Unobstructed View

 

Well we are rolling into the fourth quarter of the season.  There are not a lot of surprises at this point.  The division races have clarified in each division the leader has at least a two game edge.  There really does not seem to be much in the way of drama in the race for the playoffs.  Even the races for home field advantage seems to be obvious. 

 

So far, besides the lines of the undefeated and/or no win stories still active, the biggest theme of the season has been injuries.  This is true almost every year though this season the injuries seem to have hit some teams in clusters.  Injuries, both those that happen and those that do not, will affect the relative success of every team.  Generally though the fan base tends to look at injuries to key players; last season much was made of the fact that the Colts were a different defensive team when Bob Sanders was on the field.  All injuries matter though, and each injury has a cascading effect on the rest of the team.

 

The replacement player may (and usually does with the exception of the quarterback position) leave a hole in the special team roster.  This is one of the reasons that there have been so many long returns in the kicking game.  The loss of certain players has an impact beyond their actual statistical contributions.  When Bear’s safety Mike Brown has been out the general efficiency of the entire secondary seems to suffer.

 

The NFC

 

The wild card picture in the NFC is a bit more unsettled in than in the AFC.  The New York Giants look to be in control of their destiny though they are not playing all that well at this point in the season.  The second spot is up for grabs.  From the looks of things, the best shot in terms of momentum and schedule would be the Vikings.  They are one-dimensional but their offensive line has been dominating, their defense is very good against the run and adequate against the pass and Travaris Jackson has been steadily improving.  Arizona and Detroit seem to be going in the wrong direction.

 

The Seahawks are in the driver’s seat for the west division, which overall may be setting some kind of record for injuries.  It certainly seems like every team has lost key players but it has not affected the overall results though for the most part.  The Seahawks have been focusing on the passing game more and it suits them better, as their offensive line does not power block very well.

 

Dallas has been very good this year and looks to be a lock for home field advantage throughout at this point.  They have a couple of exploitable weaknesses, notably their defensive secondary is suspect but a steadily improving pass rush has helped as the season progressed.  Their offensive line is decidedly average, Romo can move in the pocket and has a quick release but they also lack a power running game.

 

Green Bay has been a surprise, their defense, as suspected, is good and they have been much more effective offensively than anticipated.  Their offensive line is solid, and as the season has gone on, the running game has developed.  Favre has been playing better than he had in the past couple of seasons and has been patient, letting the game come to him.

 

The Buccaneers are also a surprise this season.  They had drafted well and improvement defensively was expected but that group has come together quickly.  On offense, the aging tandem of Garcia to Galloway has been huge for them and their offensive line play has substantially improved over last season.

 

The AFC

 

While many people expected the Jaguars to make the playoffs by perhaps winning the division they are pretty close to being a lock to make the post season but only as a wild card team.  The other heavy favorite to make the playoffs are the Browns, which no one thought was likely.  They rate to win out their remaining schedule with games against the Jets, Bills, Bengals, and 49ers.  Though the Titans have the same record as the Browns they have a more difficult schedule; though they could catch Indianapolis the last game of the season having clinched everything they can and resting players.

 

For the most part the usual suspects are in control.  Pittsburgh has emerged as the best defensive team in the league.  They have an annoying tendency to play down to the level of their competition though which has cost them some frustrating losses.  Their only real negative issue has been mediocre offensive line play, which will probably doom them in the playoffs.

 

San Diego has taken control of their division as it seemed for a while no one wanted to win the west.  They have had some injury issues and have discovered that changing coaching staffs has some drawbacks.  Phillip Rivers seems to have regressed this season and the offensive line play has fallen off.

 

Indianapolis has been fighting a variety of injuries most notably Marvin Harrison but injuries along the offensive line have also contributed to both of their losses.  The defensive line is where the most critical problems are though.  The loss of Freeney effectively changes how the entire defense works; the ability to get a consistent pass rush with the front four becomes problematic for them.

 

The Patriots have dodged a couple of bullets to remain undefeated.  Clearly when they play as they have, they can be beaten but they are, overall, the best offensive team in the NFL.  There are some flaws here though but exploiting them will take a superior effort by someone.  Their defense is above average but not by much, the injury to Colvin leaves them thin at linebacker, which is the most important position in the three-four as they play it.  Fast receivers can exploit their defensive backfield as they lack great speed in the defensive secondary.  Their offensive line is very good but hardly dominating.

 

There are two other issues.  First, they are a cold weather team and this is not a cold weather offensive scheme.  In bad weather and high winds, both of which are likely at this point in the season, the deep passing game becomes problematic.  Usually, teams that play outside, in the north has a power running game to fall back on, it will be interesting to see what the Patriots will do in a real bad weather situation.

 

The second factor is rather more atypical for this organization.  One of the historic strengths of this franchise has been to make game adjustments.  This season on occasions when there game plan has not been effective they have been slow to adjust.  It almost appears that they are stubbornly pursuing a plan to win on their terms.  They can win out the season but they need to adjust faster in game situations.

 

Observations

 

Two games last week end Jacksonville at Indianapolis and New England at Baltimore this past weekend brought criticism of the officials by the losing teams involved.  This is not particularly unusual, winning teams seldom complain about the calls and there are always close calls in close games that appear to affect the outcome.  Still no game is ever totally decided by the officiating, there are always more missed plays than bad calls.

 

The striking thing in these cases is that the complaints show how the winning teams were in the “minds” of the losers.  Football is a physical endeavor but the game requires a high level of discipline and intelligence.  An edge can be a small thing but clearly, the teams with the better level of control in these two games won.

 

It is also interesting that physical teams quite often are home to players who feel the need to talk about their games on the field.  This is an odd thing, which has changed the face of the NFL over the past several years, probably for the worse.  A player’s game ought to speak for itself; in how he plays and what he accomplishes.  Arguing with opponents, referees, and opposing benches wastes time and effort better put into the game itself.

 

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com