AFC South Report
By Dale Sims &
Kurt Schumacher
We still see the AFC
South being dominated by the Colts as usual.
This situation just does not seem likely to change this season,
perhaps next year, perhaps not.
While Indianapolis
is probably not quite as good as last season, the rebuilding teams are
still rebuilding and
Jacksonville
is still a good team that cannot quite get over the top because of
inconsistent offense. The
rotation puts this division up against the NFC South and the AFC West a
somewhat easier overall schedule on balance.
Indianapolis
12-4
Jacksonville
10-6
Tennessee
6-10
Houston
4-12 (+)
Indianapolis
Under considerable cap
pressure,
Indianapolis
lost several key pieces of their Super Bowl defense.
Of course, they are always under cap pressure and this is a
familiar theme. Still they
will need to rebuild their entire secondary and will likely suffer some
growing pains in that process.
They have been able to win during the season with a defense that
has been inconsistent at best.
However, in the playoffs that same defense really played well,
getting them through Baltimore when the offense did not seem to be
clicking. Offensively they
added some interesting weapons. Gonzales
is an accurate route runner who should thrive playing out of the slot
and Ugoh looks to be the eventual replacement for Glenn at tackle.
This is still probably the best offense in the NFL, to get where
they ended up last season though seems like it would be asking a lot
given the defensive challenges they face.
Indy has been playing
a tougher non-division schedule for years, and will pose a match-up
problem whoever they face. However, Colts fans should temper their
expectations of a Superbowl repeat – even winning the division may not
be automatic; consider this year their exclusive non-division slate is
New England and Baltimore.
They also draw New Orleans,
Denver, and San Diego – all of whom
should be in the playoff hunt. Last year Indy was a little lucky to get
to the big game (as most SB champs are), the Colts did not have to face
San Diego, and the Pats lost their best defensive player, Richard
Seymour, during the 2nd half of the AFC championship.
Sure, they’ll be in the mix this year, but a play-off berth is
not going to be automatic, and if they split their division games again
this season they may not make the play-offs.
Jacksonville
Jacksonville
has no clear weaknesses except for the apparent lack of confidence they
have in their quarterback.
The team needs to focus on why they had two losses against lowly Houston last year and then
with the playoffs in sight lost three in a row to end the season.
They have an underachieving receiver corps and their offensive
line play has been average overall.
Still if they could get an average performance from their passing
game, they could possibly challenge for the division, as their running
game is solid, perhaps the change in offensive coordinator will make a
difference. Defense
continues to be the strength here if they can get and stay healthy which
has been a problem; they have the all of the pieces needed to continue
as one of the top defensive units in the NFL.
The schedule is such
that if they can win the games they’re supposed they could contend for
the division title. The
Texans for some reason has always given them trouble – and they finish
out the season playing at Houston – that contest
could determine whether they make the playoffs or not.
Tennessee
The Titans surprised
many last season and Vince Young had a great start; this season could
build on that but it probably will not.
The nature of the NFL is that defensive coordinators will get
things figured out and everyone playing
Tennessee
will have had an off-season to watch the film on Young.
There is a lack of other weapons on offense and significant
questions at the running back position; this could be a long season for
Young. Then there is the
Pacman issue, which takes away the best player from an otherwise
mediocre secondary and hurts the return game.
In the face of those issues there
is little that Tennessee actually accomplished to get
substantially better during the offseason. However, coach Fisher always
seems to get something out of nothing – so don’t be surprised if the
Titans pull off an upset or two along the way.
Houston
Houston
is still a team with too many questions and not enough answers.
The management decided to change quarterbacks and paid dearly to
wrest Matt Schaub from Atlanta.
This is a somewhat questionable football decision since he is
very similar in his style and skill set to Carr.
Since he will still be playing behind essentially the same lousy
offensive line this may not be that much of an upgrade.
The offense, despite adding three running backs in free agency,
has concerns at running back so the questions on offense are everywhere.
They did draft a couple of linemen but they do not seem likely to
have that great of an impact this season.
The defense last season upgraded both talent last season and
performance, and has added more talent in the draft, this could become a
very good unit; but will not be nearly good enough to overcome the
apparent shortcomings of that offense.
Summary
Well more of the same
seems to be the watchword of this division.
There could be some chance that Jacksonville
could overtake Indianapolis
but it has been shown to be bad form to bet against Manning’s abilities
to overcome the limitations of his defense.
Jacksonville
will also have to win all the games that they are supposed to win,
something that has eluded them recently if they are going to make the
playoffs. Vince Young will
have to be winning them single handedly for
Tennessee
to reach eight wins this season, both the defense and the offense look
to be worse off than last season’s group.
Houston may be starting to
turn it around but a season, or more, may be needed to overcome the
deficiencies of that offensive line.
All things considered the Colts are the play to make to win the
division title, and make another run at a Superbowl title.
The oddsmakers appear
to have a good read on this division totals – as there does not appear
to be a good totals play within the AFC South.
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