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NFL Team Reports

By Kurt Schumacher

Editor - Football Forecasters

Our division oriented forecasting model has New England barely winning the AFC East.  However, they are not necessarily the best futures pick to wager on in that division.  Consider that Canbet has them at -250 to win their division (meaning a $100 wager would payout $40); followed by NYJ at +285, and Buffalo at +750.  Based on how tight this division race shapes up to be, we'd take a hard look at making a small futures play on Buffalo to win their division.  Consider that at +750 (Canbet futures number), a small $100 wager would payoff at $750. Here is what our by-the-numbers division forecast model projects for the AFC East:

• New England - 9 (-) wins

• NY Jets -  9 (-) wins

• Buffalo -  8 (+) wins

• Miami -  3 wins

• We like the intangibles with Buffalo and pick them to outright win the division. 

We have Buffalo with a positive upwards mobility factor - meaning they are more likely to win 9 games (or more), than slip to 7 wins. There are positive intangible factors to consider with Buffalo, as well as negative intangible factors with the Patriots,  which we point out in the team write-ups below. The forecasting model indicates the Pats will win a very tight division race - but the wagering value is certainly with the Bills.  

New England

STRENGTHS

Last year the Patriots went 6-0 in division play - and  they look to be strong against their division foes again this year.  If they can just go 4-2 in their division, they could once again sit atop the AFC East. As the Pats new personnel adjust to the schemes, they should get stronger as the season progresses.  They catch Buffalo at home after a bye, and catch the NY Jets twice in the last 5 games of the season. The Patriots biggest strength is QB Tom Brady. Remember that before Bledsoe had his lung punctured, and Brady entered the line-up, the Patriots were a run-of-the-mill team. Brady is a perfect fit for Belichick's system, because he makes very good decisions with the ball, and doesn't give away field position. This intangible factor, coupled with the chess like mind of Belichick, enables the Patriots to win close games against very good teams.  This team will not be rattled in close contests. Anytime the Patriots are within a TD late in the 4th they'll have a legitimate chance at victory.  The running game is strong, and the offensive line executes well. The Patriots could feature a lot of two TE sets this season. 2nd year TE Ben Watson has been dynamic in camp - and could present some match-up problems for division opponents Miami and the NY Jets.

WEAKNESS

The Patriots endured a significant amount of turnover this off-season. The loss of both coordinators cannot be understated. If the Pats were performing at a championship caliber level before, how do you replace that kind of talent?  The Pats hope to answer that challenge by promoting former secondary coach Eric Mangini to DC, and Belichick has decided to handle the responsibilities of play calling himself.  The pats also lost key talent from the ILB positions - Ted Johnson and Tedi Bruschi. The veteran losses at ILB may be especially significant because in the Pats system these players are required to make reads and react - clogging the middle on passing plays and stuffing the run. To date the newcomers, LB's Monty Beisel and Chad Brown, have not been picking up the nuances of the defensive schemes. The secondary looks vulnerable. CB Duane Starks is a shell of his former self - the Pats are banking on their ability to coach him up to a return of his former pro-bowl level play. Teams that have 3 good wideouts should be able to move the ball on this defense. Consider that former premier secondary coach Eric Mangini is now the DC - secondary coach Joel Collier will be counted on to coach the secondary up. The Pats are strong at the safety positions, but just above average at CB. In our opinion the Patriots have chinks in their armor - and are ripe for being knocked off their perch atop the AFC East.

SCHEDULE SUMMARY

The non-division schedule ranks in the DAMN BRUTAL category. You cannot look at one spot on the schedule (other than Miami) and pencil it in as a win. Also consider that every stadium they visit the opposition will be "up" for them.  Teams highlighted in bold have "goto" match-up advantages they can apply against the Patriots.  The non-division road slate includes: Carolina, Atlanta, Denver, KC, and Pittsburgh.  The non-division home slate includes: Oakland, San Diego, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Indianapolis.  New England's two unique division opponents are on the road at Pittsburgh, and at home vs Indianapolis.  Pittsburgh they match-up well to, Indy they're going to have trouble with.  This is the 2nd toughest non-division schedule in the division. Consider that after off season losses New England's defense is bound to take a step back.  Our unit-on-unit match-up matrix indicates these non-division teams have advantages they can exploit vs the Pats:

• Carolina

• Denver

• Kansas City

• Oakland

• New Orleans

• Tampa Bay

• Indianapolis 

The Patriots will not lose all of those contests, but we don't project them to be as dominate as they have been in the recent past. The Patriots have 6 non-division games before their bye, they could very well be 2-4 going into the bye-week. However, after they get a chance to adjust to off-season changes, we project them to be a strong 2nd half of the season team - and if they can continue to dominate the division they'll win the East again.  However, we don't see them putting up the 11 wins Vegas has them totaled for. We have New England UNDER 11 as a B-rated totals play.

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NY Jets

STRENGTHS

This offense could be very good.  We're big believers in a healthy Chad Pennington, He makes good decisions and doesn't get rattled. He doesn't have a great deep pass, but he's very accurate on the short and medium routes, and reads the field extremely well - which is far more important than being able to throw an accurate 50 yard bomb. I don't get why analyst's keep dogging Pennington over his lack of a super strong arm - defenses can easily scheme to take away that part of a teams offense anyway. WR Justin McCareins and Laveranues Coles should both have very good years.  McCareins in particular should pose matchup problems for opponents.  The offensive line is good (not great).  It will be interesting to see what newly acquired TE Doug Jolley is able to do out of the double TE sets the Jets are planning to use.  Just as the Jets are starting to put together what looks like a strong offense, they draw what looks like the toughest damn schedule in the division.  The defensive front 7 looks to be a strong unit - however, if John Abraham is not in the line-up this unit will take a BIG step back in effectiveness.

WEAKNESS

If the Curtis Martin and Derrick Blaylock RB combination is able to maintain the Jets high level of rushing output the Jets should be competitive.  If they falter, then NY could be in for a long season.  Last year NY went 3-3 in division play, they need to at least split with New England to have any hope of winning the East. New OC Heimerdinger has been competitive in his matchups with New England, so there is reason for optimism. On the practical side we just don't see the unit-on-unit matchups that NY can exploit to defeat New England.  The Patriots on the other hand matchup very well to NY's strengths.

SCHEDULE SUMMARY

NY draws Baltimore and Jacksonville as their unique non-division opponents - the toughest such draw in the division - both of those opponents match-up well defensively to the Jets. The other non-division opponents are identical to New Englands - road games at KC, Atlanta, Carolina, and Denver. Non-division home games include: Tampa Bay, San Diego, New Orleans, and Oakland.  This is a tough tough schedule - no gimmees here. There are two key home games on the schedule, September 25th vs Jacksonville, and December 26th vs New England.  In the NFL you have to win at home to be successful - NY needs to win both of those contests to have a shot at the East title. There are alot of question marks for the Jets, and if things go bad early on, we wouldn't be surprised to see the Jets go into a downhill slide.

Buffalo

STRENGTHS

To win in the NFL you have to be able to effectively run the ball on 3rd and short.  Last Year Buffalo averaged 30 rush attempts, and 3.9 ypc, for 117 average rushing yards per game; but they ranked in the bottom half of the league in redzone offense. That 3.9 YPC is a little lower than you would like. This year, with a healthy Willis McGahee, and a mobile QB in JP Losman, look for that YPC rushing average to improve dramatically, and Buffalo to vault near the top in league rushing standings. The offensive line is a solid unit as a whole (despite questions at LT), newly acquired OG Bennie Anderson (from the Ravens) and the fullback Daimon Shelton are rock solid run blockers that should help the Buffalo offense move the ball in the redzone. Consider that the Bills road slate includes these opponents who ranked in the bottom half of the league in run defense:

• Miami           (31st)

• New Orleans (30th)

• Cincinnati     (25th)

• Oakland       (21st)

• Tampa Bay   (20th)

The Bills have speed on the outside flanker position in wideout Lee Evans - which should keep the opposition from stacking the line.  The Bills defense is one of the best in the league. The secondary in particular looks like an all-pro stacked unit. You combine a top 5 defense with a top 5 rush attack and you'll win a lot of games. If the young QB takes care of the pigskin Buffalo is poised for 2-3 road wins/upsets.

WEAKNESS

We are concerned at two key positions - LT and QB.  Former LT Jonas Jennings left, and his projected replacement looks to be a fall-off in talent; the young 2nd year QB is unproven - that is a tough combination to overcome.  However, the Bills have a stellar backup in veteran QB Kelly Holcomb.  Losman has a big arm, is mobile, and played in a pro style offense at Tulane, and he's had a year to learn the system.  If Buffalo is able to protect his blindside Losman could be an effective QB in this system.  The Bills could surprise a lot of people and do some great things this year.

SCHEDULE SUMMARY

The schedule is manageable.  The non-division road slate includes: Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Oakland, San Diego, and Cincinnati.  The non-division home slate includes: Houston, Atlanta, KC, Carolina, and Denver. The unique non-division opponents being Houston and Cincinnati. The Bengals look to be an improved team, but both those are winnable games for Buffalo.  If the Bills take care of business at home, and can go 4-2 in their division, they can win the East.  If they can at least go 3-3 in division play they have a good shot at a wildcard.

• Of the strongest team in the AFC East Buffalo has the easiest schedule. 

• The Bills have favorable unit-on-unit matchups with New England they can exploit.

Our division forecasting model has Buffalo winning 8 games, with a positive upwards potential. What jumps out to us about Buffalo, is they have favorable unit-on-unit matchups to give their arch division rivals, the Patriots, a run for their money. They host New England at home on December 11th - this will be a key game for the Bills. If they can solve the riddle of beating the Patriots (at least once), and sweep Miami (who will have an extremely difficult time moving the ball on this defense), then the Bills could be a surprise division winner. If the Bills QB productivity is at least average, then Buffalo could have a very solid season.  We have Buffalo, at +750 at Canbet to win the AFC East, as a B-rated futures pick selection.

Miami

STRENGTHS

Well, we like WR Chris Chambers.  Outside of Chambers the offensive unit is hurtin.  The offensive line is void  of talent, and that's going to really hurt. HC Nick Saban may turn  this team into a winner one day, but it won't be in 2005.  DE Jason Taylor is a proven talent, but will he be as effective in the new defensive scheme?

WEAKNESS

You have a HC and GM who is bringing in His "system" to the team, as opposed to adapting a system to his existing talent. The cupboard was nearly bare when He arrived - It will take at least one season, and probably two, for Saban to acquire the players he needs to implement his system effectively. The talent base on defense took a big hit via free agency, and several key players are slowing due to age, or are learning an entirely new system.  Saban relied heavily on emotional motivational tactics at LSU - those tricks don't work at the NFL level.

SCHEDULE SUMMARY

The unique non-division opponents are at Cleveland and home vs Tennessee. Those are probably the most winnable games on the schedule. Consider that at Miami there is a new system being put into place on both sides of the ball.  The top of the division is strong, and all have favorable matchup advantages they can exploit with Miami.  We project Miami to play against 10 teams with .500 or better records in 2005. Vegas has the win/loss projection for Miami at Over/Under 5.5 games.  Canbet has Miami at +145 to win UNDER 5.5 games.  WE have Miami down for 3 wins this season. We consider the Miami UNDER 5.5 wins a B-rated totals play.

AFC East Forecast Summary:

Belichick knows how to game plan a team - and he knows how to beat the teams in his division. For either the Jets or the Bills to take the next step, they're going to have to take care of business at home and beat the Patriots. Buffalo looks like an intriguing prospect - there are some unknowns, but they have the weapons in place to matchup to the Patriots. The numbers don't lie, they're based on last years stats and this years projections, but a handicapper has to throw in the "hunch" value when making a selection - and in the AFC East the intangible's have us picking Buffalo to win their division.

Kurt Schumacher

Editor - Football Forecasters

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