2005 football reports

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We deviate from Vegas futures on the AFC West division picks. Although we too have KC winning the division in 2005 as you can see our placement from the two-hole to the cellar vary significantly from Vegas projections.  Our win/loss schedule matrix adjusts for team strength vs. opposition strength. A team such as Oakland may not be as good as Denver head to head, however, because of a more favorable schedule, and positive match-up advantages, they grade out slightly ahead of Denver in the division race.

• Kansas City - 10 wins

• Oakland -  9  wins

• Denver -  9 (-) wins

• San Diego -  8 wins

The AFC West teams common opponents are the AFC East, and the NFC East.  In addition each West team faces one unique opponent from the AFC South and the AFC North.  The West teams are very competitive within their division, but KC and Oakland draw the easiest non-division schedule, and most favorable unit-on-unit match-ups.

Kansas City

STRENGTHS

Perhaps the biggest asset for the Chiefs is continuity on the offense. They have four super weapons in RB Priest Holmes, TE Tony Gonzalez, QB Trent Green, and a premier veteran offensive line. The Chiefs lack a proven home run hitter at receiver, but Gonzalez is utilized more as a receiver in this offense. Respected DC Cunningham finally gets some free agent weapons to patch holes in a leaky defense (additions of S Sammy Knight, CB Patrick Surtain, and LB Kendrell Bell). The Chiefs suffered no significant free agent losses.

• Our win/loss projection has Kansas City winning 10 football games this season

WEAKNESS

The Chiefs are counting heavily on 2nd year receiver Samie Parker to man the split end position.  Parker is a burner, who came on late last year and has looked good thus far in camp. Still he's an unproven commodity. The defensive line won't scare people, and KC may be vulnerable against disciplined defenses that are supported by strong ball control rush attacks. 

SCHEDULE SUMMARY

We have 4 critical non-division contests (bold font) highlighted for KC (@Buffalo, @Dallas, and home vs. Philly, and New England.  Each of these squads pose unique match-up problems for KC, and we think the Chiefs will need to win 1-2 of those four difficult non-division games.  The good news is KC also draws Houston on the road, and Cincinnati at home as unique non-division foes - and they should be favored in both those games. The remaining non-division schedule consists of @Miami, @NYG, NYJ, and Washington - where they should be favored in each contest.

• KC easily has the most favorable schedule in their division - especially catching common division opponents Philly & New England at tough Arrowhead stadium

Canbet has Kansas City at -125 to win OVER 9 games - we have KC winning 10-11 games this year - the KC OVER 9 is a B-rated totals football pick.  They may not go deep in the playoffs, but KC should win the NFL's AFC West.

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Oakland

•  Our Win/Loss model has Oakland winning 9 football games, with a highly volatile +/- matrix.

OFFENSE

HC Norv Turner only took 2 seasons to get his type of players in place on the offense. Everybody knows about Moss, Jordan, and Porter.  But you cannot underestimate the strength of this Oakland offensive line.  It looks very solid on paper, and has now been together through a full season.  The Raiders are going to pose some significant match-up problems for opposing defenses with their ability to go a talented 4 deep at wideout.  We don't see RB Lamont Jordan averaging 25 rushes a game, like typical Norv RB's have in the past.  But we do see him being a viable part of what looks to be a prolific offense (we project Jordan to average 18-20 rushes per game).

DEFENSE

The defense looks like crap... ugh.  We pick it to finish last.  Raiders simply don't have the personnel to run a 3-4, and it looks like they are committed to going that way.  They have a quality DE in Tyler Brayton and are wasting his skills playing him at OLB in a 3-4.  CB Charles Woodson is among the top 3-5 corners in the league, but outside of him the secondary is very young and unproven.  An interesting observation, Oakland is deep with middling talent at DB, and they could be in their dime package often....  Look for teams with good #2 & 3 receiver's, pass catching RB's, or teams with strong rush attacks to give the Raiders trouble (surprisingly there are few teams with those criteria on the schedule).

SCHEDULE SUMMARY

Oakland's non-division road foes include New England and Philadelphia - ouch; in addition they draw Tennessee, Washington, and the NY Jets.  The non-division home slate includes Dallas, Buffalo, Miami, Cleveland, and the NY Giants; they should be favored in each of those contests, but the Raiders being the Raiders will likely only win 3-4 of those homers.  The good news for Oakland is our unit-on-unit match-up matrix indicates that outside of Philadelphia, the Raiders should have match-up advantages in every other game they play this season (including on the road at New England).  In particular look for the NFL opening ESPN televised contest with the Patriots to be a high scoring shoot-out.  Look for the road contest at Tennessee to be the play-off determiner for the Raiders - if Oakland wins that contest (which they have the match-up advantages to prevail) they could be a wildcard team.

Denver

STRENGTHS

HC Mike Shanahan is excellent at identifying weakness, and scheming to exploit those weakness's in the opposition. They have a very good offensive line, a savvy QB, solid stable of RB's, and a true game braking deep threat outside burner in WR Ashlie Lelie.

WEAKNESS

The defensive line could be a major vulnerability for the Bronco's.  It's early, but thus far it's not looking like the bevy of defensive free agents the Bronco's brought in is panning out. DT Gerard Warren could be good, but he's more of a play-making get to the passer tackle.  What Denver sorely needs is a disciplined two-gap tackle that can keep their athletic LB's free to make plays.  CB Champ Bailey was somewhat disappointing last year, but we suspect he'll bounce back this season.  Teams with disciplined defenses, and strong offensive lines (teams that can control time of possession) will create match-up problems for the Bronco's.  Otherwise, this offense will put points up on people.

SCHEDULE SUMMARY

The schedule is a match-up nightmare. We have identified a division high 6 critical non-division games for Denver (bold font).  The road slate includes: Miami, Jacksonville, NYG, Dallas, and Buffalo.  Jacksonville (with a healthy Fred Taylor), Dallas, and Buffalo all match-up particularly well to Denver.  The home slate includes Washington, New England, Philadelphia, NY Jets, and Baltimore.  Their unique non-division foes are Jacksonville, and Baltimore.  This is probably the toughest schedule in the AFC West division. 

• We have Denver at +160 UNDER 8.5 wins as a C+ rated totals pick. 

We have Denver down for winning 9 games.  However, our unit-on-unit match-up matrix indicates Denver could be in for a few upsets along the way. Vegas has Denver pegged for 9-10 wins, but we think it's more likely they'll slip to 8 wins than jump to ten.

San Diego

STRENGTHS

HC Marty Schottenheimer and Dennis Green are similar in their football coaching philosophy - they get the most out of what they have - and both excel at running low budget football teams.  TE Antonio Gates was thee difference maker for the Chargers last year. The young offensive line played beyond anyone's projections. And LT played another stellar season. San Diego absolutely needs QB Drew Brees and the offensive line to continue playing at a high level for the Chargers to have success in 2005.  

WEAKNESS

Neither of San Diego's projected starting wideouts (McCardell and Parker) have good deep speed. This allows opposing defenses to scheme-up to stop the run. Defenses in this league can scheme to take away one player threat, and make you beat them elsewhere. At least some of TE Gates phenomenal success is attributable to defenses gearing up to slow/stop LT.  The Chargers could really use a bona-fide burner on the outside to make defenses pay for playing 8 in the box.  Keenan McCardell and Eric Parker are pretty much possession receivers, Parker maybe an underrated talent going into 2005, but he'll be drawing the opposing teams top cover man so don't expect game breaking stats from him.

SCHEDULE SUMMARY

The NFL schedule is brutal; our unit-on-unit match-up matrix has identified 6 critical contests for the Chargers.  The non-division road slate includes New England, Philadelphia, NY Jets, Washington, and Indianapolis - the Chargers should be dogs in at least 4 of those venues - and because of various match-up problems will have a difficult time pulling off upsets - we certainly don't anticipate making the Chargers road underdog NFL picks.  The non-division home slate consists of Dallas, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Miami. They could conceivably pull off a home sweep, but we don't think that's likely, and have factored the Chargers for at least one non-division home loss. The two unique non-division foes are Indy and Pittsburgh - both of whom pose match-up problems for the Chargers. San Diego lost their talented offensive line coach to Miami, and were not active players in the free agent market. 

• Surprisingly, we have San Diego as statistically the most likely team to finish last in the AFC West

AFC West Forecast Summary:

We feel pretty secure picking KC to win, and San Diego to come in last, in the AFC West.  We wouldn't be surprised if Oakland, due to their shortcomings on defense, slips a bit and despite having the tougher schedule Denver comes in second.  We've tried to be objective and analytical in our analysis - and don't intend to offend if we've "picked" on a favorite player or team - but we call it as we see it (sorry San Diego Fans).  Peace.

Kurt Schumacher

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