The Crystal Ball

 

Last week was again at 10 – 6 straight up; taking the record there to 157 for 240.  The record against the spread was 7 – 9 which brings that to 115 – 115 – 10 for the season meaning that I apparently should have spent the entire season to this point flipping a coin rather than sweating over this.  (Note that the spread is taken as it was as of Tuesday morning when I put these picks together, your mileage may vary.)  The last week of the season is always something of a psychological guess, what teams are already packing up, who will be playing for the teams who are in the playoffs (known as the Sorgi factor); actual talent does not matter as much.

 

The standard disclaimers follow; I participate in a pick’em league and this represents my preliminary choices for that and is for amusement purposes only.  Changes are often made later in the week as more information comes in, particularly regarding injuries.  Because of the deadline for this column, those changes do not get reflected in the weekly or the running totals.  (Not that it seems to matter I am actually one better in this column than I am in my league at this point.)  This represents my opinion only, not the actual informed football judgment of anyone else here.

 

Week 17

 

New England at New York Giants – New York determined their playoff fate last week so New England is playing for history and the Giants are playing for nothing.  New York needs for some players, Burris for example, to get healthy and are likely to rest them early, Patriots win 35 – 20.

 

Cincinnati at Miami – This game matters to Miami players and coaches, with Parcells now on board this game becomes an audition.  Cincinnati played well last week but it is not clear they are well motivated on a week-to-week basis, but still have an advantage here, Bengals win 24 – 20.

 

Buffalo at Philadelphia – Buffalo continues to lead the league in players on Injured Reserve, though they continue to play hard their talent pool was not very deep to begin with.  Philadelphia has been schizophrenic, who knows which personality shows up, Eagles win 28 – 14. 

 

Seattle at Atlanta – For Atlanta this ahs been a season from hell and it would be hard to blame them for just wanting to get it over with.  Seattle’s first round game is set and will likely be resting players early, in a game no one needs to play Seahawks win 24 – 10.

 

New Orleans at Chicago – Chicago satisfied part of their fan base with last weeks win.  New Orleans is technically alive for the playoffs; they face the Chicago team and the Chicago weather with a number of injuries that could affect this game, Bears win 24 – 20.

 

Carolina at Tampa Bay – Carolina has had injury issues and their offense is seemingly Steve Smith and not much else.  Tampa Bay is in the playoffs and their seeding is known so they have nothing at stake but have basic advantages here, Buccaneers win 24 – 21.

 

San Francisco at Cleveland – San Francisco has had a difficult season and their share of injuries along with a portion of someone else’s.  Cleveland put their season accomplishments at risk with turnovers last week and while this result is irrelevant to their playoff fate, Browns win 28 – 21.

 

Dallas at Washington – Dallas has several injured players who will likely be in reduced roles though they may have Glenn available to replace Owens this week.  Washington is playing for the last playoff spot in the NFC, Redskins win 21 – 20.

 

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – Baltimore being offensively limited is business as usual but their defensive issues are a newer issue.  Pittsburgh will replace Parker and will need to set their offense for the playoffs, Steelers win 24 – 10.

 

Detroit at Green Bay – Detroit will find this game a challenge without Kevin Jones in a late game on the road.  Green Bay has little playoff motivation but needs to get rid of the taste of last week’s loss before their bye week, Packers win 27 – 17.

 

Jacksonville at Houston – Jacksonville is locked in at the fifth seed though their opponent is not clear.  Houston could not get their offense untracked last week, their secondary was victimized frequently but they always seem to play well In this match up, Texans win 21 – 17.

 

San Diego at Oakland – Oakland is playing without much talent and even less discipline as the season winds down.  San Diego may be resting some players late in this one but they do have at least seeding considerations at stake, Chargers win 24 – 10.

 

St Louis at Arizona – Arizona has been playing somewhat erratically this season as they have had various injuries.  St Louis has had a number of injury issues as well, both teams would like to end the game on a positive note, Cardinals win 28 – 27.

 

Minnesota at Denver – Denver is coming off a short week and a poorly played game last week, their offensive line issues continue.  Minnesota showed that they are not a team that can come from behind and that their quarterback cannot carry them, Vikings win 24 – 17.

 

Kansas City at New York Jets – The New York Jets season has been disappointing; to say the least, as both defensive and offensive issues have plagued them.  Kansas City is in a rebuilding mode but will try to end the season on a positive note, Chiefs win 20 – 17.

 

Tennessee at Indianapolis – The Colts have a long history of resting players going into the playoffs and are likely to do so this week.  Tennessee is in if they win this week so they rate to be pulling out all of the stops, Titans win 27 – 21.

 

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com