Unobstructed View

 

The first quarter of the season is behind us.  There have been some surprises so far, some teams are doing much better than expected and some worse.  Some of the team results are much more surprising than others; we suggested that New Orleans was not going to repeat in the NFC South, we did not pick Tampa Bay to be the rising power in the division.

 

One thing that has not been a surprise unfortunately has been the injuries.  We discussed this in the first column of the season and the trend has continued.  Unfortunately the trends in poor tackling technique still is rampant despite the two rather serious spinal injuries seen so in the past few weeks.

 

A few teams have been really hurt by injury.  Buffalo has been decimated by injuries losing a number of players on their defense in particular.  This unit was not that deep to start with.  St Louis has been looking particularly bleak along the offensive line and their quarterback and running back have both had serious injuries, probably related to the revolving door that line has become.

 

The teams at the top of the standings are the usual suspects to some degree.  New England and Indianapolis are behaving true to form but some of the perpetual doormats seem to have had a reversal of fortunes.  Some of these teams may have started to turn a corner, others will likely be returning to previous form.

 

Short Lived Greatness

 

Last year two of the big surprises were the Jets and the Saints.  We predicted both would fall off this year but in both cases the fall off looks to be worse than anticipated.  New coaches can change the focus of a team for a while and provide new direction, sustaining it can be a problem though.

 

Common to both teams are the fact that this season they are not surprising anyone.  There is game film that was broken down on these teams and their tendencies and those are known.  The teams earned some respectability last season and they are getting respect in terms of being taken more seriously and better preparation this time around.

 

Also common to both teams was that last season elements of these teams exceeded expectations.  For New Orleans the offensive line last season played very well, they protected for the pass and also blocked the run better than expected.  This season the line has been very inconsistent and has not performed nearly as well with essentially the same personnel.  Their defense still is terrible and because the offense can not sustain drives the defense looks even worse than before.

 

For the Jets last season their offensive line came together very quickly and their defense was surprisingly effective in their three four look.  They did make some changes in the offensive line makeup that cost them leadership in that unit and it shows on the field.  Their defensive personnel in the front seven are still not suited to the front they play and that is being exploited also.

 

Both teams really failed to build on last seasons successes in the off season this year.  New Orleans in particular did little to address their defensive issues; Jason David was not going to solve their secondary problems all by himself and is not suited to their system.  They likewise lost with the departure of Joe Horn leaving a young receiver group without veteran leadership.  The Jets did upgrade their running attack with the acquisition of Jones but their defensive front needed substantial reworking to be an effective three four unit.

 

The Jets may get better as the offensive line comes together over the course of the season though their defense is likely going to continue to struggle.  The Saints prospects are somewhat dimmer with the loss of McAllister and no clear way to improve the defensive talent they have.  If the offensive line does not play substantially better after their bye this will be a long frustrating season in New Orleans.

 

Fallen from Grace

 

The Chicago Bears have lost six players off their starting defensive unit, two for the rest of the season.  The problem with Rex Grossman was perhaps predictable but the injuries to their defense probably doom them.  If that does not do it, the lackluster play of the offensive line will seal the deal; the Super Bowl curse of the runner up returns.

 

The problems with the Chargers are a bit harder to figure.  Of course, you might just go the simple route and question the wisdom of firing the coach who was 14 – 2 for a third time retread who has never been successful as a head coach.  Perhaps losing, in effect, the entire coaching staff is a problem.

 

Some of their problems seem to be left over from last season.  The defense is still very vulnerable over the top and Phillip Rivers has not handled the pressure well.  The failure of the Chargers to bolster the secondary in the off-season seems especially questionable.  The offensive line is not playing anywhere near the level they did last season.  Of course, the current version of the team has become one-dimensional which makes their job much more difficult.

 

Philadelphia looked great in week three and pitiful virtually every other outing.  Their offensive line is not playing well and McNabb does not quite seem to be all the way back from his injury.  Their defensive secondary has issues and overall their defense has just been on the field too long.  Still the inconsistency is reminiscent of some of their play last season.  If their nicked up players (notably McNabb, Sheppard, and Westbrook) come back healthy from their bye week they can recover.

 

Reversal of Fortune

 

Tampa Bay has been a surprise though one of our staff, Kurt, liked them preseason.  Garcia has made their offense surprisingly effective.  Gruden has adapted to his quarterbacks skill set well and the result has been a general improvement in the play of the offensive line because the ball is getting out faster.

 

The Buccaneers had a very good defensive draft, the surprise there is how quickly and well the defense has come together.  This group is playing at a high level much more quickly than expected.  This looks like a team with great potential to be the team with the biggest turn around of the season but the injury to Luke Petitgout is of concern since keeping Garcia upright is essential to their hopes for this season.

 

Jon Kitna predicted ten wins this season and the Lions only need seven more.  Their offense is explosive and capable of putting up big numbers.  Of course, with their defense that is pretty much going to be a requirement.

 

One problem for Detroit is that their schedule is going to get a lot more difficult.  That plays badly for them in that they will be in some shootouts where they just will not be able to keep up.  The other problem is that their offensive line is not very good.  Combine that with the Martz game plan of putting as many receivers as possible into the pattern is likely going to get Kitna hospitalized.

 

Green Bay is also a bit of surprise at this point of the season.  Their defense was highly respected but their offense seemed to have some serious issues.  Oddly, their offense does have serious issues, no running attack at all and no consistent second receiver threat.  So far, they have had a reasonably kind schedule and good fortune.

 

Favre playing some of the most intelligent football of his career also helps them.  He has shown great patience and a willingness to let the game come to him and not try to create something out of nothing.  It is not clear that he will be able to continue this approach if forced to play from behind.  The lack of a running attack though needs to be addressed at some point.

 

Observations

 

Back to the injury issue; the NFL has to do something to enhance player safety.  It really is not very difficult to get started on immediately.  The NFL has rules about spearing (Rule 12, Section 2 Article 8(g)) also known as impermissible use of the helmet and facemask.  This can be used to stop tacklers from leading with their helmets.  Although to enforce this fully in today’s game would mean that there would be record numbers of personal fouls as a result.

 

The spearing rules are actually designed to protect the persons being tackled but they can and should be enforced to protect the tackler.  There are players in the NFL who seem incapable of making a form tackle.  This is essentially a coaching issue but I suspect that in some cases the habits are so ingrained that they cannot be overcome in the NFL where tackling is rarely part of their practice.

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com