NFL Office Pool Picks - Week 18

Presented by Dale Sims

An Unobstructed View - NFL Wild Card Playoff Picks

For those of you who follow my weekly pick ‘em column I am combining things here and giving a bit more analysis with my predictions.  The final week of the season came in at 11 – 5 which means I finish the season at 155 – 101 a bit over sixty percent for the season somewhat disappointing but it has been a tough season to call.

Against the spread I also managed to go 11 – 5; which brings the total for the season to 131 – 118 – 6; here anything over even is a victory of sorts and fifty-two and a half percent is fine by me. I will be looking at the playoffs and my view in a bit more depth but I will also give you my playoff picks.  As always, these are my picks without consulting anyone here at football forecasters and are for amusement value only.  I do not bet football and if you have followed my picks, you know why.

Well the playoffs are here and the wild card round starts next week. Generally, the wild card games are among the most interesting of the playoffs and are usually good for an upset or two. Given all of the unknowns going into the final week of the regular season, teams will have minimal preparation times for their wild card games.  The preparation for two of the wild card games, where the teams did not play this season it may be significant however; the other two games will be divisional contests where the teams will be playing each other for the third time this season.

The NFC

Dallas at Seattle – This game features two teams that have not played each other this season and are simply not playing well.  Both teams are coming into the playoffs with a record of one and three during the last quarter of the season. The Cowboys are coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions at home, truly a harbinger of potential disaster for any team; still, by the process of elimination, one of these teams must win a playoff game this season.

Neither team is playing anything like consistent football at this point in the season. The Cowboys had a streak going in the middle of the year where the offense came together and reeled off four solid wins with Romo at the helm. Their recent problems are not restricted to the offense though; both the offense and defense have been struggling. The defense is vulnerable to the pass when they are spread out and they have not been able to get consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Seattle has been up and down all season and their potent rushing offense last season has disappeared entirely.  Injuries have certainly been an issue for the Seahawks but the team has been chronically inconsistent. The offense has fallen from second best in the NFL last season to the middle of the pack this season.  Their defense has been equally as mediocre as the offense and they are minus eight for turnovers for the season the worst of any team to make the playoffs.

If these two teams play to form the game will be won by whichever one does not lose it.  The Seahawk defense will find that they have real problems with the Cowboy receivers and the vertical passing game; this will only be made worse with the loss of Kelly Herndon.  The Dallas defense will also have issues in the passing game when Seattle puts four wide receivers out so the game will be a question of turnovers or perhaps come down to who has the ball last; Dallas wins 28 – 27.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia – These divisional opponents are meeting for the third time this season having split the season series, both teams winning on the road. The Giants win came in overtime the second week of the season after the Eagles squandered a seventeen-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Eagles win also involved a fourth quarter comeback in week fifteen so both games were competitive.

Still the match up is not good for the Giants.  Philadelphia has the kind of pass rush that the Giants find difficult to defend and the loss of left tackle Luke Petitgout makes that situation somewhat worse. The Eagles can collapse the pocket in the middle and Eli Manning becomes much less accurate and much more tentative as a quarterback when he cannot step up into his throws. The Giants should be able to run on the Eagles though so their key will be ball control with their running game.

The Giants defense has also lost defensive end Michael Strahan, the diminished pass rush exposes a secondary that is average at best.  Fortunately, at least with Garcia at quarterback, the Eagles do not have a particularly strong vertical passing game but he is capable of picking them apart with the short passing game.  The Giants defense will have to step up, take control of the line of scrimmage, and Westbrook.

The Giants best chance will be to get an early lead and play ball control. They have been tremendously inconsistent though which does not portend well for this game.  The Eagles are probably the hottest team in either conference going into the playoffs and their confidence level is high despite playing without their franchise quarterback.  Games between divisional foes in the playoffs generally are close, the teams know each other well, there are no surprises; Eagles win 24 – 17.

The AFC

Kansas City at Indianapolis – The Kansas City Chiefs backed into the playoffs literally making it by virtue of a four-team parlay that included Cincinnati’s mismanagement the clock and timeouts in the last seconds of their game against Pittsburgh.  This would be the luckiest team to make the playoffs in recent seasons.  Their luck is still in at this point as they bring the second most prolific rusher in the NFL this season to face the worse rushing defense in the NFL.

Kansas City also comes in without the pressure of expectations; it has seemed unlikely that they would make the playoffs for most of the season given their injuries and inconsistencies.  On the other hand, the Colts on the other hand started the season as the choice of many to win the Super Bowl; their defensive collapse looks likely to doom them in the playoffs.  The pressure here is all on the Colts.

Lest you think that the Colts are underdogs here, they are not. Last time we checked Peyton Manning still plays quarterback for them, which essentially means they are dangerous in any game.  Their defense though means that their opponent will always have a chance, particularly this type of opponent who can wear down that undersized defense.  Still it behooves the Colts to get out in front early and to win, or at least not lose, the turnover battle.

In a game where both teams play to their potential, the Colts will not be able to stop the running game of the Chiefs and the Chiefs will not be able to stop the offense of the Colts.  In this scenario, the game will be an up and down the field march where the Chiefs will want to use their offense to keep Peyton on the sidelines and the Colts will want to force the Chiefs to play from behind.  The Colts are undefeated at home, the final edge here, Colts win 28 – 24.

N.Y. Jets at New England – This is the other divisional rematch being played over the wild card weekend.  These teams also split during the regular season with each team winning on the road; immediately after the week ten loss the Patriots put in a new playing surface, going from grass (sand actually) to a composite surface.  To make the teams even better known to each other Eric Mangini was a defensive coach in New England for the previous six years.

New England has had a number of issues this year that has lead them to be overlooked as a likely Super Bowl team.  Injuries to their defense, which seem to be an annual occurrence, a reworked receiving corps, and inconsistent play at times from their offensive line, have been persistent issues.  Still Tom Brady is still the quarterback here and this is currently the most experienced and successful playoff team in the NFL.

The Jets have been another matter entirely.  This is a team that virtually no one thought would have a winning season and their story has been remarkable.  The talent of this team is pretty much a work in progress; their offensive line relies on rookies in key positions and they are limited at the skill positions with an oft-injured quarterback and Curtis Martin out for the year and likely to be forced to retire.  Their defense has been reasonable despite having personnel who are not ideally suited for that scheme.

New England has all of the advantages here and it seems improbable that the overachieving Jets will be able to repeat their victory.  The best chance the Jets will have is if they can get an early score and build on that with perhaps a turnover or two.  This seems to be improbable and the talent and experience of New England rate to be too much to overcome, Patriots win 24 – 14.

Observations

This should be an interesting batch of games.  If you like a lot of offense the games Saturday should be to your liking as there should be many points put up in both games.  The defenses will show up to some extent on Sunday but the best defenses are mostly enjoying bye weeks.  Defense does win championships and it makes it unlikely that any of the teams playing this weekend will be playing in Miami.  Still if you want to look for dark horses here, there are a few of possibilities.

If you want to duck the trend with an offensive team, the Colts leap out immediately.  They would probably be a favorite if they had an even average defense but they do not ranking in the bottom third overall, the worst of any of the teams in the playoffs.  Still they have an outstanding offense and a third down conversion rate that is the best in the modern era.  When they are playing in a groove, the Colts seem that they can score every time they have the ball.  Peyton does press too much at times and their efficiency generally drops when that happens, it will be hard for that not to happen knowing their defensive issues.

The obvious team to consider though would be the Patriots.  They have the playoff experience and have a reasonable draw.  The question of how the team will do though may hinge on the health and injury status of several defensive players including Wolfork and particularly Rodney Harrison whose presence is important to the play of the secondary.  Of course, Bill Belichick will be typically evasive so answers are likely to come only when the Patriots take the field on Sunday.

The team that has at least some defensive prospects, and more significantly perhaps at this time of year momentum, would be the Eagles.  This team has really become more consistent since their franchise quarterback was placed on injured reserve.  The offense has been rushing better and they have had better defensive efforts as well.  It looks very much that because of the injury to McNabb everyone else has stepped up his game.  This is a very dangerous team and the most likely candidate to make it to the Super Bowl of the teams playing this weekend.  

Email Dale at: dale "@" footballforecasters.com