NFL Superbowl pick - Week 21

Presented by Dale Sims

Both of the Conference games continued the streak of really outstanding football that has been going on in the post season.  The Chicago game was much closer than the score would indicate and the Indianapolis game was a classic.  History unfortunately suggests that the Super Bowl may not be that great of a game but any more the actual football played seems secondary to the events surrounding it.  Still the match up has some interesting potential.

I was 2 - 0 last weekend straight up but 0 - 2 against the spread as the winners both covered, which is the norm by the way, so for playoff games I am 8 – 2 straight up and 4 – 6 against the spread thus far.  There is only one game left to pick so against the spread I will be coming up a loser while the straight up record is going to be pretty decent, and we see, yet again, why I do not bet on football.

The Week That Was

Both games were a testament to home field advantage.  The weather was an issue in Chicago as New Orleans had early problems with holding onto the ball and with the footing there.  In Indianapolis the crowd noise was almost certainly a factor in the play calling for New England and also likely figured into a key penalty or two.

In the Chicago game Reggie Bush made a foolish and classless gesture (can we say "bush" league) when he chose to taunt Urlacher at the end of his eighty-eight yard touchdown reception in the third quarter.  Fortunate for him that the days of Butkus are past where he would have left the game later in the quarter for a trip to intensive care or possibly the morgue.  As it was the entire Bears defense came alive, playing with elevated intensity and the Saints were shut out from that point on.  Players should avoid things that give purpose to the opposition.

The Bears had a well conceived offensive game plan that started running Benson at the middle of the line and setting up the power running game.  This was a punishing attack in which the Saints defensive line was getting pushed off of the line.  For their first touchdown they went to Jones on eight consecutive runs that featured more traps springing him into the secondary for some significant yardage.

In Indianapolis the game started out looking like a Patriots rout as they quickly went up 21 - 3, a late field goal brought the halftime score to 20 - 6 and gave the Colts a bit of momentum.  The Colts immediately cashed in at the start of the third quarter with a fourteen play drive and followed it up with second touchdown drive and a two point conversion to tie the game after holding the Patriots to three and out.  The momentum had changed but momentum is fickle and it went back and forth throughout the half.

The coverage teams for the Colts are not good, and it showed up as they put the defense in bad positions at various times during the game.  This resulted in exchanges of touchdowns and field goals until the Colts took the lead for the first time with one minute left in the game.  The Colt’s coverage team and defense rose up to stop New England in the last minute of the game.

The Colts won this game by wearing out New England in the second half where they ran forty-six offensive plays to the Patriot's twenty-nine.  On the last Indianapolis drive, the New England defenders were just worn down to the extent that the Colts actually scored more quickly than they wanted.  Both the Colts coverage team and their defense rose up on the last Patriot series to seal the win.

The Super Bowl

The Super Bowl is Indianapolis against Chicago.  The actual game played has almost become an afterthought to the spectacle of the event and the hype is not going to get any less.  These teams have some striking similarities, which could be expected given the relationship, and coaching backgrounds involved.  The defensive scheme is basically identical although there are marked differences in the talent of the players implementing it.

The base defense for both teams is the Tampa cover-two, which is based on speed.  It is a static defense, in which the scheme will not alter much in terms of the basic line up.  What happens out of that has some scope for variation but the positional match ups are generally very predictable, neither team blitzes often.  The key to success in this scheme is gap discipline, sound tackling, and swarming to the ball.  The better quality defense clearly belongs to the Bears, particularly at linebacker but they also have an edge across the defensive line and a slight advantage in the defensive backfield.

The Bears were able to bring some pressure against the Saints with just their front four last week.  Doing this against the Colts will be more difficult but it is essential if they are to slow down the Indianapolis offense.  Bringing blitzes against Peyton Manning has proved to be ineffective as a general policy and while the Bears are expected to show blitz they need to be able to get pressure without it.

Offensively the teams play different styles.  The Colts offense is very flexible, they respond to what they see from the defense and will take what is given.  Recently teams have been defending them with some variation of deep zone and seven-man fronts, expect Chicago to do the same at least part of the time to try to take away the deep ball.  The goal of this is to make the Colts be patient and play underneath which they have been able to do with varying degrees of success.

The Colts offense can neutralize the Bears defense to some extent because of their no huddle style of play.  Their standard lineup can line up in any formation from two tight ends to four wide outs and this will put stress on the Bears defense.  This plays into the running game as well as the passing game as the Colts will run from spread formations.

The Bears are a more conventional offense; they have passed more this season than in the past but they are still a run first team.  They can, and will, take shots down the field, and that has worked well for them within the context of their normal game plan.  Still the team wants to establish a power running game particularly against the smaller Colts defensive linemen.  Against the Saints they ran Benson early, he is the better contact runner and more punishing than Jones, that might be their plan again.

Both offensive lines are quite good though in different ways.  The Bears tend to drive block particularly between the tackles and push opponents off the ball; they are somewhat less effective when pulling and trapping.  They can have trouble with speed rushers on the edge; Jason Taylor was particularly a problem when they played Miami so they ought to be planning for Freeney.  The Colts on the other hand are a very good pass blocking line and are at their best zone blocking for the stretch play, they are not particularly good drive blocking for short yardage.

The kicking games of the two teams are about even with a very slight edge to the Colts but the coverage and return teams are clearly an advantage for the Bears.  They have Hester who is an explosive returner, they can expect a field position advantage as either the result of good returns or because the Colts will try to kick away from him.  Less talked about is the advantage the Bears have in kick coverage, the Colts coverage team is simply bad.  They usually stay in their lanes but often get too deep; if this happens against Chicago it could result in a touchdown.

Straight up the Colts should out score the Bears offensively.  The Bears defense is quite good but the Colts have already faced two defenses in consecutive weeks that were as good or better.  The x-factor for the Bears is that they can score without their offense, and their defense and special teams can setup the offense for short drives.  The Bears are a streaky team and have the ability to take over a game both offensively and defensively.

Of course, the Bears can be a streaky bad team on offense.  They have had games where they have simply collapsed.  This is not a team where the design of the offense will enable them to come from behind.  If they find themselves in that position, they are very unlikely to recover.  The Colts can mount a comeback if called upon and that gives them a certain edge.

The Bears created more turnovers than any other team in the NFL this season, with forty-four takeaways while the Colts only managed twenty-six.  That seems like a huge advantage but the net difference for the two teams was Chicago was plus eight and Indianapolis was plus seven on the team.  The Bears can create turnovers but the Colts are not a team that gives many away.  The will need to win the turnover and/or the field position battle to win this game.

An advantage for the Colts is their maturity. They have played both in the playoffs and in the season itself a much more challenging schedule.  The Bears defense is very good and was the number three scoring defense but Baltimore and New England were the number one and two scoring defenses.  As good as the Bears are they are not going to stop the Colts offense though they should be able to slow it down.

Unless the Bears can score on special teams or either directly or indirectly through their defense, they will have to rely on their offense.  The Colts defense through the playoffs has played well enough to prevent that from happening.  The Bears need to step up and play a complete game, certainly possible but more things will have to go right for the Bears to win than for the Colts it would appear.  If this game were played ten times my expectation would be that the Colts would win six or seven of the games.  The time seems to have arrived for Dungy and Manning to take the next step, Colts win 27 – 24.

Observations

The football in the postseason has produced some very good football games and it would be nice to have a Super Bowl game that ends up being equally memorable.  The Super Bowl though seems to be about everything but football and to some extent that will affect the game; the bye week and the hype seem to have more of an impact every year.  The winner might just turn out to be the less distracted team this weekend.

Email Dale at: dale "@" footballforecasters.com