2005 football reports

& NFL Previews

A+   Rated Plays  Subscription NFL Picks or College Football Pick's as close as we come to  having a  "lock"  - But it's wrong about 30% of the time! A+ Play "in" when "Bulletin Page"  is highlighted

A  Rated Plays:  College Football or NFL Picks that we feel very good about.

B  Rated Plays:  Free College or NFL Pick that we feel good about.

Home

NFL Team Reports

The NFC South division shapes up to be one of the most competitive in the league.  The squads are closely equal talent wise, and any team has real potential to win the division if they can win 4 games within the division, that means whoever can pull off a road upset within the division will probably win it.  Schedule dynamics will play a key role in determining the division champion.  Mistakes could come into play, whichever team keeps from making a game losing error will probably come out on top.  Carolina and Atlanta have a decided advantage schedule wise, because they get their toughest common opponents at home, while Tampa and New Orleans will be on the road for their most difficult match-ups.

• Carolina - 10 wins

• Atlanta ( + ) - 9 wins

• Tampa Bay - 9 wins

• New Orleans - 7 wins

Carolina

STRENGTHS

Carolina has a good O-line, a great D-line, and HC John Fox installs great schemes on game day, which are well suited for the opposition.  Keep an eye on rookie RB Eric Shelton, he's tailor made for Fox's offense - and Stephen Davis has been hurt the past two seasons.  The defensive line is one of the leagues best, equally adept at stopping the run and rushing the passer.  Jake Delhomme is a bona-fide gunslinger.  Carolina likes to establish the run, then when teams commit to stopping it they won't hesitate to go deep over the top.  Carolina had more deep pass attempts than any other team in the league.

• Our win/loss projection has Carolina winning 10 games this season.

WEAKNESS

On defense the secondary is vulnerable.  Teams with good pass protecting offensive lines, with outside speed at receiver can move the ball on this defense; fortunately for Carolina there aren't many teams that fit that description on the schedule.  Carolina's offense primarily depends on establishing a consistent rush attack, teams with good rush defenses could give Carolina trouble.

SUMMARY

The NFC South draws the AFC EAST and the NFC Central. Fortunately for Carolina they get the powerhouses from those divisions ALL at home - New England, NY Jets, Green Bay, and Minnesota. The other home game is Dallas - a team they match-up well too.  Their non-division road games are at: Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, and Arizona.  Each of those venues are winnable games for the Panthers. 

Atlanta

•  Our Win/Loss model has Atlanta winning 9 games, with a slight upwards potential.  Meaning it is more likely they'll win 10 games than eight.

OFFENSE

Atlanta does well when they can establish the run and get up on opponents early.  RB Warrick Dunn is a multi-dimensional force.  We're not sold on QB Michael Vick as a top-notch phenom.  He's athletic and talented, but disciplined defenses have shown how to stop him.  Vick's passes are not that accurate, and he doesn't have the physically gifted receiver that can go up and get some of his erratic tosses.  Sometimes Vick doesn't make good decisions where to go with the ball... he just doesn't strike us as "cool" under pressure... ala Brady or Montana.

DEFENSE

The Atlanta defense has potential to be very good... not great but good. The defensive line unit in particular looks strong, they have both run stoppers and playmakers in the line-backing unit. The big question mark is the secondary.  Rookie CB DeAngelo Hall played decent last year... however Atlanta needs Hall to show solid improvement for the defense to become an area of strength. 

SUMMARY

The key to Atlanta's success will be how much CB DeAngelo Hall improves this year; his counterpart, CB Jason Webster, simply is not that good a cover man, and teams with more than one good receiver will move the ball on Atlanta.   Consider that Hall will be matched up against the oppositions best receiver, in order he'll face:  Terrell Owns, Darrell Jackson, Eric Moulds, Nate Burleson, Joe Horn 2X, Laveranues Coles, Chris Chambers, Javon Walker, Michael Clayton 2X, Roy Williams, and Steve Smith 2X.  Over the full course of the season that has to be the most formidable array of wideouts any cornerback has to guard in the league.  Teams with solid pass attacks could give Atlanta a lot of trouble, fortunately they get most of those opponents on their home turf.

Tampa Bay

The Bucs have to be wondering who's corn flakes they pissed in, because Tampa's road schedule is brutal. Last season Tampa only won 1 road contest.  If the Bucs can pull off an upset in their season opener at Minnesota, a match-up where they have a decided coaching advantage, they could be surprise division winners.

• Our win/loss projection model has Tampa  winning 9 games.

STRENGTHS

HC Gruden is a master offensive schemer.  Give him two weeks and he can put in a scheme that will move the ball on just about any defense in the league. Receiver Michael Clayton looks like the real deal, on the other side Galloway stretches the field.  QB Brian Griese is a hot and cold playmaker.  Sometimes he looks like a perfect fit for Gruden's short ball offense.

WEAKNESS

Tampa's offensive line is only average. We suspect that is why Griese's play is so erratic. Another potential weakness we foresee is rookie RB Cadillac Williams pass blocking.  Consider that Williams comes from run oriented Auburn, where they averaged 43 rush attempts per game, to only 16 pass attempts. Williams may have trouble with ultra quick pro blitz recognition this season. 

SUMMARY

Canbet has Tampa at a spendy -125 to win over 7 games. We think they can do it, but considering the schedule it'll be tight.  Tampa's non-division road opponents are: Minnesota, Green Bay, NY Jets, San Francisco, and New England - of these Frisco is the only game where they should be favored.  The non-division home slate includes Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, Washington, and Chicago. They should be favored in each of those contests.  If they split their division slate that's 9 wins. Consider that Carolina, and Atlanta have very good schemes with their front 7 and you can see why we think those two teams will give Tampa trouble. That logic also holds with the NY Jets and New England on the road.  New Orleans always seems to play Tampa tough, and we see those games as a split this year. If Tampa wins the games they should, and pulls off one upset along the way, then they could end up winning the division.  The final 5 games will be a brutal stretch for the Bucs, so they need to do well in the first half of the season to have any hope of winning the division title.

New Orleans

Coach Haslett may be the first coach axed this season.  He may be guilty of being too loyal to his coaching staff. Consider that this team has under performed for two straight seasons.  Last year the defense was rated last overall in the league, and DC Rick Venturi, who has been with the team for 10 years, is still coordinating the defense.

• Our 2005 win/loss projections model has New Orleans winning 8 times.

STRENGTHS

New Orleans has playmakers at key positions on both offense, and defense.

WEAKNESS

The problem with the Saints is their coaching sucks. QB Brooks makes great athletic plays, then frustrates the hell out of you with a turnover. The offensive line seems unfocused, and may have trouble opening holes for Deuce, who may not be as motivated a player after signing his huge extension.

SUMMARY

The schedule, like Tampa's, is brutal.  The only two games that differ are catching the NY Giants at home, and going to St. Louis on the road.  Last year the Saints won 5 games on the road at some very tough venues; but they also lost several contests they should have won.  The Saints seem to play up and down to the competition.  They're a solid play as large road dogs, but will disappoint your pocket book as favorites.

Forecast:

We wouldn't be surprised to see either Atlanta, or Tampa win this division (instead of Carolina).  Despite the talent base New Orleans continues to under perform... and we don't see that changing this year.  

• The best totals play in the division looks to be Tampa to win over 7 games.

Kurt Schumacher

Football Forecasters

Weekly NFL Picks

 Return to Football Forecasters Home Page