2005 football reports

& NFL Previews

A+   Rated Plays  Subscription NFL Picks or College Football Pick's as close as we come to  having a  "lock"  - But it's wrong about 30% of the time! A+ Play "in" when "Bulletin Page"  is highlighted

A  Rated Plays:  College Football or NFL Picks that we feel very good about.

B  Rated Plays:  Free College or NFL Pick that we feel good about.

Home

NFL Team Reports

My season projection win/loss analysis takes a look at which team is most likely to win their division, with specific emphasis on the following criteria:

• Last years unit by unit team statistical analysis

• Off season losses/acquisitions that improve areas of need

• Schedule - opposition strengths, and when you play key opponents. With particular emphasis on division match-ups.

• Owner, GM, head coach, coordinators, and position coaching changes. With particular emphasis on system continuity.

• Projected fundamental unit to unit match-up advantages that can be exploited by a competent game plan.

Our totals projections are heavily weighted to division contests.  Of course we cannot take into account injuries at the time of these forecasts.  The division weighted win/loss projection for the AFC South closely resembles Vegas' NFL futures totals projections:

• Indianapolis - 11 wins

• Jacksonville - 9 wins

• Houston - 7 wins

• Tennessee - 7 wins

Indianapolis Colts

OFFENSE

The Indianapolis offense should be potent again this season, but we don't think Peyton will be throwing for 49 TDs again.  Last season it was apparent Peyton was going after the record. Consider the games where the Colts had a two score lead and he racked up multiple TD passes versus overmatched opponents.  While most teams in that situation will run out the clock, Peyton was spraying the ball around with pinpoint precision to his second, third, and fourth downfield options.

• Our win/loss projection has Indianapolis winning 11 games this season 

Teams with defensive lines that can consistently put pressure on the QB, and play a two deep defense with solid secondary's can give the Colts trouble.  However, the Colts only face five of those combinations on the schedule - and we have them winning 2 of them.  Until the rest of the  AFC South instills defenses similar to the brand and attitude that Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and New England play the Colts will be the Kings of the AFC.

DEFENSE

The defensive secondary could be an improved unit this year. They should be because there is a lot of room for improvement. So long as DE Dwight Freeney is coming off the edge with his speed rush this will be a viable unit.  It's too bad the Colts don't have a solid group of safeties, because with the disruption that Freeney brings this defense is stopping opponents but not taking the ball away as much as you would expect.

SUMMARY

Pay attention to the season opener at Baltimore.  The Ravens have the prototypical defense that can give the Colts timing offense trouble.  HC Billick is the type of schemer that can exploit weakness in an opponent.  Look for the Ravens to run right at Freeney and perhaps pull off the home upset. This could be the league wide blueprint on how to stay competitive with the Colts.  Peyton has a losing record in big games - and this will be a big home opener for Billick's Ravens (installed a 3 point home dogs).

Jacksonville

•  Our Win/Loss model has Jacksonville winning 9 games

OFFENSE

We really like Leftwich. Unfortunately, outside of Jimmy Smith he just doesn't have many downfield weapons in this offense. The Jaguars are a team desperate for a big play receiver.  Take away the big play and Leftwich is not accurate enough on the short passes to make opponents pay.  The jaguars did not help themselves with recent 1st round selections in the draft, as WR's Reggie Williams and Matt Jones are years away from contributing to the offense.  The Jags have an average O-line, and if Fred Taylor gets hurt, or isn't recovered from last season, this could be a tough year for the Jags offense.

DEFENSE

The defense has potential to be very good... not great but good. This unit excels at taking away the inside run, and forcing teams to beat you with a precision pass attack.  They take away the opponents deep game and force them to work the length of the field.  There will be at least one new starter at CB, and at this time it's looking like a rookie.  The Jags rely on disciplined zone coverage schemes in the secondary. If the starting three stay healthy the zone scheme can help protect the new guy. Until the Jags find an outside pass rush this unit can remain good, but will fall short of dominating.

SUMMARY

Since the Jags did not make a strong push for Travis Henry we're projecting that dynamic RB Fred Taylor will play.  However, if Taylor is out that could cost the Jags one of only two offensive playmakers on the roster - so keep a close eye on the Taylor situation.  Teams with solid tackles on the O-line, and precision passing offenses will give the Jags trouble (read Indianapolis).  Keep an eye on the Jaguars in September.  After opening at home against Seattle they face 3 potentially very good precision offenses (Indy, NY Jets, and Denver). Look for Peyton to go after the rookie, if he's able to exploit the Jags secondary they could slip in the division race. 

Houston

The Texans targeted the wrong player in their trade with Oakland, they should have traded their 2nd round pick for experienced LT Barry Sims.

• Our win/loss projection model has Houston winning 7 games.

OFFENSE

We're surprised the Texans did not address their huge questions at left tackle.  With exceptional talent like David Carr, Andre Johnson and Domanick Davis, Houston appears just one player away from fielding an explosive offense unit.  Until the question mark on the left side of the offensive line is fixed opponents will be able to exploit this major area of weakness.

With the rich talent base on this offense it's simply irresponsible for ownership not to address the problem on the left side of the O-line.  With the right stopper in front of him Carr has the potential to be great.

DEFENSE

The Texans rank in the lower third of the league in pass defense.  They play the 3-4 and don't get much pressure on the QB from their outside linebacker's - that situation doesn't look to improve this year.  They have high hopes for former Raider cornerback Phillip Buchanon, trading their 2nd rounder for him....  Even if Buchanon plays up to his strong physical potential the Texans don't have the ability to consistently put pressure on opposing QB's to take advantage. Outside of CB Dunta Robinson look for this secondary to again be an exploitable unit.

SUMMARY

Canbet has Houston at -130 to win fewer than 8 games. 

• Considering the Texans formidable schedule this is a play worth taking a hard look at.

Houston does not match up well to the precision Indianapolis pass attack, they face 3 tough road defenses at Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Baltimore, and they draw Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and St. Louis at home - that's 8 games where they should rightfully be installed as dogs. In addition they draw Cincinnati on the road.  The Bengals have a formidable rush attack with an improving passing offense that the Texans will have trouble matching up against.

Tenneessee

The schedule presents a brutal opening 4 game stretch (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, St. Louis, and Indianapolis).

• Our 2005 win/loss projections model has Tennessee winning 7 times, with a modest negative projection.

OFFENSE

The trade for RB Travis Henry should help.  Henry's attributes fit this offense and fills a need. The offensive line is above average, QB Steve McNair is a savvy leader.  Receiver Drew Bennett looks solid, but after that there is no proven talent at the 2 and 3 spots.  Incoming OC Norm Chow has the pedigree and QB to be successful. Look for the Titans to play a conservative ball control brand of football this season, designed to keep their defense off the field.  TE Ben Troupe could be one of McNair's popular targets this season.

DEFENSE

This is where it starts to look ugly for the Titans.  The defensive line has potential to be solid up the middle, but with the passing offenses in this division the secondary could be a sieve this season.  CB Woolfolk was a reach as a first round draft pick two years ago... he has not performed well covering 3rd receivers in the nickel package, so how is he going to do covering No. 1 receivers?  Tennessee drafted "Pac-Man" in the 1st round, but its looking like that pick might be a bust before he even steps on the field. Tennessee doesn't have good edge rushers, and that makes it especially difficult for this secondary.  

SUMMARY

We like a healthy QB McNair as a leader and savvy player; and HC Fisher always gets the most out of what he has. Despite a dearth of talent, the Titans should be competitive at home. They draw several home matches against poorly performing road teams traveling from the east coast - Seattle, Oakland, and San Francisco.  They also draw Cleveland, Arizona and Miami on the road. Of these 6 teams Oakland is the only one with a passing offense that can consistently exploit Tennessee's secondary vulnerability.

Forecast:

We don't see anybody here threatening the Colts as AFC South winners, the problem is that neither does Vegas. With Vegas having a tight line on this division, the best play to make might be the UNDER with the Houston Texans - with their questions at LT and the secondary we don't see them reaching .500 this year.

Kurt Schumacher

Football Forecasters

Weekly NFL Picks

 Return to Football Forecasters Home Page