AFC West Preview & Team Reports

By Dale Sims & Kurt Schumacher

San Diego is arguably the most talented team in the NFL so everything here should be clear you would think, but not so fast.  Teams, specifically the successful ones, rely to some degree on their chemistry between players but also among coaches.  The Chargers have changed the entire coaching staff, the implications of that may not be immediately clear, and there is another quality team lurking around if San Diego should have any problems coming into the season.  The division plays the AFC East and crosses over to the NFC North, which will not be the most difficult of schedules.

San Diego                    12-4

Denver                          11-5

Oakland                        6-10

Kansas City                  5-11

San Diego

San Diego looks to have some of the best talent in the NFL but the coaching staff has had wholesale changes.  The new coaching staff aligns pretty well with the previous one in terms of scheme, but there may be some confusion in the early stages of transition so there is some danger of stumbling coming out of the gate against Chicago and/or New England.  The New England game in particular could come back to haunt them when the playoffs come around.  Their defense has undergone some changes; the loss of linebacker Donnie Edwards, and the instability at safety is going to be hard to make-up.  This makes the defense somewhat weaker up the middle while the team figures out how to adjust.  Still the offense has tremendous weapons available and the defense will make enough big plays to beat most teams.  Rivers now has a full season of experience after a reasonable rookie season, with Tomlinson and Gates as primary weapons the offense should be solid. 

Though San Diego plays a first place schedule, there are some relatively easy games where they should be heavy favorites against at least 5 non-division opponents who did not make the playoffs last year; and they get some of their tougher match-ups at home.  Chicago, Indy, and Baltimore; and they travel to New England and Jacksonville. All in all, considering they play in a relatively weak division, this is a very manageable schedule

Denver

Denver looks to have the best defensive backfield in the NFL. They improved their defensive line in the draft and getting those players worked in effectively will be the task of new defensive coordinator Jim Bates; who is one of the more highly regarded DC's in the league.  Not having middle linebacker Al Wilson, on the field, may cost something in terms of continuity and leadership.  On offense, they are still playing musical running backs adding Travis Henry and trading Tatum Bell, but Henry fits this scheme pretty well and should excel.  Last season the offensive line was not quite up to the normal Denver standards but the running game did not particularly suffer.  They have shuffled the line around a bit and expect it to be the finely tuned instrument of prior seasons in which case this will be a difficult team to beat.  Cutler got some on the job experience last season and expectations are high but there is still a learning curve left for him.  Plummer used to frustrate Shanahan with his untimely turnovers, expect Cutler to cut down on those giveaways. If the defense plays to their talent, and the offense develops without any significant setbacks for Cutler, this team should find their way into the playoffs; and if San Diego stumbles for any reason we won’t be surprised if they flat out win the AFC West.

Oakland

Oakland is a difficult team to make projections for.  They are actually very talented and they have a solid defensive unit that is almost good enough to win some games on their own.  The offensive line has been the Achilles heel of this team and it is hard to see any evidence that they have improved substantially from a talent prospective.  Still line play is as much about attitude as anything else and the change in coaching may find something to build with there. The new OL coach, Tom Cable, helped the Atlanta Falcons rank at or near the top in league rushing for the past 3 years. Cable inherits a mobile QB in likely starter Josh McCown. If they could get even average play from that line they could surprise everyone and net something close to eight wins, but that remains to be seen.

Kansas City

Kansas City has moved into rebuilding mode.  The offensive line was once the strength of this team but they have lost their best three players there (at least two Hall of Fame class players) over the past two seasons and will need some time before that unit gets itself established.  Changing quarterbacks is unlikely to help the offensive continuity either so expect some growing pains on offense.  There may be problems with Larry Johnson who will be a free agent next season if something cannot be worked out there are concerns of a possible hold out in training camp.  The Chiefs have made some progress on the defensive line and may be slightly better overall on that side of the ball.  That defense rates to be on the field a lot though, unless they can get some offensive continuity going. With the questions on both sides of the line, lack of a deep threat at wide-out, and questions in the secondary, we’ll pick the Chiefs to land in the cellar.

Summary

San Diego is a very popular choice as a Super Bowl team and with good reason but there are many reasons to be cautious here despite the obvious talent.  One issue that they face is going cross-country to play a night game at New England in week two.  This game has obvious playoff implications and takes place as the team is just coming into the season with a new set of coaches, and after playing a good Chicago team.  If they have any early season problems they could even find themselves in a battle for the division title with Denver.

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