attack, which is still their primary weapon.

 

The Green Bay defense is maturing into one of the better units in the NFL.  They are not quite complete at this stage but this is group is solid except perhaps at the safeties.  This is an area though that can be problematic in this match up.  Seattle has the ability for to play four receiver sets that Green Bay does not match up well against.

 

It is very hard to dismiss the Seahawks long history of road problems both during the season and in playoff games, they do not travel well.  If they can get to Favre with the pass rush, they have certain advantages on paper in this game.  In close games the nod goes to the team that wins the turnover battle, which will almost certainly be the case here but give the nod, in what should be a close game, to the Packers 21 – 20.

 

The New York Giants get to play divisional foe Dallas for the third time this season having lost the first two meetings by ten and eleven.  The Giants played very effectively in their game last week getting contributions from a number of players.  Eli Manning played a very good game in securing his first playoff win.  It is difficult to win against the same team three times in a season but that is the task facing Dallas in this game.

 

The Giants have been a difficult team to get a handle on this season.  Inconsistent play has been the primary culprit (and Eli Manning has had his role in that) but injuries have figured in here also.  There are still injury issues some of which may not be resolved until pre-game warm-ups.  The line is the focus of the Giant defense, specifically their pass rush, which lead the NFL in sacks during the regular season.  The Giants defensive line can beat the Cowboys offensive line but Romo is agile enough and has a quick enough release that they will still have difficulty getting to him.

 

The Giants have a good running game and will need to control the clock.  The Giants offense can run successfully against Dallas between the tackles.  If they can give Eli Manning sufficient time there are holes to be exploited in the Dallas secondary.  The ability of Manning to make consistently good judgments in the passing game, as he has the past couple of games is crucial to their chances.  The receivers will need to cooperate by holding onto the ball.

 

Dallas has a prolific offense and a number of weapons in the passing game besides Owens.  Terry Glenn’s return may be enough to offset reduced plays for Owens if that is the situation providing Glenn is in football shape after his layoff.  Witten is another weapon that will test the abilities of the Giant secondary.

 

Their defense has been solid; Ware and Ellis are very disruptive and can create confusion in any blocking scheme.  They are strong at the point of attack and play aggressively, probably the area in which the Cowboys have changed the most in the first year under Phillips.  If Dallas gets ahead the pass rush will be unrelenting.

 

Dallas could have their hands full, particularly if Owens remains hobbled by his injury and the Giants pass rush can get to Romo.  Those are big ifs at this point and the Giants will need to play virtually mistake free to capitalize.  The Giants have to keep the game close in order to give themselves flexibility in their play selection and not allow the Dallas defense to tee off on them.  Cowboys are the choice here to win at home 24 – 20.

 

The AFC

 

San Diego won at home in their previous meeting.  Perhaps it would be accurate to say that Indianapolis lost by virtue of six Peyton Manning interceptions, two special team touchdowns allowed and two missed field goals one in the last two minutes of the game.  The Colts were at their "thinnest" in terms of players having several starters out for that game.  Of course, the Chargers had injury issues of their own then and are playing at a higher level now.  Their defense in particular has come on over the season after an inconsistent start, perhaps encouraged by the example of the offense.

 

The San Diego offense has improved through diversification adding Chris Chambers to the mix to compliment Tomlinson and Gates has helped give Rivers a boost.  The presence of a third threat has given the offense more room underneath to make plays.  Of course San Diego may be without Gates in this game (dislocated big toe) and even if he does play he may be limited significantly.  This would be bad from several standpoints but the tight end running seam routes up the middle is one of the natural weaknesses of the Tampa-two defense that they will be going against.

 

Indianapolis is not getting much consideration as the reigning Super Bowl champion and owner of a thirteen win season.  The offense has been typical, for them, Peyton Manning having his routine four thousand yards and thirty-plus touchdowns, no one notices.  Even more under the radar seems to be that the Colts owned the best defense in the NFL in terms of points allowed and third best in terms of yards allowed.

 

Indianapolis is getting a number of players back, which may be somewhat of a mixed blessing.  The depth that the Colts have shown this season was surprising and changing around things has a disruptive effect.  This is particularly true because the Colts offense is based on timing; it may be difficult for them to get started between the layoff (effectively two games) and the players coming back.

 

The Colts have mixed success playing against three four defenses, e.g. New England, San Diego, and Pittsburgh.  Of course, those are also very talented defensive teams so perhaps it is less about style and more about personnel.  As noted the Colts may have some issues with their timing coming out of the gate which would give San Diego an opportunity to dictate tempo if they could get ahead by more than a touchdown early.  This is the Chargers best chance to win; it is unlikely that the Colts will have the kind of breakdowns that happened in their earlier meeting.  The pick here is for the Colts 28 – 24.

 

As a warm weather team Jacksonville comes into New England in January with remarkably good weather in the long-range forecast.  Temperatures are supposed to be above freezing and there is only a mild chance of precipitation.  Oddly that is bad news for them as they have one of the better running games in the league along with an excellent overall defense and they take care of the ball well.  Their opponent thrives on a vertical passing game and big plays.

 

The Jacksonville team pretty much defines the idea of winning ugly.  Their game centers on line play and ball control and they will simply wear down opponents.  Offensively their passing game is effective but limited.  David Garrad has one of the top passer ratings in the NFL but this is on the second best rushing offense in the league.  Part of that rushing game is the quarterback; he doesn’t run often but can be very effective when he does.  The Jacksonville offensive line will try to wear their opponent down, waging a war of attrition.

 

The Jacksonville defense plays much the same way, very strong up front, heavy hitters who again want to wear down their opponents.  Statistically they do not appear to stand out in any particular area except that they are not on the field as much as most defenses (third least), and they are good at creating turnovers.  This is an aggressive group that can play at a high level which they will certainly need this week.

 

New England seems to be the anointed Super Bowl winner already but they have a couple of things they need to take care of first and this step could have certainly been easier to take.  Still they have the best rated offense in the NFL and one of the top defenses in the NFL and are winners of sixteen straight games.  Add to that they have been able to stay healthy and what could go wrong here?

 

Their offense is based on the vertical passing game; they have established all sorts of NFL records both individually and as a unit.  The offensive skill players have been exceptional particularly Welker.  Yes, Moss had a pretty good season too but Welker has been the go to guy when a play has to be made because of the state of the game or it is a critical first down.  Moss gets the touchdowns and big plays; Welker gets little plays that win the game and he is the player Brady is looking for when it matters.

 

The defense has played very well; this is a veteran group that has the right skill sets for this scheme.  Their execution is smooth and they mix up the look from play to play to keep opponents off balance and creating turnovers.  Despite that, this unit is probably the weak link; to the extent one exists for the Patriots.  They are old and can be exploited but it is not clear that the Jaguars are the team hat can do that.

 

Both these teams tend to want to control the ball.  The Patriot defense can wear down and are not used to being on the field for the majority of the clock.  Jacksonville is very good at controlling the ball with the running game and that is what they will have to do to have a chance here.  If the Jaguars fall behind early they could easily get blown out; playing from behind is not their forte.  New England should be able to play their game and not allow the Jaguars from playing theirs, Patriots win 27 – 17.

 

Observations

 

Upsets do not seem to be particularly likely in this field.  All of the lower seeds have chances of course and perhaps one will come through but it will take a nearly perfect game.  Seattle matches up nicely with Green Bay but their history is not good playing on the road in the playoffs.  Dallas is facing a team playing well,  and they have not played particularly well the last few games of the season, but they have a decided talent edge.  Indianapolis may be slow starting but that is a team with more weapons and playing at home.  New England is the most talented team in the NFL, while Jacksonville has the best running game of the remaining teams and will try to control the ball with a stout rush attack.  Still “On any given Sunday” may not be what is in store for this weekend.  Could the best games of these playoffs actually take place between the one seeds in each conference? 

 

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com