JP's 2003 Weekly NFL Football Office Pool Picks 

Team previews index page. J.P. Savage presents his thoughts on each weeks NFL contests

JP's straight up office pool picks are not necessarily the views of Football Forecasters ATS picks.

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Savage's Office Pool Picks

By J.P. Savage

(Picks in Caps)

If I don’t get too excited over this game, please forgive me. I’m not. So far the Tuna and his charges have beaten up on the Jets and Giants. As for the Cards, treating the Packers to a little Arizona heat, and beating them wasn’t a great shake either. The edge goes to the Pokes because of Emmitt Smith’s parting shots against his old team. Parcells will find ways to remind his players of the comments, without going into details. Smith is going to eat a lot of Texas turf, and even though the Arizona passing game will be respectable, Cowboys RB Troy Hambrick is going to do what it takes to make people remember why they dumped Smith and kept him around to carry the mail. A Cowboys win, but next week they play an NFL team. The Eagles.

Will this be a showdown between Broncos RB Clint Portis and Chiefs RB Priest Holmes? It could be, but you might figure their level of talent to be a wash. The biggest question might be if Portis can even play, or is healthy enough to make an impact? The difference could come on the defensive side of the ball, and at QB, where Denver offers up Jake Plummer, and KC throws Trent Green into the mix. There’s little doubt that the Broncos defense is a lot better than last year, and after the showing the Chiefs D had (10 points to the Ravens in week #4), it may appear to be a wash as well. As for the HCs, both Mike Shanahan of the Broncos & Dick Vermeil of the Chiefs are aware of the significance of this game, and can use it as a stepping-stone to take control of the AFC West with a 5-0 record. The question is, which coach will sell his team a better game plan, and which team will be prepared to negate the offensive threat of the other? A tough one to call, but we’re going with KC because it’s being played on their turf. I’m going to tape this one so I can see the whole thing. My biggest question is whether or not it will look like an NBA score or if the defenses they’ve both shown are real?

If anyone was wondering, there is life in Minnesota without QB Daunte Culpepper on the field. It’s called Gus Frerotte, and everyone knows he doesn’t hail from Valhalla. Give credit to HC Mike Tice and his crew of coaches for developing a game plan that not only beat the 49ers by a lopsided score, it made Terrell Owens look like a #3 receiver. It wasn’t the first time for TO, but according to Niners HC Dennis Erickson, it will be the last one. As for the Falcons, forget this one. The Vikings D will eat up their passing game, and stop them on the ground as well. It’s not that the Vikings are really all that great; it’s just that the Falcons ain’t all that good without their poster boy. On defense, the Falcons would need four extra men on the field to stop Vikes WR Randy Moss from having a good game. It’s a Vikings win on the road. Will wonders never cease!

Don’t get the impression that picking the Raiders indicates they aren’t in trouble. They didn’t look that impressive in nipping the SD Chargers who remain the doormat of the AFC West. The problem is, the Bears aren’t in trouble, they’re almost dead in the water. The Raiders RBs should have a field day running against the Bears defense. They were burned badly by Ahman Green on Monday. The Bears Monday night “comeback” against the Packers only made the score look respectable, they were really never in the game. As for the stars of the game, it will be the guys in the trenches for the Raiders. They will turn it up a notch on defense and make it difficult for Bears QB Bambi Stewart to do anything but freeze in the headlights. The Raiders will celebrate this victory by popping the corks on several bottles of Geritol on their flight back to the Bay. If I were a Bears fan (fortunately I’m not - Jim Belushi is), I’d be asking when that UFO that landed inside Soldier Field is heading back to Pluto, and finding out if the coaches and GM have tickets to ride. To Jim Belushi, on a Personal Note: Please don’t help the Cubs like you did the Bears! Give ‘em a break guy! Root for the Braves!

If the Patriots can’t beat the Redskins, what on earth would make anyone believe they can beat the Titans defense and stop Steve McNair from finding open men with a few of his rockets? Even when Titan QB McNair is out passed, and their running game is horrible (It usually is, so don’t sweat it!), the defense steps up and puts a few nasty bruises on your game plan. The Pats will find out just how nasty it is, even though they have home cooking. Titans HC Jeff Fisher has his team believing in themselves, and that’s what it takes to win in this league. If you don’t believe me, ask the Steelers, who had everything going for them last week, but ended up getting bushwhacked by the Titans, and lost 30-13. It’s another Titan win. They’re just too tough to figure out without a great game plan. This isn’t the week for it to happen despite the Patriots ability to bounce back after losses.

So, how many people picked Cincy to win last week? I didn’t. I won’t do it again this week either, even if the Bills don’t have RB Travis Henry running the ball. The Bengals gave HC Sherm Lewis his present for the first half of the season, and they won’t be able to do it again against the Bills. Adding to their woes, they may very well not have the services of RB C. Dillon for the game. That being the case, QB Jon Kitna could become an endangered species in a hurry, if the Bills can turn loose on him, with a blitz. We won’t be seeing Kitna making all the nice speeches about his teammates either. By the time the bruises heal, he’ll have called them every name he can think of, and then some.

I hate this game! I don’t like picking one of these two until Saturday, or maybe even 10 minutes before game time. At this point there’s no doubt that the fish get the nod at RB with R. Williams over the Giants T. Barber, but when it comes to QBs, I’ve never believed fish QB J. Fiedler belonged under center as a starter in the NFL. I don’t like Dolphins HC Dave Wannstadt any better as a mentor, so I so no reason to pick them this week. I’ll go with the Giants. Wannstadt will be standing on the sideline with that “vacant lot” look in his eyes before the fourth quarter starts. Of course that doesn’t mean I think the Giants are that good, just the better of two poor teams in a contest. By the way, is this game going to be broadcast on TV or is it a private affair?

The Colts blew out the Saints in week #4. They gave up 55 points. The Panthers on the other hand were so stingy that they only gave the Falcons a lousy FG over 60 minutes. Guess what? Carolina’s D is very good. As for the Saints, I won’t even call their D “suspect,” because giving up 55 points isn’t suspect, or even anemic, it’s horrible. I’ve never been convinced that the college style play of Saints QB Aaron Brooks could lead them to the Promised Land, and this week may prove it even more. The Panthers are making waves this year, and it should continue this week. Carolina wins, and there will be no jambalaya for the Saints players back in the Big Easy. Just an irate coaching staff that won’t even recognize that they are at least 50% to blame for the failure of this team.

Yes, Brett Favre can be a playmaker. Yes, Ahman Green can run through and around defenses if he gets a few good blocks. No, the Packers cannot stop the opposition from moving the ball down the field, and scoring. Even the Bears scored against them this past Monday. Although some scribes want to refer to this as a “show down” between Seahawk HC Mike Holmgren and his old pupil Favre, it’s not that way. It’s a game, and the fact that the Packers beat the Bears doesn’t mean that HC Mike Sherman has developed an acumen for winning. He’s the same guy who combined with his OC Tom Rossley to allow Arizona an opportunity of winning their first game of the year. It’s a Seattle win, and a lot of people who follow the Packers are in for a let down because their win against the Bears did not mean they’d “turned the corner,”

Something has to give here. Neither team has won a game, so one of them gets off the snide. If Chargers RB LaDanian Tomlinson can work his magic, it’s going to be a long day for the Jags. By the way, it should be Byron Leftwich at QB from here on in, unless HC Jack Del Rio realizes the fact that it’s more than a QB problem that keeps this team from winning, and decides that Mark Brunell should be handed the loss. Don’t look for Jags WR Jimmy Smith to be an impact player in this game. He’s just coming back from suspension and it may take a week for him to get up to speed. I believe LT will force the Jags into play against the run, and Bolts QB Drew Brees will air it out enough to make the Jags look even worse. That’s the problem with being one of the worst teams in the league like Jacksonville. Even a team with no wins can come into town and kick your sorry (Ahem! We can’t say that here, can we?)!

Terrell Owens is whining that the 49ers aren’t getting him the ball. He whined all the way back to the Bay after Vikes WR Randy Moss schooled the 49ers D this past Sunday. HC Dennis Erickson did not fine TO for his mouth, but there’s a chasm developing between TO and QB Jeff Garcia. Let’s say it won’t help the team, and leave it go at that for now. If the 49ers don’t right their ship it could be a real problem later on. As for the Lions, they played admirably against the Broncos, despite losing 20-16. There are still way too many mistakes on both sides of the ball for them to threaten the 49ers. They just don’t have enough total talent to be a contender yet. You have to like their heart though. They are playing better each game. The 49ers win. Will TO be happy? Where will he play next year? As good as he is, I wonder how many teams will really want to take on the baggage he carries with him. As for the 49ers, this year could end up being a nightmare. It’s funny. They blamed everything on Mooch when he was their head coach. Now he’s gone, and wouldn’t it be funny if he came back to the Bay with the hapless Lions and beat his old team? I’m sticking with San Francisco.

Yes, the Eagles should win this game despite the fact that all the indicators would point in favor of the Skins. Last week’s Eagles victory offered something to build on, and rest assured, they will build on it, and since it’s home cooking, QB Donovan McNabb will be working his magic. I’m not overly confident that the Eagles can really beat the Redskins when they are on their game. It’s going to be lapses that cost the Redskins this game, not a lack of talent, or poor coaching. The Skins are getting better with each game, and even if they do lose this one, they will grow from it. You’ve got to like the Ramsey to Coles hook up in DC. It’s really turned into one of the best in the NFL. The only concern I see for the Eagles is their banged up secondary. If the Skins can get the ball to their receivers deep, it could turn this game around. Since we don’t know how many Eagles DBs will be out (2 or 3 possible), we might be wrong on this one, but we’re going to stick with the Eagles anyway, because HC Andy Reid will cook up some creative blitzes to keep Ramsey and the Skins honest.

So which Browns team will show up? I’m inclined to believe it will be the same one that played against the Bengals this past week. They lost, and deserved to lose. They were outplayed, and looked like a bunch of rookies trying out for a semi-pro team. Pittsburgh QB Tommy Maddox will hit his targets often enough, and Zero will combine with the Bus to rack up enough hard earned yards on the ground to offset anything the Browns throw against them. You might want to look at who’s at QB for the Browns this week. They’ve brought Couch back. I guess the coaches may be getting a clue that it’s the talent around the QB and the game plan that makes a difference. Defense is nice but hey, you still have to score once in a while, don’t you? The Browns have failed to do so because they’ve failed to recognize what help the team needs on offense to compete. I don’t believe the present coaching staff will ever recognize their needs, and we may be seeing changes in Cleveland after this year.

Forget it! The Colts will not go into the Bay and rack up points like they did this past week. The Bucs defense will be tenacious, and their hangover from their loss to Carolina isn’t something they’ll soon forget. HC John Gruden won’t allow that to happen again. This is going to end up being a major let down for Colts fans, because they may be lucky to score more than 10 points in this game, and that’s a lot less than the 55 they put on the board last Sunday. It’s Tony Dungey vs Jon Gruden no matter what anyone thinks, and Tony D would like nothing more than to pick up a “W” in this one. Sorry Tony! Not this time. Too much talent in Bucs country, and you’re going to have to leave town remembering that you were the architect of the defense that chewed your new team up on the field.

Baltimore would just as soon be playing, Houston has an extra week to build on their success, the Jets may as well take a trip to Acapulco, and the Rams will be flipping a coin to determine if they will have a game plan when they come back. It’s amazing how teams go into the bye headed in completely opposite directions, and needs. The funny part is, the one who needs the most help (Houston), is in a better position than those that should be using the time to adjust their plans, not try to come up with something that might make them a winner.

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