Unobstructed View

 

Last week was again at 11 – 5 straight up; taking the record there for the season to 168 for 256 which is close to where I usually end up for the season, some where about two out of three.  The record against the spread was 7 – 9, which brings that to 122 – 124 – 10 for the season meaning that I would have been better off just tossing a coin, which I may start doing next season.  (Note that the spread referenced is in effect Tuesday morning when these picks are put together; your mileage may vary.)

 

Now the wild card week is upon us.  This is often a week where upsets occur as the teams are all typically pretty close in quality.  This looks to be the case this season as well.  Most of the games should be reasonably close and probably will be decided by turnovers or in the last few minutes of the game.  This makes interesting football to watch but the games are somewhat difficult to predict.

 

The NFC

 

Washington will travel out to the west coast to play at Seattle.  These teams have both come on late in the season with Washington being one of the hotter teams playing right now in the NFC.  A team without a great deal of depth, Washington survived injuries along the offensive line and established some consistency offensively.

 

Seattle has changed their basic offensive structure in mid-season.  Long a run first team their offensive line has been unable to support that style of play for the past couple of seasons and Shaun Alexander has been injured, older, and just less effective of a runner.  They have resorted to being a short passing game, to set up the run type of offense.  This has been a much better fit for their offensive line talent.

 

Defensively the Seahawks have focused on a establishing one of the better pass rushes in the NFL.  The front seven is very talented and can come at an opposing offense in a variety of ways.  The presence of a solid pass rush has done much to cover for mediocre play in the secondary but poor tackling there has made them vulnerable to the occasional big play.

 

The Washington defense has been solid throughout most of the season.  The team is playing with a great deal passion and the death of Sean Taylor has seemed to bring this group together in particular.  Emotion can be a two-edged sword in the NFL and it is difficult to project how this will affect a particular game.  In this case, the focus looks like it will last and the Redskins win 20 – 17.

 

The New York Giants travel to Tampa Bay off a game that shows how well they are capable of playing at times.  The question for them will be what did that game cost them, in terms of not only physical preparation but also regarding the emotional effort.  Three starters were significantly nicked up and their status for the playoffs is uncertain; Mitchell and Madison defensively and center Shaun OHara all would be difficult to replace.  Still the team is coming off a solid performance; it will be interesting to see what carries forward from that effort into this contest.

 

Of course, the problem with the Giants is that they have been consistently inconsistent throughout the season.  Because of that they end up being statistically average over the season for the most part.  However, they have the worst turnover ratio of any team in the playoffs; statistically this usually does not bode well for one’s chances in the post season.   

 

While the story in Tampa Bay is deservedly their defense, the offense has been surprisingly efficient although not prolific.  They do not make many mistakes and take advantage of the mistakes made against them.  Offensively they can threaten the big play but they rely on steady production from their running game.

 

In the Tampa cover-two defensive scheme a ball control offense is an important adjunct.  The undersized defensive line will wear down if kept on the field, so having a time of possession advantage and keeping turnovers down is critical.  This and the improved play of the offensive line are largely responsible for the success of Tampa Bay this season.  If Tampa gets the early lead, they will be very difficult to beat.  Their ability to control the ball and defensive edge make the Buccaneers the choice 24 – 17.

 

The AFC

 

In a repeat of the game played in week fifteen of the season Jacksonville returns to Pittsburgh.  Jacksonville dominated that game statistically, though Pittsburgh did have the ball late in the game with an opportunity to tie.  This game demonstrated the ability of Jacksonville to win on the road and in bad weather against a good team as they put up over two hundred yards against, what was until then, the number one rushing defense in the NFL.

 

Since that time, the Steelers have put Willie Parker, who had fifty percent of the Steelers total yardage in that game, on Injured Reserve with a broken leg.  Davenport is a capable backup but lacks the breakaway speed or ability to run the edge that Parker gave to this offense.  This puts much of the offensive burden on Ben Roethlisberger who can run hot and cold in the same game.

 

While Parker gets the headlines, defensive end Aaron Smith, who went down for the season in the game before to Jacksonville, is as significant of a loss on the other side of the ball.  His play anchored the defensive line of the Steelers and was particularly important in run defense.  On the other hand, Jacksonville is actually getting somewhat healthier defensively with Mike Peterson possibly returning for the playoffs.  While his replacement, Daryl Smith, has filled in admirably, he is not the defensive leader that Peterson is which could be a boost in what rates to be a defensive struggle.

 

Jacksonville will not win this game if they fall behind early.  The Steelers’ defense would be able to attack which is their strength and dictate the tempo.  Pittsburgh will need to establish themselves offensively early in the game and play from ahead as their defensive front can be worn down by the Jacksonville offense if the Jaguars are allowed to control the pace of the game.  The Pittsburgh offensive line play will have to be more consistent than it has been to Jacksonville from pressuring Roethlisberger.  Because Jacksonville takes good care of the ball and has more consistent offensive line play the Jaguars get the pick here 28 – 24.

 

Tennessee will travel to play San Diego; these teams also met earlier in the season when the Chargers won in overtime on the road.  Things are not improved for the Titans as Vince Young is listed as day-to-day which is bad even if he plays if his mobility is limited.  While Rivers is also a bit hobbled (strained left knee), his mobility is not the same type of an issue.

 

The Charger’s first-round loss in the playoffs last season should have them focused.  Getting Castillo back certainly helps their rushing defense, important in this game.  If Young is playing and has his normal mobility San Diego will need to be careful to keep containment on him as his big play potential if he gets outside those linebackers.

 

On the other side, the Tennessee defense against the run is one of the best in the NFL depending upon the state of Haynesworth’s hamstring which he tweaked again last week.  They will have their hands full trying to contain Tomlinson though even at their best.  They can also mount a reasonable pass rush but will likely have issues keeping up with Antonio Gates because they will have to focus so much on the running game.

 

Given the injuries that Tennessee has and the fact they look a lot like a team that is simply happy to be in the playoffs this looks a bit like a mismatch.  It may instead turn into a brutal defensive struggle but the San Diego has all of the advantages going into this one, Chargers win 24 – 14.

 

Observations

 

The playoffs feature wild card teams from where both of the qualifying teams in each conference came out of the same division.  That would seem to indicate that those must be the best divisions in the NFL; perhaps more so though because in each of those divisions, the NFC East and the AFC South, no team had a losing record.

 

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com