NFL Picks - 2006 NFC North Report

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     Last Update: 08/29/06

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NFC North Picks & Preview

By Dale Sims


The NFC North

 

This maybe the weakest division in the NFL; three of the teams are breaking in new leadership and one is also under new ownership.  Not only are these teams (with the exception of the Bears) making major scheme changes they have some lingering personnel issues.  The schedules in general though are actually very favorable but we still only see one team coming out of the division with a winning record.  The NFC North gets to play the NFC West and the AFC East neither of which are exactly powerhouses.

 

Chicago                     12-4 (+)

Minnesota                  8-8

Green Bay                  5-11

Detroit                        4-12

 

Chicago

 

The Bears return all twenty-two starters from last years 11-5 team, great news for the defense, less inspiring regarding their miserable 2005 offense.  The return of injured starters should help; given that they are likely to improve on offense, they would almost have to.  The defense is the best in the NFL until proven otherwise and may actually be better than it was last season.  With that defense and any kind of minimally effective ball control offense this team should do well particularly with their schedule.  They play nine games against teams that have new head coaches which must be some kind of record.

 

Minnesota

 

This is a very different team from where it was a year ago.  The offensive line could be a huge positive this season, certainly the talent is there; the skill positions are a bit thin, what they lack in quality they seem to be trying to make up with quantity.  Still Brad Johnson showed himself to be a capable leader last season as Minnesota feasted on weaker teams and they have a schedule that looks similar.  They have announced they are going to be running a Tampa, cover two scheme on defense but the current personnel don't seem right for that move.  This team could be a real surprise but the level of changes being made here argue that it could go either direction.

  

Green Bay

 

Brett came back, and despite the new coach, the offense will stay very similar for all the good it is likely to do.  Age and injuries to the running backs along with the defection of Javon Walker limit the offensive weapons and the center of that line didn't get any better.  The lack of protection and the apparent lack of any kind of a running game will create pressure, Farve will feel the need to push, and the turnovers will come.  Offensive production will be limited.  The Packers best hope lies with their defense; this was actually a statistically good defense last year that added talent.  If it can come together as a group quickly, the defense may able to keep Green Bay in a few games they should not be in.  If Farve can still pull off some magic, they could steal a couple of wins but the Packers have an uphill battle to get to even.

 

Detroit

 

Detroit is blessed with a relatively easy schedule but it isn't likely to be nearly enough.  Getting Rod Marinelli, a disciplinarian as coach is a step in the right direction as discipline has been lacking there for years.  Some players likely will flourish but others are going to be resistant to say the least.    Remember this is the team whose players complained to the union about being required to do too much during the off-season Organized Team Activities (OTA).  The changes in both offense and defense that are being put in require great discipline and it is very hard to see that happening for the Lions, expect another very frustrating season for this dysfunctional team until the roster improves.  The Martz offense can be formidable but it requires a great deal of precision, intelligence, and talent to operate it successfully.  The fact that it requires an accomplished, accurate quarterback who can make consistently good decisions argues against either of the options seems to argue against the options available.  Remember this is the team whose players complained to the union about being required to do too much during the off-season Organized Team Activities (OTA).

 

SUMMARY

 

The NFC North looks weak at this point, other than Chicago any of the other three teams could potentially be looking at the number one pick in the 2007 at the end of the season.  The good news it that all of the teams appear to be taking steps to turn around their respective teams but the last thing you want to hear in August is wait until next year.

 

It is unlikely that a wild card could come out of this division but very possible that the NFC champion could.  The kind of schedule Chicago has could lead to home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs and Chicago in January can be a huge home field advantage.

 


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