2005 football reports

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NFL Team Reports

Our season projection win/loss analysis takes a look at which team is most likely to win their division, with specific emphasis on the following criteria:

• Last years unit by unit team statistical analysis

• Off season losses/acquisitions that improve areas of need

• Schedule - opposition strengths, and when you play key opponents. With particular emphasis on division match-ups.

• Owner, GM, head coach, coordinators, and position coaching changes. With particular emphasis on system continuity.

• Projected fundamental unit to unit match-up advantages that can be exploited by a competent game plan.

The team most likely to win the division is not necessarily the best "play" to make so far as a future's pick. Too often the favorite has been played up by fan action. In the NFC North we do like the favorite, Minnesota, to win the division.  However, there is no value in this play, and we wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota falters and Detroit pulls things together to win the North.  Surprisingly, Green Bay grades out last in our projections.  Consider that the rest of the division has added personnel to improve areas of weakness, while Green Bay has made no key acquisitions, neither via free agency nor the draft; yet they have lost several quality players.

Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings are just about everybody's odds on favorite to win their division, and rightfully so.  So long as Dante' Culpepper stays healthy, the Vikes should roll. However, we have concerns about Minnesota's ability to sustain a high level of play over the full course of a season.  At -120 to win 9 games there is no value playing Minnesota as a futures pick.

• Our win/loss projection has Minnesota winning 9-10 games this season 

OFFENSE

Culpepper is highly respected around the league.  He is a quality individual, who is a leader on the field.  Culpepper may just have his best season yet.  The Vikings have playmakers at the key positions on offense; and will return key players on an improving defensive unit that has upgraded in the offseason.  Wide receiver Nate Burleson will not be asked to make-up for the loss of Randy Moss.  Burleson is a different type of receiver, he's very good at what he does. He's more of a precise route runner in the short to intermediate ranges.  The Vikings will count on  WR Marcus Robinson to be their deep ball threat, he's a solid vertical receiver. Running back Michael Bennett appears healthy again, and he has the wheels to take it to the house anytime he touches the ball.  The Vikes are set at the key positions on the offensive line, with Birk at center, and McKinnie at LT - so long as they stay in the line-up Minnesota should be able to move the ball on any team in the league.  Look for more of a consistent ball control type attack, and fewer quick strikes.

DEFENSE

Minnesota has made off season acquisitions on this side of the ball, with upgrades in both the secondary and line-backing units. They potentially have a very very good defensive line.  That coupled with what is shaping up to be a solid secondary gives the Viking a potentially dominating defense, to go with their potent offense.

SUMMARY

So what is holding Minnesota back?  The head shop. 

• Coaching decisions have historically been simply terrible.  Whether it's managing the time clock on draft day, play calling, or defensive alignments, the Vikings don't manage their decisions very well.  

This will cost them 1-2 regular season victories this season, and likely keep them from reaching the NFC championship.  The Vikings have the athleticism and talent to go all the way to the Superbowl, but until they are managed better, they will fall short of reaching their full potential.  Look for the new team owner to maintain status quo for 1 year, and say bye-bye to Team Tice at the end of the season.

Detroit

Joey Harrington - it's goodbye time.  Jeff Garcia is a tough upper tier QB who knows this offensive scheme.  Our guesstimation is that Garcia wins the starting job in camp. If not he'll probably be in the line-up after the bye in week 3.  The problem with going with Harrington early is that he has two tough division games right out of the gate - if Detroit starts 0-2 they would have a tough time catching Minnesota, due to a late season road stretch where they have 3 of 4 on the road. 

•  Our Win/Loss model has Detroit winning 8 games, with a modest upwards + projection.

• Detroit could be improved over last season - but still finish middle of the pack record wise.

OFFENSE

Detroit looks to be set at the skill positions. The potential weak link in this offense is the O-line. It's slightly above average, with little proven depth. If the O-line holds up the players have been in the west coast system for 3 seasons now and by now should know the sophisticated schemes.  This offense has potential to be very good.  With a smart QB throwing to him (someone who won't set him off to have his head taken off over the middle) Charles Rodgers might get through a full season.  Chicago's defensive scheme is going to give this team trouble, along with non-division foes Tampa, Carolina, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh.  

DEFENSE

The Defense isn't stellar, but should be improved over last year.  They are counting heavily on the return of unproven LB Boss Bailey.  Sophisticated offensive coordinators, and power rushing teams could give this unit trouble.  That doesn't bode well when looking at Detroit's schedule. If the run defense solidifies this unit could be much improved, if it doesn't opponents with even average rush attacks will be able to take advantage of establishing ground control, and hurting Detroit deep over the top.  Keep an eye on Detroit's first two division games and whether or not they can hold the opponents rush attack in check.

SUMMARY

Detroit should be a tough draw for opponents this year.  Coach Mooch finally has the pieces in place to make a serious run at the division title.  We took a long look at Detroit at +285 to win the division, we like it more than Green Bay at +280.  However, schedule dynamics weren't kind to Detroit - so we're going to pass on making a play on the Lions.  Canbet has Detroit at -145 to win over 8 games.  We like them to win 8, and think they have a realistic shot at 9 wins, but that price is just too high. 

Chicago

Vegas has the Bears at -130 to win over 7 games, and +900 to win the division.  Well, if Rex Grossman plays out of this world that would be a great pick.  However, unlike Roethlisberger last year, Grossman doesn't have the offensive line, or the weapons at the skill positions to take this team very far.  The defensive unit could be the best in the NFC North, and because of their strong defense we see them being a potential spot play at home, particularly as dogs against non-division opponents.

• Our win/loss projection model has Chicago winning 7 games, with a modest + projection, meaning they are more likely to win up to 8 games, than to drop to 6 wins.

OFFENSE

It looks like there will be an added emphasis on the running game this year.  Rookie RB Cedric Benson played in a pro style offense at Texas.  If he's in camp on time he should be a quick study so far as learning the nuances of picking up the blitz. His running mate Robert Jones will see plenty of touches as well.  The offensive line is average, but they do have talent at the key positions of Center and LT, in Olin Kreutz, John Tait. If these two play at a high level they could potentially field a better than average unit, pound the run and give Grossman time to throw the ball.  It's doubtful Muhsin Muhammad will repeat his success of last season, however, if the O-line improves we wouldn't be surprised to see Grossman develop into a solid, but not great, leader.

DEFENSE

This is the premier unit for the Chicago Bears.  With potential pro bowl caliber players in every unit it has potential to be a top 10 defense overall.  The secondary is the strength of the defense, and they are especially effective against teams that rely on a short pass ball control offense. The scheme and style of this unit should be especially effective stopping Green Bay and probably Detroit. If LB Brian Urlacher stays healthy they should improve against teams which favor a ball control rush attack, his successful return to pro bowl form will also take away the opposition's deep pass scoring opportunities, which was their Achilles heel on defense last year.

SUMMARY

Vegas has Chicago at -130 to win over 7 games.  This looks like the best totals play in the division. Chicago has some soft non-division opponents, if they take care of business in their house, and pull an upset or two on the road, most likely at New Orleans or possibly at Pittsburgh - who we think will be down this year, they have an excellent chance to reach .500.  Chicago is a scrappy team and could be a tough draw for opponents this year.

Green Bay

The schedule is brutal for a 7 game stretch beginning right after the bye. Favre and company will need to play flawless ball for this team to make the playoffs.  The beginning of the schedule is loaded with run-oriented teams, and Green Bay has been vulnerable against the run, giving up a whopping 4.6 yards per attempt.  Former Miami DC Jim Bates is the loan solid acquisition the Pack has made in the off-season. He'll have to do more with less if the Pack hopes to improve in 2005.

• Our 2005 win/loss projections model has Green Bay winning 7 times, with a slightly positive upwards potential.  

OFFENSE

The offense is loaded with pro bowl caliber players at all the skill positions. The weak link is potentially the offensive line. This is especially disconcerting because Favre does not make good decisions if the blitz consistently gets in his face.  He had numerous outings last year where he gave up more than 2 int's per game.  If they make the playoffs the pack have the potential to beat any team in the league, however, over the course of a 16 game schedule Green Bay will have to do a much better job of taking care of the ball if they are going to even reach the playoffs.

DEFENSE

The Packers are solid on the defensive line, and at corner back.  They are vulnerable over the middle, over the top, they'll have trouble with teams that can go 3-wide on offense, and with teams that have RB's who catch out of the backfield.  Linebacker and Safety look to be big question marks. LB Nick Barnett will have to improve greatly for that unit to improve.  Despite bringing in highly respected DC Jim Bates, there appears to be a shortage of talent for this unit to improve this season.  With an offense prone to giving up the pigskin, the defense looks to have it's work cut out for it this year.

SUMMARY

Pencil in October 30th as a potential play against the Pack... especially if they're favored going into Cincinnati, coming off an emotional game against arch-rival Minnesota. The Packers always have the potential to get the backdoor cover as a dog, but they also have considerable tendencies to turn the ball over against quality secondary's.  Also, keep a close eye on injuries to either of Green Bay's starting CBs, or offensive linemen.  GB is not deep at any position, and could collapse if the injury bug hits.

Forecast:

On talent alone Minnesota should be the odds on favorite to win their division.   But the field is too close and the price too high to warrant a futures play on the poorly managed Vikings.  The Pack stood pat and will take a step back.  Detroit and Chicago were busy in the off-season and look to have improved their squads considerably, they could surpass the Pack as up and coming powers within the division.

Kurt Schumacher

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