2006 football reports

& NFL picks.

A+   Rated Plays  Subscription NFL Picks or College Football Pick's as close as we come to  having a  "lock"  - But it's wrong about 30% of the time! A+ Play "in" when "Bulletin Page"  is highlighted

A  Rated Plays:  College Football or NFL Picks that we feel very good about.

B  Rated Plays:  Free College or NFL Pick that we feel good about.

Home

NFL Team Reports

By Dale Sims and Kurt Schumacher

Our totals projections are heavily weighted to division contests.  Of course we cannot take into account injuries at the time of these forecasts.  Our division weighted win/loss projection for the NFC East differs greatly from Vegas' NFL futures totals projections: Vegas has Dallas handily winning the division, while we see Washington and Philadelphia as having equivalent (if not superior) talent, and more favorable fundamental match-up advantages across the schedule.

The NFC East

This is the toughest division in the NFL this season.  It is not just that any of these teams could win the division; any of these teams could conceivably go deep in the playoffs.  The problem for all of these teams is that not only do they get to beat up on each other they catch the NFC South, which is decent also, and the AFC South.  The schedules are all going to be challenging.  Anyone who can steal a division game on the road looks to be the favorite.

Washington                  10-6

Philadelphia                  10-6

Dallas                           9-7

New York Giants            8-8 (+)

Washington

The Redskins have no obvious weaknesses. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and a great running back. The defense (coached by Forrest Gregg) is very good; this stop unit could be among the top 5 in the league.  The weakest link for the Redskins would appear to be Mark Brunell, though he certainly plays well enough when healthy; staying that way has been a problem in recent years.  Their schedule is quite difficult though, and while all of the starters are very good on both sides of the ball, there is a greater fall off in the quality of the backups than on most NFL teams.  If they can stay healthy, this is a hard team to bet against.

A key for the Redskins will be the health of their offensive line, and whether they are able to stay together for the entire season. It is a very strong unit, and if they keep Brunell on his feet this team could go far.

Philadelphia

The Eagles are improved on the defensive line, which will help their overall pass defense, and being a year removed from the Owens soap Opera is a plus.  Their schedule starts with eight winnable games, which could get them confidence and momentum.  The issue of their running game is not the ratio of passes to runs because their short passing game is just essentially an extension of the running game.  The problem is that they cannot really play ball control to run out the clock, which they will need to be able to do on the road in this division. 

A key to success for Philadelphia will be their ability to convert on 3rd and short. We know they have an extraordinary short pass attack, but can they run the ball for 2 yards when they need to?

A key contest will be at home on October 8th against Dallas. Philadelphia will be off a short week - coming off a Monday night game against Green Bay. Terrell Owens knows the weakness' of this secondary, and he has a tremendous size advantage over Philly's small corners. Philly will be favored, but this should be a tremendous game to watch. Look for DC Jim Johnson to have some new blitz packages for Cowboys QB Drew Bledsoe.

Dallas

Everyone looks at the signing of Owens and either loves it or hates it, but the passing game was not a real problem last year.  The offensive line played poorly and the improvement there is yet to be seen; if Fabini and Adams are fully back from their injuries, the line should be adequate in most circumstances.  However, Bledsoe makes the job of protecting him harder because he holds the ball too long in a division where all of the defensive lines have some outstanding talent.  The defense was decent last season though somewhat inconsistent.  They should be better this year, perhaps even very good. Overall the offensive line has more questions than answers at this point and while there is potential there is also great risk.

A key game will be December 16th at Atlanta. Dallas has the size at receiver to exploit the Falcons secondary; and the Boyz are solid against the rush.  If the Cowboys can protect Bledsoe, they have the match-up advantageous to pull off a road upset in this spot.

New York Giants

The Giants start the season with a brutal three games before the bye week and a tough overall schedule, the team dynamics, which already seem somewhat fragile, may not handle a potential 1-2 start let alone a potential 0-3 start.  Eli Manning improved overall last year and will need to continue to do so, there is plenty of supporting talent here.  The offensive line is good but was inconsistent within games at times last season.  The defense has some questions to answer at the tackle spots and the off-season additions will need to step up to improve the secondary, but the pass rush could be the best in the league.

A key for New York will be how well their run defense holds it together through the first half of the season (against some of the leagues better offenses). In the first half  they face these premier running backs:

• Brian Westbrook

• Shaun Alexander

• Clinton Portis

• Warrick Dunn

• Julius Jones

• Cadillac Williams

If the New York run defense falters the Giants could be in for a long season. The addition of OLB Lavar Arrington may help, but the playmaking of the linebackers will have to improve for the Giants to improve on last seasons record.

SUMMARY

The NFC East is solid from top to bottom. This division has 3 legitimate playoff hopefuls. However, they could literally keep each other from gaining a first round bye come playoff time. We think it's going to come down to Washington and Philadelphia. The Redskins have playmakers at all the skill positions, and they have what looks to be the best defense in the division. Philadelphia has a gravy 1st half schedule, and they could gain a lot of momentum going into November. We're going to give a slight edge to Washington to win the division, they have all the fundamentals to make a serious run come playoff time, they certainly won't be an easy out for anybody.

NFL Picks

 Return to Football Forecasters Home Page