NFL divisional playoff picks - Week 19

Presented by Dale Sims

An Unobstructed View/Divisional Playoffs

The playoffs continue and wild care games are in the books.  The home teams all won their games this past weekend though both Seattle and Philadelphia won by virtue of last second field goals, or lack there of.  I was 3 - 1 straight up and 2 - 2 against the spread for the wild card weekend we can only wait and see what this week brings.

This week’s games in the AFC will feature perennial favorites in the role of underdogs playing teams that they did not meet during the regular season.  These teams have seemed to be destined for the playoffs since mid season and before.  In the NFC, the games feature teams that played earlier in the season in the same venues; each time the home team won.

The AFC

Indianapolis at Baltimore - The Colts have a defense, who knew?  Actually, their game last weekend looked very much like their defense from last season.  If the presence of Bob Sanders makes that much of a difference, they need to be paying him more.  (Though the play of the safeties in the Tampa cover-two scheme is critical; note the difference for the Bears without safety Mike Brown, who has been on IR since midseason, to see a corresponding situation.)

The worrisome issue for the Colts had to be the play of Peyton Manning.  Three interceptions are a bad sign of him trying to force the play too much; this has been a historical problem for him in big games.  He is at his best when he stays within the flow of the game, in the past few seasons he has been much better at that and this regression should be a concern.  If he has three turnovers against the Ravens, the Colts will be blown out.

The Ravens had a bye and will be well rested and reasonably healthy coming into the playoffs (Ogden is expected to return).  This is the best defensive team in the NFL at this point in the season but this is not a particularly good match up for them.  The Ravens have given up a number of plays over the top of their defense and the Colts are a team that can take advantage of that.  The issue for the Ravens is not lack of talent; the defense is very athletic and very active, shifting to confuse the offense.  They are occasionally caught out of position as a result; not a good thing against Peyton Manning.

The Ravens offense has been solid at least for the second half of the season, if somewhat unspectacular; but that has been all the Ravens require.  The acquisition of McNair has stabilized the offense, which is based on ball control, field position, and taking advantage of what their defense has been able to give them.  The aging offense line is banged up a bit but playing well though historically Ogden has had his hands full when facing Freeney in the past.

The Colts will need to bring their defense to this game; if they do, they certainly have a chance.  Their offense is capable of scoring against the Raven defense and they have the weapons to spread that defense out to establish a running game.  Still it would take a nearly perfect game and that seems unlikely, Ravens win 27 – 24.

New England against San Diego - This game is a match up of a young talented team and an experienced veteran group.  San Diego has an impressive set of weapons on both sides of the ball and they have the best record in the NFL for a reason.  The Patriots though have all of the playoff experience and their own set of weapons.  Their team is a combination of experienced players that have come together a bit after a somewhat poor start to the season, at least by Patriot standards.

Much has been made about the changes in the receiving corps but the development of that group was simply a matter of time and timing.  Somewhat more important has been the offensive line coming together, at the start of the season this group was not playing well at all but they have settled down considerably the second half of the season.  Brady is capable of bringing all the talent the offense has together.

San Diego has had very good play on both sides of the ball.  Tomlinson has had an amazing season and is as complete a running back as has been seen in the NFL in some time.  Their passing game has been up and down and Phillip Rivers has struggled a bit of late but Antonio Gates is pretty much an impossible match up for most defenses.  Though for all the talk of "Martyball" being dead, this still is not an offense that is going to take many chances.

Defensively the Chargers play an attacking style that produces turnovers and big defensive plays.  Their game planning relies on defense to give their offense field position, which they manage to do most of the time.  There are some concerns about the secondary but the play there has been better than expected.  They have an advantage here because while they are good about creating turnovers the offense has been good about not giving them up.

This should be a very good game to watch if somewhat bruising to play as the defenses should be the story here.  The Patriots have been very good about taking away an opponents primary weapon but it is not clear that they can stop Tomlinson entirely.  Still this should be a close game and based upon the Patriots playoff experience and the Chargers lack of the same, Patriots win 28 - 21.

The NFC

Philadelphia at New Orleans – The Eagles return to New Orleans where they lost a close game on a last second field goal as a much different team.  The Eagle team is playing much more consistently and with better focus than they were back in week six.  This game, at least on the surface, also looks to be a very closely contested affair.

Garcia continues to play efficiently in the west coast offense that makes the best use of his talents and abilities.  Westbrook is also playing at a high level and has played more as a direct running threat with Garcia than he was when McNabb was at the helm.  The emergence of the running game has forced defenses to play up, closer to the line of scrimmage, giving clear lines to work the short passing game that this offense features.

The Philadelphia defense has also taken a step up since week six and is doing an excellent job of creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks though they are still not great against the run.  The secondary had been playing much better but the loss of Lito Sheppard for this game is a significant problem given the receivers of the Saints even if Joe Horn were not available and at this point it seems likely he will be playing.

New Orleans has been a real rags to riches story.  This franchise always has had athletic talent but this has not translated to wins on the field.  Their offensive line was a huge question mark going into the season but has been solid throughout and their offense has been the most productive in the NFL.  Drew Brees has played as well as he ever did in San Diego and has more weapons (although not better weapons) in New Orleans than he did there.

The New Orleans defense was also a question going into the NFL season.  They have a talented defensive line but they are less well off with their back seven.  To their credit though the group is playing with great discipline and tackling well, making it fairly productive though lacking in playmakers.  This team is playing defense on the team concept.

There are reasons to expect Philadelphia to win here.  They have a certain amount of momentum going for them and are playing as well as anyone at this point.  The Saints though match up very well to the Eagles and they have the home field advantage; it will matter here.  Even at the professional level football is an emotional game, though sometimes the trick is not to get too wound up and, if the Saints can manage to avoid that, the Superdome is going to be a hard environment for the Eagles to win in, Saints win 27 - 17.

Seattle at Chicago – Seattle goes back to Chicago where they were pounded in week four losing by thirty-one points.  Of course the Seahawks were missing Shaun Alexander at that point and the roof more or less caved in on them as Rex Grossman was at his best at that point in the season.  This is likely to be a different sort of game for several reasons.

The Bears offense has certainly cooled down since their earlier meeting.  They have fairly average weapons and Rex Grossman is playing without the confidence that he began the season with.  As his play goes so goes the offense and he has been erratic as it is possible to be and still have a starting job in this league.  He may be on a very short leash this weekend.

The Bears defense has also cooled down for more obvious, injury-related reasons.  The loss of safety Mike Brown has been a major factor in the drop off of their run defense.  A ball hawk and the defensive leader of the secondary the impact of his absence can not be overstated.  The loss of tackle Tommy Harris weakened their pass rush, further weakening the run defense; without him the Bears do not get a sufficient pass rush from their front four and are required to blitz more often.

Seattle has had injury issues of their own which continue; though Hasselbeck and Alexander are playing they still are not in top form.  Their offensive line has been setback by multiple injuries, particularly in the middle, and they are getting thin at guard.  Darrell Jackson is questionable for this game with a turf toe injury that will likely impact him even if he gets on the field.

Their defense has been inconsistent all season but injuries in the defensive secondary have them dragging players in off the street just to have a warm body available.  This also has players playing out of position creating some confusion in the defensive scheme.  This defense had not been playing all that well before the injuries so they will have their work cut out for them.

The good news for Seattle is that they are playing Chicago and depending upon who Rex Grossman is completing passes to they have a chance even with the injuries.  The Bears defense will have everyone healthy for this game that is not on injured reserve, which means that their defense is still a formidable obstacle.  The Seahawks have a well-earned reputation for not playing well on the road and the Bears are the better team in terms of talent on the field, Bears win 24 - 17.

Observations

It is unusual for this round not to have a prohibitive favorite in at least one of the games but if there is one here it is well hidden.  The theme of the NFL this season "On any given Sunday (or Saturday)" looks to be in full swing for this weekend as you can make a decent case for any of the eight teams winning their respective match ups; frankly, all four home teams could realistically lose.  While the games should be interesting, as in close, likely one or more of these teams will implode and while Chicago or Seattle would be typically suspects about the only one that would surprise me if they tanked would be New England.

The bye week is a very mixed blessing for some teams, it gives the opportunity to heal up but it can damage a team's ability to play at tempo.  This is usually most seen on offenses, Indianapolis tends to be a poor team off a bye week, it takes about a half for them to get back into synch, perhaps they were fortunate not to get a bye this year.  The teams most likely to be affected by this in this round would seem to be New Orleans and San Diego so it may be worth looking at the first few offensive series for these teams to see how that plays out.

Email Dale at: dale "@" footballforecasters.com