2005 football reports

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NFL Team Reports

My season projection win/loss analysis takes a look at which team is most likely to win their division, with specific emphasis on the following criteria:

• Last years unit by unit team statistical analysis

• Off season losses/acquisitions that improve areas of need

• Schedule - opposition strengths, and when you play key opponents. With particular emphasis on division match-ups.

• Owner, GM, head coach, coordinators, and position coaching changes. With particular emphasis on system continuity.

• Projected fundamental unit to unit match-up advantages that can be exploited by a competent game plan.

Our totals projections are heavily weighted to division contests.  Of course we cannot take into account injuries at the time of these forecasts.  The division weighted win/loss projection for the AFC South closely resembles Vegas' NFL futures totals projections:

• Baltimore - 11 wins

• Pittsburgh - 9 wins (B-rated totals - UNDER 9.5) 

• Cincinnati - 8 wins

• Cleveland - 4 wins

Baltimore Ravens

STRENGTHS

A Football Forecaster believe it or not - QB Kyle Boller.  Our analysis of his play - he usually makes very good decisions with the ball.  He should make great strides this year.  Consider that he'll have pro bowl caliber TE Alge Crumpler back in the line-up, and savvy WR Derrick Mason running downfield routes.  Crumpler plays more like a wideout than a traditional TE, giving Boller two viable downfield targets.  Last year Crumpler's absence due to injury hurt the offense.  The addition of free agent's CB Samari Rolle, WR Derrick Mason, and OG Keydrick Vincent are huge quality additions to the line-up.  Vincent may have been the biggest signee, because he makes a quality addition to the running game, while taking away a key cog from their arch division rival.  The Baltimore rush attack should be potent, and their pass attack will be respectable.  

• Our win/loss projection has Baltimore winning 11 games this season, with no appreciable +/- leanings.  Meaning it's very likely they'll win 11 games. 

Outside of Indy and Denver their toughest schedule match-ups should come from within their own division. 

WEAKNESS

The defensive secondary can occasionally be burned for big plays. SS Ed Reed takes too many chances and can be burned with good double moves. This entire defense takes chances, sometimes it pays-off and sometimes it really hurts. With the improving development of the offense the defense needs to adjust their defensive philosophy to stopping the opposition, as opposed to going for the takeaway and game-breaking score.  We suspect that because this offense has been the heart and soul of this team for so long that this may be a too difficult adjustment for the D to make... and it may cost them a game or two.

SUMMARY

The schedule is relatively easy.  They get the AFC South and outside of Indy they match-up well to that division.  From the NFC Central they draw Green Bay at home and Chicago on the road - both winnable games, they match-up well to Minnesota who they get play at home, they go to Detroit where they enjoy another solid match-up advantage.  At Denver will be competitive, there are match-ups the Bronco's can exploit.  They draw the Jets at home and should control if they don't overlook NY's deep speed. In their division they should sweep Cleveland, and likely split with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.  Surprisingly to us we have them down for 11 wins.

Pittsburgh Steelers

•  Our Win/Loss model has Pittsburgh winning 9-10 games

STRENGTHS

This team has a knack for developing players. It starts in the trenches on the offensive and defensive lines.  DC Dick LeBeau is underrated as a defensive schemer and motivator. We like the steadfast play and run stopping ability of SS Troy Polamalu. The linebacking unit is among the best in the league.  WR Hines Ward is a crushing downfield blocker on running plays, and has sure hands in the passing game.  WR Antwaan Randle El will match-up against the oppositions #2 cover man and probably surprise quite a few DB's with his ability.

• Pittsburgh matches up well to run oriented teams with average to poor passing offenses.

WEAKNESS

This team lost 3 team leaders and solid starters in free agency, and they weren't very active in filling the holes during the off-season. Last year's rookie phemon QB Ben Roethlisberger is a quick study.  We followed Ben when he played for Miami-OH in College, and liked his gamesmanship.  He's a confident and sharp QB.  That said last year teams adjusted to his early success and began to figure him out. They stopped blitzing him, doubled teamed Hines Ward, and disguised their coverage schemes. We're concerned about Roethlisberger's lack of experience, and the unrealistic expectations placed on him.  He's still a novice at reading defenses, and doesn't have the depth at WR to exploit an offense.

The defense is vulnerable against teams with solid pass blocking schemes and potent ball control pass attacks that can go both deep and strike underneath.

SUMMARY

• We like CANBET's UNDER 9.5 at +120 as a B-rated totals play on Pittsburgh

The 2005 schedule presents several opponents with solid passing attacks that could give Pittsburgh match-up problems - probable losses on the road include - Cincinnati, Green Bay, Indianapolis, and Minnesota.  Pittsburgh probably loses to arch division rival at Baltimore playing in their house. That's 5 losses.

At home they face non-division foes New England, Jacksonville, and Detroit.  We have them penciled in as favorites (WINS) in these contests, but the fundamental match-up and scheduling dynamics of these spots presents the real potential for an upset or two. Potential strong match-ups include Tennessee, Houston, Chicago and Cleveland (twice).  That's seven wins.

The 2 wildcards on the schedule are away games at Houston and San Diego.  Houston should be a dogfight, as neither team has match-ups they can exploit, and the Steelers may get caught looking ahead to New England.  Ditto San Diego, we'll project the home teams to pull-out wins in those contests, or at best a split.

Cincinnati

Cincinnati is an improving football team and will present a formidable opponent in 2005.  Unfortunately they draw a tough schedule, and may struggle to reach .500

• Our win/loss projection model has Cincinnati scraping to win 8 games.

OFFENSE

The Bengals boast a dynamic work horse rusher in Rudi Johnson, and they have a talented group of wideouts led by Chad Johnson.  The offensive line is well above average.  If Carson Palmer stays on track and continues to improve on his scheme recognition skills, and decisions made under pressure, this offense could become multi dimensional and very dangerous this year.

DEFENSE

The defensive line is a potential weak link, the secondary is solid to good, and the linebacking unit has the potential to be good.  HC Marvin Lewis is getting his players in place.  The defensive front 4 stands out to us as a journeyman caliber unit. Not a difference maker in big games.  This defense will rely more on team schemes than the individual athletes within the schemes. The defensive line should be the heart and soul of an defense, and this team may be missing theirs.

SUMMARY

Cincinnati is vulnerable against teams with solid secondary's and/or capable  rushing attacks right up the gut. Teams like Minnesota, Chicago, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Kansas City should all play the Bengals competitively.  They do catch two patsy's - Cleveland - X2.

Cleveland

 There is a lack of talent in Cleveland, the cupboard is bare. With the incoming Romeo Crennel era there is a radical shift in defensive philosophy, the impact is the players he inherited don't match the scheme Crennel wants to run.  The schedule presents a 3 game opening stretch of Cincinnati, @Green Bay, and @Indianapolis.  The Browns could be 0-3 at their bye.

• Our 2005 win/loss projections model has Cleveland winning 4 times. And only 4 times.

OFFENSE

This is a team in flux.  A solid stable of running backs, with an average rushing line, with no proven talent at wideout. The problem is opponents will stack the line and force journeyman QB Trent Dilfer to beat you through the air. But he's playing behind a so-so offensive line, and has no WR threats that strike concern in the opposition. Their most promising player is a rookie (Braylon Edwards).

DEFENSE

Despite less talent this defense may actually improve on last years stats over the course of the season.  With so many new faces, and implementation of new schemes it's difficult to project how the Browns will do. However, based on his history with the Pats, we can project that Cleveland will not easily give up the big play, and give 100% effort.  We anticipate Cleveland will have difficulty with teams that have strong passing attacks.

SUMMARY

Of course QB Trent Green is just a caretaker. The schedule is tough, and Cleveland will be hard pressed to win a division contest.  Vegas has the number at 4 wins - and that's how we see it.

Forecast:

We see the improved Ravens as the rightful favorites to win the division - with the key free agents they've brought in it's apparent they're making a serious run at the title.  Keep and eye on Boller in the early going. Don't be surprised if Ben Roethlisberger experiences sophmore growing pains.

Kurt Schumacher

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