AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW 

NFL week 5

Presented by Dale Sims

It seems to be obligatory to write an article for each quarter of the season; far be it from me to be contrary.  There is a certain kind of symmetry involved; the games have four quarters, the season ought to also.  Of course with the bye weeks starting in week three not all quarters are created equal.

Well we know that there are only three undefeated teams (Baltimore, Chicago, and Indianapolis) left in the entire NFL each at 4 – 0.  The winning teams are not that surprising; Football Forecasters did pick each of these teams to win their respective divisions in our preseason analysis.  Each one has had one or more early narrow escapes so far this season; so there could have been no undefeated teams.  It doesn’t seem likely that any of these teams can go that much further into the season without taking a loss, but we will let Miami worry about that.

Just as a horror show for the network interests in the NFL imagine the excitement of a Baltimore versus Chicago Super Bowl.  Looking into the future, I can see it now, won on a last second fifty-yard field goal, final score 5 – 4, a pitcher’s duel all the way. (The under was 10.)  What a waste of good weather it would be to play a game between those two in Miami; if ever a game belonged in a snow storm it would be that one.

There are four winless teams also (Detroit, Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee).  This list might be a bit more surprising as Tampa Bay in particular was thought highly of.  Again to our credit we identified that their offensive line was a problem and it has proved to be insurmountable to date.  Two of these teams look to have already quit, possibly for the season.  Wins for Oakland and Tennessee are going to be hard to come by.  (The season under for wins by those two teams combined looks to be about four.)  I actually think that there is a chance to have a 0 – 16 team out of this group.

Preseason Concerns Revisited

Before the season, there were a number of concerns about quarterback injuries and the impact of these on the upcoming season.  On the plus side, Drew Brees has shown no ill effects from his shoulder surgery.  He is currently fourth in passing yardage in the NFL with a quarterback rating over ninety.  The amazing story has to be Chad Pennington who appears to be fully back from shoulder surgeries in consecutive years he is on a pace to throw for over four thousand yards, something he has never done before.

It turns out that Culpepper was not quite as far along as it appeared in preseason; and given the line play of Miami his situation could get worse in a hurry.  Rothlisberger is playing poorly, whether there are lingering health issues or it was just lack of practice time at critical points are unclear, but his play has clearly suffered to this point.  Surgery is a debilitating experience; add being hit by very large men with bad intent and things do not get better.

The question of the health of Carson Palmer may not be as settled as it appears.  While he appears to be back from his injury there are some indications otherwise.  He is taking sacks too frequently as a result of being slower getting the ball out; his passes do not seem as crisp as they have been and his accuracy is a bit off.  This can be attributed to limited practice time to some extent but it may also be residual effects of his injury, being slower and not stepping through his throws.

At the start of the season, there was speculation about the coaching futures of Jeff Fisher and Marty Schottenheimer.  Both were seen as being at odds with their respective front offices so far it seems Fisher is clearly in trouble.  Marty on the other hand, despite a team performing well, is catching a lot of flack for the Baltimore loss despite the fact that Baltimore is not a defense you want to freelance against.

Some other coaches have to be looking over their shoulders.  First is Dennis Green, Charles Bidwell opens a new stadium and his wallet to land Edge and it is just more of the same in the desert.  Green may be on a short leash, starting Leinart may buy him another year but Arizona needs a lot of help on the offensive line before they will ever be successful.

Jon Gruden looks like he may have problems also; the Bucs are playing badly and the situation is getting worse.  The offensive line is terrible, it had problems to begin with an injuries have compounded the problem, the defense is beginning to look its age, and there are some quarterback issues beyond injury.  Add to that some disaffection in the fan base and you have the formula for an early exit. 

Another coach getting early mention is Tom Coughlin, the Giants are under performing but the questions arising team discipline and unity are more of an issue.  The defense has been unexpectedly poor and in what should be their greatest defensive strength; they rank dead last in sacks/game this season from tied for eighth last season and after adding Arrington.  Add to all of this their penchant for turnovers, penalties, and the patience level of the New York fans and the only thing that will succeed is a playoff win or he will likely be job hunting at the end of the season.

The Good

There have been some real over-achieving teams starting with the Jets.  They are two and two and have been in every game at the end losing only to much more talented teams, the Patriots and the Colts.  They are playing with attitude and intensity, first quarter coach of the year nominee Eric Mangini.  This was a team many expected, including myself, to be one of the worst in the AFC.

The Saints are also overachieving though they have always had talent they are now playing better than their talent level instead of worse.  Changing coaches seldom produces such immediate results this one looks like it is working out though.  Sean Payton has done a nice job getting everything together here and putting his playmakers on the field in ways that maximize the team’s options.

The Chicago Bears have an offense.  Not just any offense, after all they have had players like Sayers and Payton in their history, this is a passing offense.  Rex Grossman has been staying healthy and the receivers are catching everything that even gets close to them most of the time.  If this turns out to be real, they look to be the team to beat in the NFC and perhaps the NFL.

One of the most surprising statistics in the first four games of the season would be that Peyton Manning has two rushing touchdowns so far this season in consecutive games.  He also actually spiked the ball in the end zone.  More spectacular though is that the Colts are converting over 62% of their third down plays; an amazing number, next best is about 45% and historically few teams have ever been over 50% in the modern era.  They will have to continue to be at least that efficient to compensate for their horrid run defense.

The Bad

The Detroit Lions are a team that looks better on paper than it does on the field.  They still have problems getting consistent effort on the field from these players and the enthusiasm with which the season began seems to be waning.  Expect more wholesale roster changes at the end of this season if things do not start come around soon for this group.

Arizona has amazing talent but they forgot to develop a foundation.  This team has some of the most talented skill players in the league but is playing behind a mediocre line that keeps getting changed around.  At some point they are just going to have to settle on a specific lineup and give them a chance to gel as a unit.  Leinart is unlikely to be the answer because the Cardinals are not asking the right questions.

Miami has suffered from the breakdown of its offensive line as much as anything.  Culpepper has not performed to expectations but injury and the uncertainty playing behind that line accounts for some of the issues here.  Still you have to wonder how much his confidence has been hurt over the past year and how that will affect his future play.

Tampa Bay has problems everywhere but injuries play a huge part in this.  The offensive line started the season with questions and the answers (both guards) have spent most of their time on the injury report, now they have lost their right tackle and quarterback in addition.  This is going to be a long year in Florida.

Just Ugly

Oakland did not figure to be very good this season.  They got a very late start on selecting a coach which put them behind virtually everywhere else, choosing assistants, preparation for the draft and developing a modern playbook that actually was based on the players currently on the roster.  It seemed last week, even with a lead, the Raiders simply quit.  This team risks becoming a bad joke; their performance over the past few years has dissolved into chaos.

Tennessee had some hope the beginning of a turnaround from cap hell.  They made some good off season free agent moves that looked to start them the right direction but things quickly went downhill.  The handling of McNair was poorly done; there was no way to honor his contract, of course it was never meant to be honored, everyone understood that.  Still the man was in many ways the Titans team and how they choose to part ways with him certainly had locker room implications.

In the draft the Titans took Vince Young, rather than Leinart as expected.  This was apparently the call of the owner and it started to appear that there were problems in Tennessee.  This pick up only made the departure of McNair stranger in that he was considered the perfect mentor for Vince Young.  Then there was the parting of ways with Volek, and Jeff Fisher’s rather uncharacteristic sniping at the player after his departure.

Finally this past week there was the Haynesworth blow up.  The act itself is commented on later but the thing to be pointed out here is that this kind of frustration seems to permeate the team and the locker room.  This is a team that is not playing together and also is at risk of quitting early.

Observations

What happened in the Tennessee Dallas game between Hanesworth and Dallas center Andre Gurode was not football related.  This was a criminal act of battery and should be treated as such.  The NFL has sanctioned Haynesworth which is well and good; and to his credit he does seems genuinely contrite.  Still by the nature of the act this is a matter for the courts.

I am not necessarily advocating sending him to prison, that would be a matter for adjudication though.  At the other end of the spectrum a fine, community service, and some kind of court ordered psychiatric intervention certainly seems appropriate as a minimum.  Football is a violent game within its framework but this kind of violence is not contemplated, not only is it not acceptable within the game it is not acceptable within the society.  The community at large deserves protection from Haynesworth and he needs some help in understanding that this type of behavior is out of bounds no matter where you are.

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com