Unobstructed View

 

Well day one of the 2007 NFL draft is finished and this is just some initial reactions to the round one picks for each team.  The draft produced less drama at the top but plenty of action as the day progressed with seventeen first day trades.  (Five in the first round, nine in the third round, and two in the third round with a player trade where Detroit sent McCown and Williams to Oakland for pick 105 in the fourth round.

 

The draft had its share of surprises because many of the players had substantially different grades from different teams.  This was particularly the case when looking at all of the movement in the second round, some of which looked very peculiar.  The genius, or lack thereof, will become clearer over time.

 

Round One

 

Oakland – As projected the Raiders went for the quarterback and took JaMarcus Russell.  This is a pick that has tremendous upside but is also a huge risk.  Russell looks like a player who needs to have some time to develop, he has some accuracy issues and at times his decision making in college was not always crisp.  Given those issues he is going to need an exceptional offensive line and the Oakland offensive line has simply been exceptionally bad.  (Note to Russell, do not hold out; you need all the time you can get in training camp.) The acquisition of McCown buys the Raiders time to develop their protégée on what projects to be a longer learning curve for JaMarcus Russell.

 

Detroit – The best player in the draft was taken at this spot, Calvin Johnson will be good almost no matter where he ends up.  (Of course there is the Detroit curse on wide receiver choices to overcome.)  He is a fairly polished product coming out of college the test now will be mostly mental, trying to get a handle on the complexities of the Martz offense down as a rookie.  He has the physical skills though to really shine in this offensive scheme.

 

Cleveland – The Browns improved their quarterback and their running back situation by taking the best offensive lineman in the draft, Joe Thomas.  He should be an immediate starter and should have a positive impact; he has great quickness and athleticism.  He will have a learning curve (can be overaggressive) but seems to have the positive attributes associated with good linemen, a certain meanness combined with good team principles.

 

Tampa – Gaines Adams became the first defensive player taken, an impact player in the pass rush he should be able to contribute immediately on an aging defense.  Concern regarding him had been his relatively small size and run defense, which are not as critical in the cover-two scheme.  He is athletic and not particularly polished but should be able to be coached up in this defense.

 

Arizona – The Cardinals answered the prayers of Edge when they drafted Levi Brown with their pick.  He is a big offensive tackle who is very athletic but a slight reach at this spot.  He is a great power blocker who can drive an opponent down the field for an entire play.  Like most linemen coming out of college his technique needs some development, he will have some issues as a rookie but should address a chronic need of this franchise.

 

Washington – The Redskins used their only pick of day one on defense which was not a surprise but went for defensive back, LaRon Landry instead of addressing needs of the front seven.  They did pick the player who was probably the best defender on the board at that point, and he will start immediately.  He will have to be very effective to help a team that was last in sacks in the NFL by a huge margin.

 

Minnesota – The Vikings took Adrian Peterson who slid somewhat on medical concerns.  This is a great place for him to have ended up; the Minnesota offensive line has as much talent as any line in all of the NFL.  He will have to develop as both a blocker and a pass receiver to fit into the version of the west coast offense in use in Minnesota but he should be able to have time to develop.

 

Atlanta – Jamaal Anderson is a classic sort of a defensive end in a four man front who is an outstanding athlete considering his size.  This is another good situation playing opposite of John Abraham he is not going to see a lot of double teams.  Of course part of this selection may have to do with the injury issues at this position.

 

Miami – The Dolphins surprised a bit here by going with Ted Ginn at this point not only because they appear to have greater needs elsewhere but he would seem to be a bit of a reach as well.  An extremely fast player he will need to develop better skills as a route runner and receiver; he will likely have the greatest impact as a rookie in the return game. Miami’s pick of Ginn appears to invite scrutiny, however, if Ginn can contribute on special teams his selection will quite the naysayers.

 

Houston – By picking Amobi Okoye Houston picked the best player on the board at that point, a three technique defensive tackle and extremely athletic he may have as big an upside as any player in the draft.  He is very intelligent and extremely young at nineteen, and still growing; he may add a couple of inches in height and perhaps thirty pounds.

 

San Francisco – Patrick Willis will be immediately helpful to San Francisco as an inside linebacker; he is an instinctive player with good speed and a solid work ethic.  He is decent in pass coverage and can cover the line of scrimmage from sideline to sideline against the run; a key addition to their defense.

 

Buffalo – The Bills took Marshawn Lynch, ignoring the losses they incurred in the off-season on their defense.  Lynch is a power back between the tackles type runner who fits the scheme in Buffalo and runs a lot like Anthony Thomas, who the Bills already have.  He will need to improve as a blocker and a receiver to be on the field for all three downs as a professional, but that is true of most rookie running backs.

 

St Louis – The Rams had to do something to address their defensive front and did so picking defensive end Adam Carriker who will be an immediate starter.  Not noted as a great pass rusher he is durable and excellent against the run.  He is big enough that he may be moved inside to defensive tackle.

 

New York Jets – The first trade of the draft had the Jets move up eleven spots to grab corner Darrelle Revis.  He has good speed but appears to be a little raw and is not a good tackler; he came out early so some development can be expected.  The Jets made this move to fill an area of need and preempt his being taken by Pittsburgh.

 

Pittsburgh – With Revis off the board the Steelers looked to address another need and chose outside linebacker Lawrence Timmons.  He is fast and aggressive and a natural strong side linebacker but not a particularly great fit for the 3-4 of the Steelers.  This pick may indicate that the team will be moving away from that defensive front at some point this season.

 

Green Bay – The Packers take Justin Harrell, a defensive tackle, to keep blockers off of their talented linebacker corps.  This pick looks like a bit of a reach and invites scrutiny given that Harrell missed games with a host of injuries including most of his senior season, and Michigan’s Branch was still on the board.

 

Denver – The Broncos moved up to draft defensive end Jarvis Moss to address their mediocre pass rush.  He is athletic and genuinely quick but is too easily blocked producing inconsistency in his production.  Probably will be used more as a situational pass rusher; he will take some time to learn the pro game.

 

Cincinnati – This is a pick where the best player on the board meets the team’s most pressing need when they drafted cornerback Leon Hall.  He is a very complete player at this position, capable of playing zone or man against all types of receivers and can start immediately.  He is an excellent tackler, somewhat of a lost art among corners.

 

Tennessee – Michael Griffin is capable of playing any position in the defensive backfield and special teams.  He is strong and athletic but not noted for great instincts and had occasional lapses in concentration in college.  Expect him to make an immediate contribution on special teams; he may be picked on a bit as a rookie when on defense.

 

New York Giants – Aaron Ross fills one of a couple of needs for the Giants who had a couple of need choice possibilities at this position.  Ross is solid in pass defense, a bit tentative in run support and needs better recognition skills.  He will start immediately on defense but will need some time to grow into the role; he may also see repetitions as a returner.

 

Jacksonville – They filled a hole when they found free safety Reggie Nelson available at this spot; he should start immediately and be a contributor.  He is quick and athletic with good ball instincts, sometimes plays for the big hit and does not wrap up when he tackles.  This was their probable choice even before they traded picks with Denver.

 

Cleveland – The Browns trade back into the first round to get Brady Quinn, a player they were considering at the third overall pick of the draft.  Quinn should be more than happy to have an opportunity to have Thomas in front of him though, so this may work out well for him.  Quinn is the rookie quarterback most ready to start, he should have a good head start on the playbook, and ultimately ends up in a situation highly geared to success.

 

Kansas City – They have always lacked a solid receiving tandem and take physical wide receiver Dwayne Bowe.  He should start from week one or nearly so and be an upgrade, will be a valuable compliment to Gonzalez in the red zone.  He will need to work improving his route running and concentration catching the ball.

 

New England – Brandon Merriweather is a good value pick for the Patriots who obviously hope can eventually replace Rodney Harrison.  At this point he should be able to start almost at once and has the speed, athleticism, instincts, and versatility to play almost anywhere in the defensive backfield.  Some concerns about character but the Patriots have enough leadership to keep him on task.

 

Carolina – The Panthers have a variety of needs, and were wise to trade down for extra picks, they  still got their man in linebacker Jon Beason.  He is athletic and has good quickness up and down the line of scrimmage and can theoretically play any of the linebacker spots.  He is a bit undersized, particularly in this defense where he might be called upon to fill in for the oft injured Dan Morgan.

 

Dallas – Traded with Philadelphia to pick defensive end Anthony Spencer who will play outside linebacker in their 3-4.  He is a very quick player and he has good pass rushing skills and excellent instincts.  He may get exploited in pass coverage situations but should get better over time. OT Joe Thomas stated that Spencer was his hardest opponent to block in College.

 

New Orleans – They surprised here going for a wide receiver, Robert Meachem, when it seemed like their most pressing needs were on the other side of the ball.  He has the capabilities in terms of size and speed to develop into a top level receiver, but it may take time.  Needs to work on his routes and does not play consistently.

 

San Francisco – Traded back into the first round after trading up earlier they looked to improve their offensive line by taking tackle Joe Staley.  Probably the most athletic tackle in the draft besides Thomas and that is a close call; he converted from tight end and will need some time and coaching to improve his technique.  He may not be ready to play left tackle but could play some on the right side this season.

 

Baltimore – The Ravens needed to address their offensive line and did so taking guard Ben Grubbs.  He is athletic, strong, and intelligent; he can make blocks at the linebacker level.  While he will play as a rookie he is a transplanted defensive lineman and will need to work on refining his technique.  He is more of a mauler at this point but that fits the Ravens style on the line.

 

San Diego – Looking for another offensive threat they selected wide receiver, Craig Davis.  He looks like a bit of a reach here.  Good straight line speed but somewhat inconsistent in both concentration and route running.  The Chargers look like they will use him to stretch the field and his presence may open up underneath routes. Interesting the AFC West ended up with three players in the first round from LSU.

 

Chicago – After missing out last year on the bumper crop of tight ends the number one receiving tight end in this draft fell to them in the form of Greg Olsen.  He is an accomplished pass catching tight end that has great hands but is a mediocre (at best) blocker.  With teams in their division going to the cover-two defense Olsen is the perfect weapon to exploit those opportunities as very few linebackers can hope to cover him.

 

Indianapolis – The Colts pick Anthony Gonzalez, a receiver consistent with their offense and a more than adequate replacement for Stokley.  He is intelligent with a good work ethic and has great quickness and a burst.  Runs precise routes but occasionally loses concentration on the catch and is not particularly physical.

 

Observations

 

The draft continues to be more and more of a spectacle every season.  It has taken on a role that really is not justified by the actual function performed.  Most of the players taken in the draft will not have significant playing careers and a very few will have an impact this season.  What happened last year with so many significant offensive contributors (about a dozen) was an aberration and will not be repeated this season and probably not for several years to come.

 

Still everyone is an optimist in the off-season and with the parity in the league fortunes can change very quickly.  Then again sometimes they don’t; smart teams continue to be “lucky” while chronically bad teams seem mired in mediocrity.  Still a few teams will have their records improve, apparently dramatically, due to any number of reasons which seldom include the draft.

 

A dramatic shift in fortunes is created by some combination of long range planning and good fortune, usually in the form of fewer key injuries.  If the team you follow is looking to turn things around pay attention to their strength and conditioning coach and how they are doing in their voluntary workout participation.  You build teams through practice, and healthy teams are generally winning teams.

 

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com