2005 football reports

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NFL Team Reports

The NFC West division looks to be a dogfight between the Seahawks and the Rams.  However, we won't be surprised if Arizona pulls an upset or two along the way.  We don't see a dominant team within the division.  Our forecast model has San Francisco winning 4 games, but with a brutal slate before the bye week, we think there's a real possibility they'll come in under that number.

• Seattle - 10 wins

• St. Louis - 9 (+) wins

• Arizona - 8 wins

• San Francisco - 4 wins

Seattle

STRENGTHS

The Seattle Seahawks have a very strong offensive line that is equally adept at opening holes for super stud RB Shaun Alexander, as well as keeping the heat off QB  Matt Hasselbeck on passing downs. Although the secondary gave up some big plays last season, it was a young group and after a year of experience looks to be an improved unit this season.

• Our win/loss projection has Seattle winning 10 games this season.

WEAKNESS

The biggest weakness we see with Seattle is the WR group as a whole drops more passes than you'd like. QB Hasselbeck has good accuracy on his short to medium throws, but No. 1 WR Darrel Jackson drops more passes than any other No. 1 receiver in the NFL. In addition newly acquired 2nd WR Jerome Pathon would never be confused with belonging to the good hands club. 

• These guys get open underneath, but will stop a drive cold with their costly drops. It doesn't appear that their hearing footsteps (because I've reviewed game tapes and these drops happen in wide open situations). This is an especially bad attribute for receivers to have in Holmgren's  short pass ball control west coast offense.

The defense could also be susceptible against teams with solid rushing attacks. Free agent OLB Jamie Sharper looks to lock down the weak side, but the middle and strong side are big question marks. This is worrisome because Seattle faces a number of teams with better than average running games. 

SUMMARY

Seattle plays a middling tough schedule.  They need to take care of their division games at home, namely St. Louis, to win the division title.  Last year (at home) they dominated the Rams through 3 quarters, then all hell broke lose when Martz opened up the playbook and they really hurt Seattle with deep passes to their 3rd and 4th receiving options. Seattle draws Philly on the road, and Indianapolis at home, and don't match-up particularly well against either; so taking care of business within their own division will be essential to success. 

St. Louis

•  Our Win/Loss model has St. Louis winning 9 games, with a slight upwards potential.  Meaning it is more likely they'll win 10 games than eight.

OFFENSE

RB Steven Jackson is a strong power rushing threat, who seemed to pick up the nuances of blitz recognition, and looks to be a solid starting back.  St. Louis drafted 3 players on their offensive line, in addition to bringing in an above average  free agent, guard Rex Tucker. That's a lot of new faces on the O-line.  With bona-fide gunslinger QB Marc Bulger throwing the ball, if this unit jells quickly the Rams could have a very potent offense. HC Mike Martz is a master schemer, he excels at putting his players in position to take advantage of the oppositions weak points.

• QB Marc Bulger is the key to this offense, as goes Bulger so go the Rams.

DEFENSE

The defensive line looks solid, and the Rams took steps to improve the linebacking unit. If the starters at LB can stay on the field this could be an improved unit. If not, it could be a very long season for the run defense. The secondary looks to be a big question mark, and could be the undoing of the Rams playoff aspirations.  Starting corners, Butler and Fisher, are just OK in coverage - they both play soft underneath to protect against giving up the deep pass. The safeties are below average in coverage (but solid in run support).

SUMMARY

Fortunately for St. Louis the schedule only presents two teams who are ideally suited to take advantage of the Rams vulnerabilities - teams who can pass the ball underneath with good accuracy - at Indianapolis and at Minnesota.  We anticipate they'll also have trouble hosting Philadelphia. They open with two winnable road division games. If the Rams can take care of business at home, and pull off a road upset along the way, they could surprise and make the playoffs, but we don't see them going very deep in the post season (where they would run into more teams that can effectively match-up to the Rams multiple receiver sets).  It looks like Vegas has a sharp line on the Rams total.

Arizona

Arizona will sneak up on at least one team, and probably more this season.  Dennis Green is an excellent motivator and gets the most out of his troops, who generally show up to play every week. Green is the ideal coach for the low budget Cardinals.

STRENGTHS

Arizona's primary strength is they keep coming at you. There is no one single unit on either side of the ball that stands out as an area of strength for this team. But going back to Green's days with the Vikings, he knows how to coach.  He demands his players play disciplined field position, and puts them in the right position to make plays. FS Ifeanyi Ohalete is among the most underrated DB in the league.

• Arizona has one of the strongest defensive line units in the NFL, this units depth and discipline overcomes shortcomings on the rest of the defense.

WEAKNESS

Arizona excels at not giving up the big play. They make opponents work the length of the field.  The problem is that the Cardinals don't have the athletes to take advantage of miscues. The defense is good, but it's not dominating. Patient ball control offenses can move the ball downfield between the 20's. The offense is not consistent enough to sustain long game winning drives.  

SUMMARY

Arizona is an enigma. At this stage of Arizona's development, and at this stage of his career, QB Kurt Warner appears to be a perfect fit for the Cardinals. If Warner has confidence in his offensive line the Cardinals will surprise a few teams this season. The defense is strong and disciplined up the middle. Keep an eye on the October 30th match-up at Dallas. The Cardinals match-up well to the Cowboys, and Denny Green could go in as a large dog. Our basic unit-on-unit match-up analysis has the Cardinals winning 7 games.  However, due to the strong positive inclination, we have an upset or two penciled in and are calling on the disciplined Cardinals to win at least 8 times this season. It wouldn't surprise us to see positive team chemistry lift this team to 9 wins and into the playoffs.

San Francisco

The 49'ers are the anti-Cardinals. No will.

• Our 2005 win/loss projections model has San Francisco winning 4 times.

STRENGTHS

Damn - we don't see any. RB Skip Hicks, and QB Tim Rattay appear to be the lone heartbeats on this team.

WEAKNESS

Where do we start? At the top - ownership decision making is dreadful. RB Kevan Barlow is a me first bust, who is very poor in blitz recognition. If Barlow is in the line-up when rookie QB Alex Smith finally takes the field, look for him to have a long season on his back. The strongest team asset a rookie QB can have is a strong running game, a good O-line, and a solid defense - Smith has none of the above.

SUMMARY

The schedule is brutal. Non-division road trips to Philadelphia, Chicago, and Jacksonville - all teams with the defensive mind set that will give the Niners a lot of trouble. Non-division home games include Dallas, Indianapolis, and Tampa Bay. 

NFC West Forecast:

Arizona is a real wild card in the NFC West. With there style of play they could be in a lot of low scoring close contests - where anything can happen. Seattle comes in as the favorite, but are far from dominating. We don't see any totals play in the division worth hitting.

Kurt Schumacher

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