2006 NFL Mock - Post Draft Thoughts

Presented by Kurt Schumacher

First off lets dispel this "you can't really grade a draft till 3-5 years down the road" myth. True, hindsight is bullet proof, and there is an element of luck and life circumstance involved in a players successful NFL career. For instance, no one can predict injuries, or how a player may interact with coaching or player personalities, which may make or break a player's development. That said, every team has available to them a comprehensive grading system on every potential NFL player. These grades are available for a nominal fee to the general public by any number of scouting services; and EVERY NFL team makes their draft picks with at least some consideration given to a players draft grade. 

Every team uses a NFL draft value chart used to establish draft position value. Most draft trades come close to matching the value ratings in this chart.  Thus, based on the draft value chart; widely available pre-draft player grades, and team needs,  it is entirely feasible to grade out a draft based on the information currently known of each player. Especially players drafted in the first round, who are by and large drafted with the expectation of contributing on the field right away.

The top 7 blue chip players available in this draft, and they went in some order to the top 7 drafting teams. There were 4 players that graded out heads and tails above the rest of the draftees. These 4 players went to the top 4 teams in the draft. There was another block of 3 players that graded out a notch below. Then there were another 5 players whose pre-draft grades projected them to have a higher probability of being successful NFL players. After those 12 players there is not much difference in quality form the 13th to the 34th hole. Furthermore,  many an NFL talent evaluator has stated the talent projected to be available in this years draft, in the 2 and 3rd rounds is very near in value to what talent is available in the middle of the 1st round.

The first round of the draft is an exciting time, an opportunity for each NFL team to improve their talent base. Within those criteria, we will grade out this years 1st round picks, using a standard A-D grading system:

A =  Need meets value, or acquired player with much higher draft grade ranking, from where he was drafted.

B+  = Need meets value

B = Need or Value

C =  Average, may have reached a bit for a player to fill a need

D = You really fucked up

1) Houston - A:  They made the agonizing decision to pass on Reggie Bush.  Not a bad one given they already have a dominant RB on the roster.  Playmaking DE's are hard to come by, and Mario Williams is projected to be a good one. A solid decision for the team with the leagues worst defense.

2) New Orleans - A:  They bagged the consensus most talented player in the draft in RB Reggie Bush at the two hole. Bush is a bona-fide threat to score anytime the ball is in his hands. LT was a greater need, but Bush will sell tickets.

3) Tennessee - A:  Vince Young is a rare athletic talent, He may not be NFL ready this season, but is projected by the majority of scouts to have a higher upside potential two years down the road.

4) NY Jets - A: B'rickashaw Ferguson is projected to be a 10 year starter at LT. While not in the Walter Jones category, Ferguson is widely regarded as a potential top 10 left tackle; and those type of players just don't make it to free agency. Nice pick.

5) Green Bay - B+: There is widely regarded to be a significant drop in draft grade value (of about .75 percent) from the 4th player to the 5th through 8th player.  That said the Packers filled a need by acquiring the highest rated linebacker on the board in AJ Hawk.

6) San Francisco -  B+: TE Vernon Davis, this guy is already being compared to Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez (as opposed to Crumpler or Shockey).  The Niners lost virtually their entire receiving corps this off-season... Davis is the best receiver in the draft, and fills a huge need for San Fran and their young QB Alex Smith - a safety outlet receiving threat, who can run after the catch.

7) Oakland - B+: DB Michael Huff, the Raiders scored by bagging the highest rated player left in the draft, and he fills a need to boot. Huff is a hard working natural talent who is a playmaker anywhere in the secondary. The Raiders did the right thing passing on Leinart, because they just simply do not have a good history of developing QB's.

8) Buffalo - D: They simply fucked up. Yes, we'll concede that after the top 7 picks there was a significant drop-off in talent available from the 7-hole to the 8th hole. However, the Bills (who have several holes to fill) could have picked up one of the top two DT's in this spot and gotten good value for their draft placement. Instead they drafted safety  Donte' Whitner, who was widely regarded as a low 1st round selection, and in no instance was rated higher than an 18th selection in any mock draft we've seen. Using the highly regarded ourlads.com draft value ranking (linked above) the Bills over valued Whitner by 500 points. That's another 2nd round pick! If Buffalo was all hot for Whitner they should have traded down, acquired another draft pick (which they certainly could use), and taken Donte' later in the draft. Drafting Whitner here was a screw-up of monumental proportion. 

Buffalo is a rebuilding team, with many needs - they simply cannot be making these types of mistakes at this level - it's inexusable.

9) Detroit - B: Need meets value in the form of LB Ernie Sims. Some had Sims rated higher on their draft boards than Hawk.

10) Arizona - A: QB Matt Leinart gives Arizona a viable back-up to the oft-injured Kurt Warner. Our bet is Leinart fell into a nice situation and will excel in the desert. 

11) Denver (traded from St. Louis) - QB Jay Cutler. I'm going to break from my grading system and give Denver an A grade; partly because Shanahan obviously recognized (finally) that he would never win the big one with Plummer at QB (Jake continues to fizzle under pressure).  Shanny is a master at creating mismatches in the opponents secondary with his offensive schemes (Plummer never quite grasped the intricacies of this system). And Jay Cutler is a QB who simply has the potential to be great in Shanahan's system in 2-3 years.

Because of this move I'll bet that Denver wins a Superbowl sometime within the next 5 years. 

12) Baltimore - B: Haloti N'gata is a two-gap load. Excellent acquisition for the Ravens and their defensive scheme.

13) Cleveland - B: DE Kamerion Wimbley - Need meets value, should provide a solid edge rush and has ability to play the run well.

14) Philadelphia - B: DT Broderick Bunkley - Nice value getting a player who slipped a few slots, fits their system, and fills a great need for the Eagles.

15) St. Louis - B: CB Tye Hill - He definitely fills a need for the Rams sieve like secondary. And they get an extra selection for trading down with Denver. Nice move for a team with several holes to fill on defense.

16) Miami - B: DB Jason Allen can play either FS or CB, He is a nice fit for HC Saban's intricate and widely respected secondary schemes.

17) Minnesota - B: LB Chad Greenway fills a need, and should help shore-up a porous run defense.

18) Dallas - B-minus:   LB Bobby Carpenter may have been a slight reach this high. Parcell's likes to build his defense around stopping the run, and is hoping Carpenter can start.

19) San Diego - B:  CB Antonio Cromartie, nice combination of size and speed; a player who fills a need for the vulnerable Charger  secondary.

20) Kansas City - C: The Chiefs are desperate for D-line help, but they reached a bit for DE Tamba Hali this high.

21) New England - B: RB Laurence Maroney - This pick may have been as much filling a need in acquiring a back-up for the aging Dillon, as leaving the cupboard bare for arch-rival Indianapolis - nice move.

22) San Francisco - C: DE Manny Lawson - The Niners are said to plan to move Lawson to OLB; where he would have an extraordinary combination of size and speed. (otherwise he's a bit light for a DE.) Lawson is an athlete but it's a bit high to take a player with the intent of teaching him a new position.

23)Tampa Bay - B: G Davin Joseph - Tampa fills a need by acquiring the top rated guard in the draft. Joseph will help pave the way for Cadillac Williams.

24) Cincinnati - B+: CB Jonathan Joseph - The Bengals fill a need and get excellent value with Joseph slipping to this spot.

25) Pittsburgh - B: WR Santonio Holmes - The Steelers traded up to acquire the top rated wideout in the draft. Holmes fills a glaring need and should contribute right away. The cost was high, but Pittsburgh doesn't have a lot of holes.

26) Buffalo - DT John McCargo - Need meets value, at this slot McCargo himself is a low B rated pick. However, the Bills gave up a first day pick to move-up. That move combined with the lack of a trade down by the Bills earlier in the draft means Buffalo has foregone 2 day one draft picks for two ordinary players, something they could ill afford to do... I'm guessing Buffalo would like a "do'ver"....

27) Carolina - B+: RB DeAngelo Williams - Need meets nice value at this spot. Williams may have the best situation of the RBs chosen in the 1st round; the Panthers offense is dedicated to running the ball.

28) Jacksonville - B: TE Mercedes Lewis, a pass catching TE gives Leftwich another short range target.  Not a bad selection in this range.

29) NY Jets - B+: C Nick Mangold, New York bagged a blue chip LT, and the highest rated center in the draft; and both were need positions for the rebuilding Jets. Excellent value this low in the round, Mangold was on many teams wish list. 

30) Indianapolis - B-minus,  RB Joseph Addai. The Colts probably reached a little here to fill a specific need.  However, Addai is game ready, and he picks up the blitz well, a skill teams with a large investment in a franchise QB covet. It'll be interesting to see if his running vision measures up to the schemes the Colts run.

31) Seattle - B: CB Kelly Jennings will be a nice bookend to Trufant.

32) NY Giants - B+  DE Mathias Kiwanuka. NY moved down in a trade with Pittsburgh, where they nabbed an extra second rounder. Nice move by the Blue Men. They get nice value and fill a need at the bottom of the round.

Chicago -  This exercise is a grade of 1st round picks, but the Bears traded out of the 1st round to acquire additional picks, which given the similar talent available in the second and third round is an excellent strategy. (Editor's Update - after reading a very well written email from a reader making Chicago's case, I will concur with the writer and be consistent: The Bears made a nice trade, and ended up with a net value gain, and therefore earn a B+ for filling holes in the secondary - nice move)