AFC East Report

By Dale Sims & Kurt Schumacher

The AFC East lines up against the AFC North, which looks to be one of the strongest divisions in the NFL, and the NFC East which is the best division in that conference so the schedules for the AFC East teams are among the most difficult in the league.  Considering that the Jets and Bills fielded rather poor run defenses last season, and have done little this year to change that trend, the high number of run-oriented offenses they will face this year projects to a difficult season. Miami has their own issues as they will be learning new schemes on both sides of the ball, and have issues on the O-line and with quality depth.

New England looks to be the class of this division as has been the case for the past several seasons, last season they were a good team and they added talent for this season.  The Jets should continue to improve but that may not be reflected in the win column, they too have added talent, but last season they clearly over-achieved in what may have been the best coaching job ever by a new head coach and staff.  Unfortunately for them it seems likely that they will not get to the playoffs this season given the overall talent in the AFC.  Buffalo and Miami are both rebuilding and are not likely to be significant factors in the division race.  Our win/loss projections for the AFC East:

New England                 12 - 4

New York Jets               8 - 8

Buffalo                         8 - 8

Miami                           4-12

New England

The Patriots had a great looking off-season and for the most part drafted well. There are still some questions remaining, the linebacker corps is aging; picking up Thomas helped there but he will be playing on the inside which somewhat neutralizes the advantage of his great mobility.  The offensive line is reliable and solid and should key a prolific offense.  They have added some very talented receivers, Stallworth, Moss, and Welker and the offense should be capable of scoring on any given play.  The ability to stretch the field will make the running game more effective.  The special teams play also looks likely to improve just by virtue of the depth they have added.  The Patriots have deviated a bit from their approach of getting players that fit the scheme to getting players that they believe they can make fit.  It will be interesting to see how Moss fits in here but it is hard to imagine his lackadaisical effort being tolerated or that he will change.  In any case it seems unlikely that they would let him become a distraction.

New York Jets

The Jets were the surprise team of last season, they out played their talent level considerably.  While they are better this year it might be a bit more difficult to do as well in the win/loss column, as they are still in the re-building process.  They have made the most strides on defensive where the personnel they have added are a better fit to the scheme; there are still some exploitable weaknesses though in the middle of their 3-4.  The offensive line should be better with a year of experience and much better talent at running back where Thomas Jones should be a big improvement.  They are a bit thin in depth on both offense and defense which tends to show up as deficiencies in special teams play, though coaching can cover this a bit.

Buffalo

Buffalo has a number of issues going into the season.  They lost a lot of talent and leadership on their defense in free agency, and it will be difficult to replace. If the targeted replacements step up and deliver then the Bills will prove to be a tough out for opposing teams; but there are several unproven projected starters on defense. Those unanswered questions do not bode well for projecting the Bills defensive potency this season. Still, the defense showed signs of life last season, and the Bills appear to have planned for the free agency departure of their aging high priced stars.  On offense they look to have improved along the line, and last season Losman seems to have developed into a legitimate starting NFL quarterback.  They also lost their top running back in free agency, and will likely have to start Anthony Thomas until they can get their rookie first rounder, Marshawn Lynch, into the lineup.  They look likely to be using more three-receiver sets this year since they have no fullback on their roster, but their depth at the wide-out position may be a bit thin. Considering the schedule and improved play down the stretch, a .500 season seems realistic... a small venture on Buffalo and the OVER looks attractive to us.

Miami

This team is both in rebuilding mode and in turmoil and it is hard to see what the season holds for them.  This does not appear to be a fundamentally sound team at this point, there are certainly many questions in Miami this season and some of the answers they have currently are likely to be insufficient.  They are looking at problems just about everywhere starting with quarterback.  Culpepper might be healthy, but looks to be exiting Miami. Cleo Lemon could surprise, but they have Trent Green and he looks to get the starting nod, but who knows how he’ll react after his first good hit to the head; whoever starts has to survive behind a very questionable offensive line.  The defense holds some hope but is aging and likely to be on the field a lot.

Summary

With the difficulty of the schedules here, only the division winner seems likely to make the playoffs this year, though the Jets do have an outside chance.  Little seems likely to deter the Patriots from winning the division unless injuries mount up early on the defensive side of the ball, or they allow themselves to become distracted.  Still while New England has Super Bowl type talent they are likely to find themselves on the road at some point during the playoffs just because of the difficulty of their schedule.

Outside of Miami, our win / loss projections for the AFC East closely mirror the forecasts of Vegas. Consider that Miami plays the NYG in London and they essentially have an extra road game.  They have just 1 non-division home game where they will likely be favored - Oakland. On the road they face two non-division foes where they should be competitive - Houston and Cleveland. If the Fish can split with the Jets and Bills they may win 5 games.  That puts Miami two wins under Vegas' projection of 7 wins - and makes them an attractive UNDER wager.

Return to NFL team Reports & Division Previews