2006 football reports

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NFL Team Reports

By Dale Sims and Kurt Schumacher

Our totals projections are heavily weighted to division contests.  Of course we cannot take into account injuries at the time of these forecasts.  

The AFC East

How the mighty have fallen, this was not too long a go one of the consistently strongest divisions in the NFL.  It looks like a close call between New England and Miami as to who will win the division.  The other two teams are clearly in the process of rebuilding and have replaced coaching staffs.  There are new quarterbacks, or perhaps more like retreads, on the horizon for two or three of the teams.   The schedules in general though are actually very favorable and at least in part because of that we think two teams are headed to the playoffs from this division, the Patriots and Dolphins.  The AFC North gets to play the NFC North, which is very soft, and the AFC South, which is not exceptional.

New England          11-5

Miami                    11-5

Buffalo                   4-12

New York Jets        3-13

New England

The defections continue with both players and coaches moving on to other teams but the foundation endures; it does not hurt that they are playing in one of the weaker divisions in football and have a soft schedule.  The offense will look toward more of a balance this season, though they can still win shootouts, they really don't want to play in them.  The offensive line is undergoing some change and will not be dominating, but should be capable.  The running back situation should be much improved from last year but the receiver situation is unsettled to say the least, with major question marks regarding a potential hold-out by Deion Branch; and questions from newly acquired, WR Reche Caldwell, who hasn't shown in camp that he can get separation.  The defense is also of concern but has enough strength in key spots to deal with most of their schedule; but they will likely find themselves in a few shootouts again this year. (They will miss Vinatieri though in one or more close games this season.) Teams that can bring a strong power running game, such as Miami, Denver and perhaps Minnesota could have success running on the depleted Patriots front seven. They've lost key players, and key coaching personnel in two successive years, and it has to eventually catch up. Because of coach Belichick, and gritty veteran QB Tom Brady, we'll give New England a very slight edge (over Miami) to win the division tie-breaker formula. However, if Branch isn't on the field for the Pats on opening day, things could go downhill fast for New England... that could be just one too many key contributor lost to attrition.

Miami

This team over achieved last season but given their soft schedule this season no one should notice too much.  Culpepper fits this offense well but needs to be able to play effectively and given the nature of his injury this may not happen; even assuming he starts the season well there is a concern he will wear down as the season progresses.  The offensive line played surprisingly well last season and will need to do at least as well this year. The Dolphins brought in OL coach Hudson Houck last year, and he is widely regarded as one of the best line coaches in the business. Consider that Houck was the architect of the no name San Diego line, that opened holes for LT, and the future looks bright for the Dolphins running game (who have upgraded the  talent of the O-line this off-season).  Miami looks to implement a power running offense this season, and RB Ronnie Brown could have an explosive year.  The defense is getting older but barring injuries this should be a very solid group as usual and some weeks the offenses they face will make their task easy.  A key contest for Miami will be December 10 at home vs New England (and we think they will). If they take care of business at home, they could upset the Patriots for the division title.  Miami is the best value call here, at +175, to win the AFC East.

Buffalo

A new coach who isn't new to being a head coach helps a bit but everything else in Buffalo has questions attached.  The quarterback situation and the offensive line play have questions; this has been an ongoing issue and both need to get resolved. They will look to emphasize the run and work the passing game off that.  The defense has some talent but needs a pass rush; the team will be installing a cover two scheme that will take some getting use to.  They do not have a lot going for them; this could be a very ugly season as it wears on.

New York Jets

The Jets are a team in need of about everything.  They are preparing well for the future but that future does not start this season.  They will have a decent offensive line as the season develops but they lack playmakers at any position.  Curtis Martin is certainly a hall of fame running back but how much does he have left coming back from an injury on a team that will be offensively one dimensional.  The defense will be transitioning to a 3-4 scheme that they really do not have the personnel to run so this will be a long season.

Summary

More of the same only more so seems to be the theme here; the Patriots have been in the driver’s seat here for so long it seems.  There is a chance that the Patriots could stumble though they have certainly had what seems to be more than their share of injuries the past few seasons and if that trend continues they are thinner than ever.  There is very good chance that both New England and Miami could make the playoffs but who goes as the division winner looks to come down squarely to their face-to-face meetings. There certainly is better value making a play on Miami (at +175) vs. New England (at -200), to win the division. The New England UNDER 11 total peaks our interest as well, However, given that the Jets and Bills are rebuilding this year both the Pats and Fish should reach double digit victories.

Vegas has instilled Miami's win/loss projection at 9 to 9.5 wins. We think that with a healthy Culpepper and a soft schedule the Dolphins have the talent to post 10-11 wins. We rate the Miami OVER on the season win total (posted at 9.5 at Pinnacle Sports) a B rated pick.

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