2006 football reports

& NFL division picks.

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NFL Team Reports

By Dale Sims and Kurt Schumacher

Our totals projections are heavily weighted to division contests.  Of course we cannot take into account injuries at the time of these forecasts.  

The AFC South

The AFC South has long been dominated by the Colts and for everyone who is tired of that all we can say it looks like it will be more of the same.  There may be some changes in the future but not this season with two of the teams in clear rebuilding mode and Jacksonville searching for offensive stability.  Still the teams are working toward parity within the division, and the overall talent at the bottom of the division has gone up considerably.  The schedules this year are not nearly as kind as they were last season as the NFC crossover puts them up against the NFC East, though they also get the AFC East, which should be more obliging.

Indianapolis       13-3

Jacksonville       9-7

Tennessee        5-11

Houston            2-14

Indianapolis

The Colts offense will survive the loss of Edge and still have an effective running game, because no defensive coordinator in his right mind will put eight men in the box consistently against Payton Manning.  The offensive line is stable and very effective and the running talent is sufficient to keep the rushing attack respectable.  The defensive defections in free agency might be more of a problem, particularly the linebacking corps which is thin.  The defensive philosophy of the Tampa cover two will hide many weaknesses.  However, beside Cincinnati, who is likely to out-score the Colts in a shootout?  Their schedule is favorable, and they again are a candidate to get home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. 

Vegas has the Colts down for 11-12 wins, we feel there is some value in taking the OVER at 12 or more total wins.

Jacksonville

The Jaguars had the advantage of an easy schedule last season; this year will be a bit more challenging.  The defense will be typically solid and perhaps even better than last season, depending upon improved play from linebackers not named Peterson.  The retirement of Smith leaves them without a number one receiver when they did not really have a solid number two. Leftwich is a decent quarterback but he really does not have the reliable tools that he needs.  If someone does not emerge from the pack of receivers, that will just allow teams to focus more on stopping the running game.  The running game is a problem too; with Taylor seemingly unable to stay healthy they have solid backups but the offensive line has been merely average. Look for the Jaguars to be a tough, but not dominant draw this year.

Tennessee

Tennessee is a team recovering from cap hell; and began the difficult rebuilding process last year. They will have an adequate offensive line if free agent acquisition Mawae is healthy; and the play of the secondary should be improved. Volek, who has done reasonably well in relief in the past, moves into the starting position but his downfield weapons are nothing special.  The defense has an above average pass rush but does not measure up well in other respects. Look for the Titans to rely heavily on their running game.  With what looks to be a difficult early schedule (they rate to be 1-5 at the bye) will they put Young on the field; considering the money invested in him can they keep him on the sidelines?  They would likely be well advised to let him learn for at least one season and continue adding talent next year, but that kind of patience is rare these days.

Houston

This has been an embarrassingly bad team in recent years and they are not going to turn it around in one season. They have some talent on the offense in the skill positions but while the offensive line may be incrementally better it will be a growth process, add that their schedule to start the season is difficult.  The new offense and blocking scheme will help somewhat but it will take some time to become established.  The team will be better defensively and probably will get better as the season progresses but to expect much from a new coach and an entirely different offense seems more than a bit unreasonable. Look for the Texans to be improved, but the net results will not be appreciably better than last year.

Summary

The Colts have an edge even without Edge and looks to dominate the division yet again.  The Jaguars are a team with all the supporting cast in place but they have nothing but questions at the skill positions.  Even if they could answer all of the questions they have on offense it seems unlikely they could best last seasons win totals, as there schedule is much more difficult.  They appear to be a marginal candidate for a playoff spot this season.  Tennessee is a team that has some talent and could do better than expected, much will depend on if and when the Vince Young era is ushered in.  Young is certainly a talented athlete and while he can undoubtedly make plays, he seems unprepared to be an NFL quarterback at this point.  While Houston is again left trailing the pack, as they add some supporting cast and learn the new schemes,  they should start to turn things around late in the season.

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