AFC North Report, Division Picks and Team Preview

By Dale Sims & Kurt Schumacher

The AFC North

This appears to be the strongest division in the NFL; overall, there are three very solid teams that have legitimate playoff hopes, and an also ran.  This is a talented division top to bottom but some of this talent is more effectively used.  Last season we called Baltimore to win the division, one of the few prognosticators to do so but we're calling on the balance of power to shift again.  In terms of scheduling the division plays against the AFC East and the surprisingly competitive NFC West.  This will lead to challenging schedules for each of the teams in this division, whose winner is unlikely to be decided before the last week of the season.

            Cincinnati         11 – 5 (+)

            Pittsburgh         10 – 6

            Baltimore           9 – 7

            Cleveland          4 – 12

Cincinnati

Whether Henry learns anything from his suspension or not the Bengals gain more than they lose simply by not having the distraction of him around for half of the season.  A year more for his knee to recover and an off-season to prepare rather than rehab will have Palmer in fine form; he is ready to step up which means the offense should be prolific.  Expect them to be balanced on offense and aggressive on defense. It is on the defensive side of the ball that most of the uncertainty exists.  The Bengals did some shopping for defense on the free agent market and picked up a likely day one starter in the draft.  They have made other defensive moves without ever getting it right on the field.  If they can get this group together early enough in the season this could be a formidable team in the AFC.  Even with these questions, they appear to be the class of this division.

In a competitive division the Bengals benefit by drawing Tennessee and Kansas City as their exclusive non-division opponents. They also benefit by drawing Miami Florida late in the year, when the humidity will be a non-factor. They could very well go 4-1 in their non-division road games. They also get New England at HOME, who will be coming off a division contest. Vegas has Baltimore as the favorite to win the division this year, However, we feel rather strongly that Cincinnati will top the 9.5 win total the odds makers have them slotted for - and to win their division by 1-2 games.

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh underperformed last season for a variety of reasons and should bounce back a bit, but a change in the coaching staff and changes in schemes on both sides of the ball argue for caution.  The offensive line has started to show a bit of age, while they did pick up some developmental players in the draft it could be too little too late if issues develop this year.  The defense will be getting better and may undergo a change of scheme.  Expect the offense to be a bit more open, passing to set up the run at times.  Davenport, if he has something left in the tank, could reprise the Bettis role in short yardage situations.

The Steelers draw Jacksonville and Denver as their non-division exclusive opponents - two tough match-ups for them that could go either way. They also have to travel to St. Louis, who will give them some match-up problems on the carpet. Look for the outcome of the final game at Baltimore to determine whether they make the play-offs or not.

Baltimore

The Ravens are rebuilding on the fly, the off-season was not kind to the Ravens who lost talent and depth on both sides of the ball..  The change to McGahee should add some life to the running game.  The offensive line will have to do better though and will be starting a rookie at guard and it has problems beyond that with Pashos and Mulitalo playing elsewhere.  The defense will still be formidable but not as consistently dominant.  Expect to see a more open and aggressive offense.  The team should be feeling a certain amount of urgency as the leadership continues to age.

The schedule maker was not kind to the Ravens, matching them up with the two top teams in the AFC, Indianapolis and San Diego for their non-division exclusive opponents (wherein they will be fortunate to earn a split). They do get a bye before traveling to Pittsburgh, and if they can get a road win there it could mean the difference in their play-off aspirations.

Cleveland

The good news is that Cleveland did quite well in the draft; the bad news is that they almost had to.  If they can get healthy, they will be more competitive than last season but that does not say much.  They should be better along the offensive line but need a better running threat than Jamal Lewis, the passing game should have more time though and they have talent in the receiving corps.  One of their problems in the win loss column this season is they play in a division with three of the better teams in the NFL.

Summary

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