The Crystal Ball

 

A rough week, just over average on the week straight up going nine and seven; rather worse against the spread with an ugly 5 – 10 – 1.  The season record is now 33 of 48 straight up and 22 – 22 – 4 versus the spread.  Falling back to even against the spread is expected but I was hoping to stay even a bit longer.  A word here about the spread, it is the line as of Tuesday morning when I put these picks together, your mileage may vary.

 

The bye weeks are starting, perhaps I will lose less, maybe not though.  The injury list has been growing rapidly and there are a couple of games this week where late scratches of certain players could change those picks the other direction entirely.

 

For anyone new to this feature the standard disclaimer is this. These picks are for a pick’em league I participate in.  These choices are preliminary for that league and I do make changes later in the week as more information becomes.  Because of the deadline for this column, those changes are not reflected in the weekly or the running totals.  (I have been know to come off of a winner also.) This is for amusement purposes only and reflects my opinion, not the actual informed football judgment of the rest of the staff at here who know better.

 

Week 4

 

Green Bay at Minnesota – Historically Green Bay has had difficulty playing in the Metrodome.  The Vikings have a good run defense; the Packers have no running game to speak of.  The Packers have a solid defense the Viking have almost no offense, Packers win 17 – 10.

 

Atlanta at Houston – Atlanta has a variety of issues on both offense and defense.  Houston has injury concerns at their skill positions but their defensive draft picks over the past few drafts are starting to come together, Texans win 21 – 14.

 

New York Jets at Buffalo – Speaking of injury issues the Buffalo defense looks like they could be having trouble just putting eleven players out on the field.  The Jets are struggling more this year but they have enough talent to handle this match up, Jets 24 – 10.

 

Baltimore at Cleveland – The Ravens defense has been average so far and their offense adequate considering the injuries to Ogden and McNair.  Cleveland has certainly been up and down the question is will this be an up or a down, Ravens win 23 – 20.

 

St Louis at Dallas – Continuing with the injury theme the Rams offense is patchwork at this point with three offensive line starters out.  Dallas may have somewhat of a let down after the Chicago game but there is no real risk, Cowboys win 21 – 10.

 

Chicago at Detroit – Detroit has an explosive offense and a terrible defense so if there is any team for an offense to get healthy against it would be this one.  The Chicago defense is hurting and Grossman should be on a short leash, Bears win 21 – 20.

 

Oakland at Miami – Oakland has gone from one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL to one of the best, their offensive line problems are not gone but they have improved.  Miami has yet to win but playing better than their record, Dolphins win 20 – 17.

 

Seattle at San Francisco – Seattle has not shown that they have solved their road problems and San Francisco is a difficult place to play.  San Francisco is developing a good defense and while their offense does not frighten anyone, forty-niners win 21 – 20.

 

Tampa Bay at Carolina – Tampa Bay is playing well with Garcia running the Gruden version of the west coast offense very well and the defense has been typically tenacious.  Carolina is facing the possibility of starting their backup quarterback, Panthers win 21 – 20.

 

Pittsburgh at Arizona – Pittsburgh has been rolling up their opponents by margins of over twenty points a game and their defense has been smothering.  Arizona has picked up their offensive line play and become a run first team, not this week, Steelers win 28 – 10.

 

Kansas City at San Diego – San Diego is probably glad to be back at home after a less than stellar road performance.  Kansas City is off of their first win in a season where it appears wins are going to be hard to come by, Chargers win 35 -14.

 

Denver at Indianapolis – Denver has had problems with Indianapolis but now has the best two cornerbacks in the NFL.  Indianapolis seems to be doing just what they have to do to win each week, taking what the defense gives them, Colts win 28 – 21.

 

Philadelphia at New York Giants – Philadelphia had a breakout game for their offense against the Detroit defense.  The Giants have put together solid offensive performances but their defense is too easily exploited, Eagles win 28 – 24.

 

New England at Cincinnati – New England has also been winning their games by wide margins there offense has been particularly strong, scoring almost at will.  Cincinnati has a potent offense though with some injuries 38 – 28.

 

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com