Unobstructed View

Evaluating the draft just held is futile, you can offer an educated guess, but the actual test comes over careers of those chosen.  So at this point the analyst is left looking at team needs and trying to figure out how well those were met by a team’s draft.  Of course there are still a number of other player moves available to teams to address those needs, trades and skimming the pool of released players both come into play at this time and as the training camp season proceeds the waiver wire will come into play.

Grades are a popular method to evaluate a team’s draft; they are simple and easily understood, why buck a trend?  It is of course much more complex than that.  When you look at the draft the question is not only did the player meet the need but also the value of that player compared to others available at that point in the draft that might meet other needs.  The idea is that every selection has a relative value or weight that would be different for each team.  The grades here look at the needs and upside while deducting for the level of risk involved.

Every pick has risk; even moves that looked very good on draft day can go bad due to injury or mischance but here we are looking at predictable risk.  One risk that everyone carries is adjustment to the NFL; some players look very promising but for any of a number of reasons never make the transition.  Another risk is in matching; the team may simply not be a good fit for a particular talent.  The position where this appears to happen most often would be quarterbacks where being pressed into service too early in their careers often seems to destroy their confidence.

The Scorecard

Oakland – They had many opportunities drafting eleven players overall and one of the five or so players with the largest potential payoffs but also the one with the greatest risk all of them.  This does not seem like a good match for Russell but getting rid of Moss and adding McCown are both moves that enhance his chances.  They picked up a very interesting player in Michael Bush; if healthy he could be a difference maker.  They might have looked at improving their offensive line more in the draft.  B- (B+ with post draft moves)

Detroit – The Lions defied history when they picked Calvin Johnson but he was the best player in the draft and has relatively little risk attached to him.  They seem to have reached for Stanton, whose risk is substantial, in the second round and ignored their offensive line a weakness of the team except for fourth round pick Ramirez who doesn’t seem athletic enough for this offense, they really needed a tackle also and didn’t get one.  C+

Cleveland – The Browns did a nice job getting the best offensive tackle in the draft and also getting a potential franchise quarterback.  Wright is also a great talent albeit a risk but this gives the Browns three potential starters a good haul in any draft.  Cleveland may have overpaid a bit for their moves to get Quinn and Wright but the payoff looks pretty good here, particularly if Thomas can be as dominate in the NFL as he was in college.  A-

Tampa Bay – Like most teams at the top of the draft they had a number of needs to address in the draft.  Gaines Adams will help the defensive pass rush, which is a crucial defensive requirement for the cover-two defense.  Another defensive addition who may pay off exceptionally is linebacker Quincy Black who is almost ideal for this defense; all in all they moved to get younger on defense a critical team requirement at this point.  B+

Arizona – The Cardinals certainly had to be one of the heavy winners of the draft, Brown and Branch are at least 650 lbs between the two of them and both are going to start and play significant roles this season.  They addressed most of their pressing needs with those picks though Brown was a slight reach.  They did not sufficiently address other parts of their defense where they need depth.  B

Washington – The analysis of the Washington draft is always fairly simple since they never seem to have many picks, no exception this year.  LaRon Landry has great potential and his addition gives the Redskins one of the top defensive backfields in the NFL.  Unfortunately they will be defending for a long time given the state of the Redskin pass rush or lack thereof.  Washington needs to change their approach and conserve draft picks, their depth is terrible and this is a primary factor because they are not bringing players up through their system.  D+

Minnesota – If Peterson can get and stay healthy this pick should work out really well given the talent on the Viking offensive line.  Of course their greatest offensive need was to find a number one receiver which they tried to address with their second pick and Rice could turn out well, but they could use a second and third receiver as well.  If they can get McCauley, a cornerback, coached up to be a starter this will have been a solid draft.  B

Atlanta – They did a nice job picking up help on both the defensive and offensive lines with their first two picks (Anderson and Blaylock).  The pick up of Chris Houston was also solid giving them three likely starters this season from the draft.  They had other needs on defense and have had two injuries to the unit in the past two weeks.  Still this was a solid draft.  B+

Miami – This could be a good draft but it does not rate to be.  The Dolphins reached for Ginn a player who is fast but an unpolished receiver who is on the small side he will help immediately in the return game but will need substantial development as a receiver.  They did attempt to address their offensive line issues until later in the draft.  How much help they will get this season from this draft is questionable.  C-

Houston – They picked another defensive lineman with their first pick, but this pick caused less controversy; the age of Okoye may increase his risk but his upside is huge.  They might have looked at a linebacker at some point before round seven if they were looking to upgrade the overall defense. They needed more help for the offensive line; they invested a lot to get Schaub and protecting him should have been more of a priority.  C

San Francisco – They went heavily toward defense in the draft and it looks like it will pay off not only with their first round pick Willis but also Ray McDonald.  They got a lot better on defense with this draft.  Offense is a little more of a question, though athletic, Staley is a project.  They had a substantial need for wide receivers and found only one though potentially a good one in Hill.  B+

Buffalo – Lynch was a reach on a couple of levels for the Bills but their second choice, Posluszny, certainly was not.  This is a team that had substantial losses in the off season, particularly defensively, that the draft did little to fix and they already had other issues.  They needed to fill immediate holes at linebacker and cornerback but they also need to shore up their offensive line which did not happen.  C+

St Louis – The Rams took another defensive lineman, a recurring theme in their drafts of late, and while Carriker is considered a defensive end he will likely be rotated inside.  They needed to get more immediate help for their defensive backfield than Wade would seem likely to supply this season.  Their interior offensive line could have used more help than they received.  C+

New York Jets – They made a big and expensive trade to get their first round pick cornerback Revis.   Harris was also a solid pick for them, and will help but again they gave away a lot to get him.  They might have been better off to save those picks as they have plenty of other needs to be met on the offensive and defensive lines.  C-

Pittsburgh – The pick of Timmons looks like a concession to playing a 4-3 defensive front at least part of the time though Woodley looks a bit like the classical defensive end/linebacker tweener prevalent in the 3-4.  They could have done more to help their offensive line which was uncharacteristically soft last season.  B-

Green Bay – They had eleven picks but quantity is not a substitute for quality for a team that seems to be a few players away from breaking through.  Harrell was both a reach and a risk in the first round; both he and Jackson have substantial injury histories.  The best looking pick they had for immediate impact might be Rouse in the third round.  C-

Denver – The Broncos picked defensive ends with their first two choices which in their case was a good move.  Their biggest weakness last season was the inability to get a consistent pass rush going so they are looking to address that deficiency here they will likely rotate.  They might have done more to add depth to the offensive line.  B-

Cincinnati – Hall was a nice pick in that he filled an immediate need and definitely is a high character prospect.  Also a team that is very close they really did not have a lot of unmet needs to fill.  They added depth on the defense and a couple of offensive linemen who can be developed over time.  Not a spectacular draft but a sound one.  B-

Tennessee – They have many holes to fill, more than they had draft picks for.  Griffin was a solid pick in the first round but they had needs everywhere and Henry in the second round seems like a luxury they could not afford at that point.  While they did pick three wide receivers none of them seems consistent enough to make an impact this season.  D+

New York Giants – They certainly needed to get a quality corner in this draft and did so but they also needed to get some immediate linebacker help and they did not; DeOssie looks to be a bit of a project.  They also had to get some help along the offensive line which doesn’t seem likely to materialize this season at least from this draft crop.  D+

Jacksonville – They did really well when they traded down and still got their first choice in the draft Nelson a free safety; Durant is a solid choice at linebacker.  Walker should help a receiving corps that needs it, but the offense could have used more help than it got.  In light of their quarterback issues it was odd they did not look to draft one for development purposes.  B-

Kansas City – Bowe has a good chance to help solve their perpetual issues at wide receiver combining both size and speed he should have immediate impact.  The Chiefs then got two potential starters at defensive tackle which continues the upgrade of their defense.  These were good additions but the Chiefs have lost three pro bowl linemen in two years and needed to get better there, Taylor the only lineman they drafted is more likely to be a guard than a tackle and not likely this season.  B-

New England – The Patriots seemed to make some trades just to be making trades since they had few needs, Meriweather was a solid pick.  It is hard to imagine though that more than four of these picks are likely to make it through training camp; they might have been better off moving up rather than back.  Otherwise they picked up some depth for the offensive line which was needed and additional defensive depth.  B+

Carolina – They needed a lot and got a lot, their early picks might all be potential starters this season; linebacker Beason, receiver Jarrett, center Kalil and defensive end Johnson.  The rest of their picks are good developmental and depth options virtually every pick has a good chance to make this team which is not at all common.  They could have used more help along the offensive line but Kalil could start as a guard also.  A-

Dallas – Dallas did a lot of trading for no apparent purpose, getting Cleveland's first-rounder next year aside they did not have a lot of needs to address and might have been better off trading up in most cases than back.  Given the issues they had with their defensive backfield they let that slide until the seventh round, perhaps they felt the increased pass rush that Spencer affords them to be a compensating value.  C-

New Orleans – Meachem is a value pick but they really needed first round talent their defensive back seven not at receiver.  Given their defensive issues it seems odd that the draft was so heavily weighted to offense where they indeed got good depth in most places (did not get a receiving tight end) but at a cost.  Given how close this team is the draft was disappointing.  C-

Baltimore – They had an immediate need for offensive linemen and started with Grubbs, a good fit for their style and even picked up some more developmental candidates for the offensive line.  Figurs is clearly a project at receiver but could be an immediate impact player as a returner with his speed.  They could have stood to add some more depth on defense.  B-

San Diego – The Chargers went for a speed receiver in Davis who they expect to open up underneath routes for their bread and butter players but this seemed like a bit of a reach.  Weddle a corner, filled a critical need and he is likely to start week one.  Other choices were largely for defensive depth but they failed to get depth for the offensive line.  C-

Chicago – Olsen was a good choice in the first round but somewhat of a no-brainer at that point.  The rest of their draft seems shrouded in haze though as they did not manage to take an offensive lineman until the fourth round with a line that is one of the oldest in the NFL and doesn’t have much depth.  They look like they needed some depth and perhaps immediate help at defensive tackle where have injury issues and did not get any help.  D+

Indianapolis – Gonzalez figures to be an immediate starter and is a great fit for this team both in talent and personality. Offensive tackle Ugoh looks like the eventual replacement for Glenn and under the tutelage of line coach Mudd should be able to step in when called upon.  Still it was the defense that needed attention and got it throughout the rest of the draft.  The Colts have done this so often, reloading the defense with late round picks, it is hard to discount this group fitting into their scheme.  B+

Philadelphia – With their first pick the Eagles reached for a quarterback Kolb who seemed likely to be available much later.  They did not manage to find a receiver out of this wide-out filled draft class. Looking at their needs from last season one might have expected a bit more focus on the defensive backfield, more so than two second day picks would suggest.  D-

Seattle – Their pick of cornerback Wilson adds a likely nickel back but he seems like a reach even at the point he was chosen.  They did look to beef up their run defense as well with Mebane but he does not seem like an immediate contributor either.  It isn’t clear that Seattle managed to get a starter out of this draft.  D

Observations

Two points here that probably need more development later; first there were a number of reaches in this draft and trades that did not seem strictly necessary.  Evaluators seem to have fallen for their own “finds” and not been patient enough to wait.  Moves like this distort the draft; but when they work are genius and when they don’t are something less.  These particular moves (see Kolb) will take time to justify.

One contrarian strategy occurs to me out of a draft like this.  Where linemen and receivers are deep one might expect that as training camps get into swing the waiver wire will have some decent journeymen to choose from in these categories as teams choose to develop the rookies for their long term potential over solid backups.  This might mitigate some teams choices anticipating finding their needed depth from quality players cut lose.  It might turn out that a team can still find what it needs later.

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com