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NFL Team Reports

By Dale Sims and Kurt Schumacher

Our totals projections are heavily weighted to division contests.  Of course we cannot take into account injuries at the time of these forecasts.  

The AFC North

Perhaps this is the strongest division in the AFC; but then again maybe not.  This is a very talented group, the best teams Cincinnati and Pittsburgh fell back a bit and the bottom teams improved themselves as parity attempts to assert itself in the division.  The schedules certainly do not lend themselves to anyone running up easy victories along the way.  They draw the AFC West, clearly the second strongest division in the AFC and the difficult NFC South making this divisions overall schedules the most difficult in the NFL.

Baltimore     10-6

Pittsburgh    10-6

Cincinnati      9-7

Cleveland      4-12

Baltimore

There is reason for cautious optimism but several things have to come together in a hurry, they are in a tough division. The Ravens need for some older players to regain the form of their youth, particularly on the offensive line.  The offense should not be as one dimensional as in past years, which may help the line.  The arrival of Steve McNair could be just what the offense needs, or too little too late, that remains to be seen. The effectiveness of the offensive line will have much to do with that story too, as well as the return to form of RB Jamal Lewis. The defense should be in good form and will be better against the run than they have in the past few years (We expect this stop unit will return to a top 5 defense in the league).  They will return to their base 4-3 roots to allow Lewis free range to the ball, which should be reinvigorating for the defense.

Baltimore has been installed by Vegas as +350 to win the AFC North. Our division based win/loss forecast indicates the Ravens are clearly the best value pick to win the title in what shapes up to be a tight division race. Consider that the Ravens non-common division opponents are Buffalo and at Tennessee - both winnable games. They have a couple tough road games, at Tampa and Denver. But they also draw common division opponent New Orleans and KC on the road, it helps that they get KC late in the year (Herm Edward's teams typically don't do well down the stretch). They also draw San Diego, Carolina, and Atlanta all at home; it's reasonable they can go 2-1 in those contests (and possibly 3-0).

Pittsburgh

It is difficult to repeat after winning a Super Bowl and this schedule is no help at all.  The lack of a true power runner will require changes to the patented Steelers offense; this may be a season where their pass run ratio will be close to even or perhaps even slightly slanted toward the pass.   The free agency losses on offense were less significant than on defense, the playmakers are there but the people who allowed players like Porter and Polamalu to take risks are not.  As a result, the defense, though still very good, will either be less dynamic or more given to allowing big plays.  Overall, the leadership on this team is in the process of change, it will be interesting to see how that story develops over the season.

Pittsburgh's division non-common opponents are Miami and at Jacksonville (Monday Night). Both of these squads should give the Steelers a tough game, we have them down to split. They also draw common division opponents Atlanta, Carolina and San Diego all on the road. Four of the these teams shape up to have very good run defenses (the exception is Atlanta).

Vegas has instilled Pittsburgh as a modest favorite at -135 to win the division, by our numbers there clearly is no value in this line. And if the Steelers get off to a shaky start, the season could go downhill fast.

Cincinnati

The abiding question here is how Palmer’s knee is; even if knee allows him to play from the first game, it is still likely to affect the season.  The Bengals were most effective last season in the no huddle, his knee probably cannot take that kind of stress over the course of this season and their schedule is brutal.  They have a very good offensive line and could feature the run more to take pressure off Palmer.  On the defensive side of the ball, they were a very opportunistic team but they were not exceptionally effective overall.  They did take steps to improve their most glaring weakness, run defense. The total defense should be better overall.  The off field situation for the Bengals has been a distraction, this is a young team and these issues cannot be helping their focus on football.

Last years division champs draw New England, and at Indianapolis as their non-common division opponents - ouch. We have them down as a loss at Indy, and it will be a dogfight with the Patriots... that one could go either way (with or without Palmer). It helps that Indy gets San Diego at home, but they travel to Denver, Indy, Tampa, and KC - all tough road venues. And outside of KC, they all have solid defenses. It doesn't look good for Cincy to repeat as division champs.

Cleveland

A team headed the right direction but the how fast they will get there remains to be seen.  Questions exist at almost every offensive skill position about ability, health, or durability.  With a look toward the future, they improved their offensive line substantially adding Bentley and Shaffer.  They also return Edwards and Winslow to the receiving corps. The defense took some steps last year and should be better this year.  The additions of players like Washington and McGinest provide a legacy of leadership and an on-field coaching contingent.  They also seem to have changed the attitude in Cleveland, making the team automatically more competitive but this will be a tough division in which to succeed.

We peg Cleveland to be improved this year, but the end result will be similar to 2005. The Browns will be competitive, and they'll be a tough out, but they just don't have the pieces in place to make a serious run.

Summary

The AFC North looks formidable and could end up as a three-way dead heat.  Each of the front-runners has flaws and the answers that develop through the season will be interesting.  It is possible that three teams from this division could make the playoffs but that is very unlikely.  One of these teams is likely to have a breakdown - our best guessanalysis indicates that Cincinnati, given the strength of schedule, the injury to Palmer and the off-field distractions, will take a tumble; but actually, all of them are suspects.  We think that one of these teams may lose a game in Cleveland that will cost them the division and a trip to the playoffs, it will be very interesting to see who that is.  

Ten (or nine) wins could win this division - Baltimore at +350 is clearly a solid value pick to win the AFC North. We'd make this a B-rated selection. We think the division future is more attractive than the totals future (over 8.5 wins).

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