NFL divisional playoff picks - Week 20

Presented by Dale Sims

Conference Championships

A very interesting set of games last weekend, all of the games were competitive throughout and were in doubt until the last minutes and indeed the last seconds. They were not technically flawless by any means but this was certainly the best weekend of playoff football that I ever recall seeing.  This week we still have two dome teams in play, one at home and one on the road in the Windy City.  Both games shape up with the same kind of potential that last weeks games had so expectations are high.

I was 3 – 1 for the weekend straight up and 2 – 2 against the spread just like the week before; so for the playoff games I am 6 – 2 and 4 – 4 thus far.  So we look to this week and I thought last weeks games were hard to call.  This is a difficult week to assess, there is a lot going on that does not show up in team reports and the games rate to be very close based on the match ups.  Games like these are decided by turnovers and making plays at critical points and these games will be decided on the field, as they should be.

The Week That Was

A confession is in order here; I am a fan of ugly football.  Ugly football does not mean badly played rather it occurs when defensive teams can disrupt opposing offenses to the point where there is no rhythm.  This breaks the games down into its component parts. The AFC games last weekend were similar in that the defensive intensity of both games made the offensive play appear inconsistent.

The defense of Baltimore was, for the most part, outstanding.  The played a two-deep zone that forced Manning to play underneath for almost the entire game and used their athleticism to clog the passing lanes.  This was a thoughtful defensive plan that covered the one weakness that the Ravens knew the Colts would be looking to exploit, going over the top.  Manning was never really able to do much against this formation throughout the game but when the field position was bad, he managed to direct drives to bring the Colts out of the shadow of their own goal line.  This enabled the Colts to win the time of the time of possession battle; critical in keeping their defense rested.

The relentless and active Charger defense kept the Patriots off balance for most of the game.  It was an athletic effort on their part though not very intelligent.  The Charger defense lost the game on turnovers but arguably the most serious was by the defense when McCree fumbled an interception back to the Patriots when up by eight.  They could have survived the turnovers though with just a bit more maturity and still likely won had not Florence committed a stupid unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for a head-butt.

The NFC games were less defensively focused but still had interesting ebbs and flows which resulted in highly entertaining games.  These games were studies in errors also and in both games the losing side had had better execution but just did not have quite enough to bring off the upset.  Both of the winning teams need to spend this week taking a long hard look at their respective defenses.

The Chicago defense was pummeled by Alexander for most of the day, he ran effectively between the tackles, though their speed stopped most efforts to the outside.  The Bears were also unable to bring pressure against Hasselbeck without blitzing linebackers which hurt their ability to defend both the pass and the run.  The good news for the Bears was that Rex Grossman played well for the most part.

New Orleans ran all over Philadelphia, mostly with McAllister but mixing in Reggie Bush to keep the Eagles back on their heels.  The Saints defense managed to pull enough stops to win this game but they were victimized by a couple of big plays that allowed the Eagles to stay within striking distance.  The Saints back seven just were not athletic enough to stay with the Eagles skill position players.

The AFC

New England at Indianapolis – The Colts defense has shown itself in consecutive weeks in the playoffs to cover for an under-producing Indianapolis offense. They have certainly been helped by the return of Bob Sanders but his presence hardly explains this turn around. They have played these games with much greater focus; the difference in their gap discipline has been night and day.  One structural change to note is that they seem to have their defensive end pinching in as opposed to the extra wide splits and outside rushes that characterized this defense earlier in the season.

Perhaps the biggest difference is that their tackling has become better, they are wrapping up and swarming to the ball. This is an important part of the Tampa cover-two scheme. It is designed to force the opposing offenses to have to have long drives by keeping everything underneath the safeties. The design expects the defense to take advantage of mistakes by the offense to get stops and turnovers. During the playoffs, this has worked exactly as it was drawn up on the chalkboard. 

So what is wrong with Peyton Manning in the playoffs? He has been putting the ball at risk and paying for it but his play has not been quite as bad as his statistics might lead you to believe.  In the game last weekend he actually played well in the most critical situations, even his mistakes were not at costly points in the game.  Indeed his interception at the beginning of the fourth quarter turned out to be a forty-eight yard punt with no return, better than Hunter Smith was likely to have done if the pass had just been incomplete.

The Patriots had a win at San Diego that they seemed to have managed to manufacture out of thin air.  This is a good team but they are also a team that seems to be convinced that their destiny is to win in the playoffs.  San Diego was unable to close the door on the Patriots and they made mistakes that eventually cost them the game.  This was a win created by the experience and tenacity of the Patriots but it is what they have come to expect from themselves, a self-fulfilling prophecy as it were.

Still football games are lost more often than they are won and the Patriots took advantage of what they were given to continue to the AFC championship game.  They have an established defense and a complete package of offensive weapons under the direction of one of the best big game quarterbacks this side of Montana.  This team does not give many games away; to beat the Patriots an opponent has to earn it.

These teams met in New England in week nine with the Colts winning by a touchdown.  In that game, Brady threw four interceptions in a game that was otherwise fairly even.  At that point, Brady’s continuity with his receivers was still a work in progress but that is no longer the case.  The strength of the team this season is still their defense but the offense has been catching up and this will be a more complete team than the Colts faced earlier

The Colts defense is playing much better in the playoffs than they were at any time in the regular season.  The offense may appear to have fallen off but some of that is a function of the types of defenses they have faced.  This game is at Indianapolis where the Colts are undefeated this season.  The Patriots will not be very concerned about that streak as they are eight and one on the road and they have a long established history of winning in domes.  While the Colts have won their last couple of meetings with the Patriots they still have a history of playoff loses to overcome.

The Colts defense will again need to assert itself as they have in their previous playoff efforts but the offensive weapons they face are going to be much different this week.  Peyton Manning will need to bring his best game out and he can count on seeing something different than he has in the past few Patriot-Colt games.  That said Tom Brady will need to step it up and the question of the availability of Rodney Harrison to that defense is a question, the Patriots are not nearly as good without him.  At this point, it looks like an offensive-oriented game; the slight edge goes to the home team, Colts win 30 – 28.

The NFC

New Orleans at Chicago – The fairy tale that is the season of the Saints continues at least one more round.  They beat Philadelphia offensively with a well-balanced attack and ball control in a game where they had over a ten-minute advantage in the time of possession. Despite this, the game was close because of the big plays given up by the Saint defense.

Drew Brees is playing better, from a practical standpoint, than any other quarterback left in the playoffs.  The game plans that the Saints have implemented have been largely effective under his guidance and currently there may not be a better set of young talent at the skill positions anywhere in the NFC.  This team has come on very quickly during the season; their progress has been steady and a lot of the credit for that belongs to their quarterback.

The highly touted Chicago defense started slowly but did manage to make some crucial plays late in the game.  Rex Grossman played a generally solid game but the concerns about his tendencies to tank are only as far away as this week’s game.  His fumble, which led to a touchdown, will keep the questions around a bit longer but his completion to Davis in the overtime to setup the winning field goal served to answer some of his most vocal critics.

The Saints were able to run against the Eagles as expected and as a result were able to bring their full range of weapons in play offensively.  The Saints defense, despite having some problems keeping up with the speed of the Eagles, did have some important defensive stands during this game.  The defense may find themselves having to do the same thing this week.

The Saints offense is speed based which gave them a distinct advantage against the Eagles but the Bears match up better this week.  The field conditions in Chicago last weekend were problematic for both teams early, as the center of the field had been resodded; this creates a condition where the field has different traction characteristics in different parts of the field a potential issue for the wide outs, weather conditions could complicate matters.

This game is difficult to call; as things stand from last weeks game the edge would appear to belong to New Orleans.  This is largely the result of the quarterback play of Brees compared to Grossman and the late season decline of the Bears defense.  There are a lot of questions for the Bears to answer here but based on last weeks offensive performance, the home field advantage, and the potential for poor weather conditions at this time of year, Bears win 21 – 20.

Observations

This weekend could be as good as last weekend.  If these match ups were played ten times these teams might conceivably both split five and five.  Both games match dome teams playing against non-dome teams so there is a chance to see two dome teams in the Super Bowl. I would have called these games the other way and just as closely if the venues were reversed in each game.

While the home teams have an advantage the pressure is certainly more on the Bears and the Colts than their opponents.  Both Chicago and Indianapolis and their respective fans expected to be playing for this opportunity.  Despite huge question marks for each team they have made it to this point and not winning this week would be a disappointment and the season seen as a loss.

Email Dale at: dale "@" footballforecasters.com