We first started publishing our  football betting money management strategy on these pages in the year 2000 - we call it "Grindeing". Since then we've witnessed a proliferation of money management strategies that say wagering on sports is like investing in the stock market - but don't go into detail. They compare their "winning"  strategies to stock market investing. As we state in this article, ours is modeled after Bob Brinker's Market Timer newsletter; I've followed Bob Brinker since 1995 on national radio and subscribe to his newsletter. Bettors are hearing the comparisons of sports wagering to stock market investing, but they still are being ill-advised to the basic tenants of proven stock market investment strategies. There are "professionals" out there who espouse "bet more when your on a hot streak...and less when your losing". Good grief! How in the world do you know when your "hot" and when your not - till it's too late?  The truth is these schlock's wouldn't know the difference between a Bear or a Bull market.  They probably think P.E. ratio is an algorithm that gives the number of gym classes they took in High School. The fact is a knowledgeable player will 1) research his picks, and 2) bet a consistent set percentage of his bankroll on each base play throughout the course of the season. With a minimal slide between a highly ranked play and a lower ranked play. 

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At Football Forecasters we adhere to a "Grinders" style of wagering.  It's a system I developed over several years of being a professional gambler. One of the best articles I can remember reading on money management with regards to wagering, was a piece I read while living in Nevada. It pertained to playing professional level Blackjack (did you know blackjack is the only game in Vegas that a knowledgeable player can win at consistently? It's a matter of statistics, probabilities and card counting). The concept fits very well for bankrolling your football action. It involves using a limited "scaling" concept used in blackjack card counting;  I  combine it with a stock market investment strategy I learned from Bob Brinker of MoneyTalk.  I call it "Grinding".  The concept is simple: 

• Define your bankroll before the season starts.  

• Bet a set percentage of your bankroll on every base play.

• Bump a play up only slightly, 20%,  when you feel you have a game you are particularly confident about.  

A Grinder has no expectations of hitting remotely close to 100% of his picks every week. Neither will he make a recklessly large play (over 10% of bankroll) on any given game to “catch up” or “play a sure-thing”. A grinder is looking to hit a simple majority over the long haul--along the lines of 54 - 66% winners (though we do strive for perfection!). 

• A professional will typically place between 4-5 percent of his bankroll on his base wager.

A professional plays a specific percentage of his overall bankroll consistently on each play week in and week out. For example: Whether your bankroll is $1,000 or $10,000 dollars you would place 4% of your overall bankroll ($40 for a 1K bankroll, $400 for a 10K bankroll) on each and every play you make. 

• Your "bankroll" is defined as the total amount you have socked away in a shoebox, that you can afford to lose and not change or modify your living style. 

Most people don't have this amount "set aside".  Another definition of a player's bankroll is the amount of money you could get your hands on in a pinch without borrowing from your mother.  If a Grinder with a $10,000 dollar bankroll made 200 plays during the season, and hit 58% winners, he would finish the season by nearly doubling his stake, being ahead +9,440 units. A 94% return in about 5 months, that’s damn good. The reality is that we strive for perfection, but settle for a realistic winning percentage, somewhere between 54 - 60%. 

• We don't condone the highly pervasive "unit system".

Many services use a variation of a 1 to 5 star unit system.  The basic premise is that you bump your play by a set percentage for every unit increase in the quality rating of the play. Many services advise betting 500% more on the highly ranked picks than they do on the lower ranked picks. Some service advise a 20% scale between every unit - so that the highly ranked pick is 100% more than the lowest ranked pick. This doesn't make mathematical sense - if anyone's been using a variation of this system successfully - please write me, or post it on the message board. But, I'm here to tell you it's a bullshit system over the long haul.

A professional keeps track of his wagers and knows his season winning percentage at any given time. He knows that over the course of the season he will be profitable by picking winners between 54 and 60% of the time. Any bet you place you theoretically expect to win. Over the long haul there will be about a 20% difference in any unit ranking systems lowest ranked plays winning percentage, and the highest ranked plays winning percentage over the course of 100 play selections. Let me say that again:

• Over the long haul there will be about a 20% difference in any unit ranking systems lowest ranked plays (1 star) winning percentage, and the highest ranked (5 star) plays winning percentage.

Ask a professional stock broker if he would double his investment if he knew the probability that he picked a winning stock was automatically 20% higher. Most of them would tell you "no".  So why wager more than 20% more of your base wager on a "5 star" play if the majority of your roll over the course of a season is going to be on 3 & 4 star plays - how is that comparable to stock market investing?  The truth is a prudent professional stock broker NEVER places more than 10% of a clients portfolio on any one stock. The counter argument is that the top rated "5 star" play theoretically has a better chance of winning. But the reality is that most services don't give out more than a handful of "5 star" plays a season.  It isn't worth the financial stability of your bankroll to place a disproportionate portion of your bankroll at risk on any one event at any point of the season. 

Here's another common characteristic of many unit ranking systems. When the top rated "5 star" play loses in consecutive weeks - there is eventually a "6-star" or a "10-star" play with a commensurate increase in action! Yes we have seen this happen. Furthermore...

• We don't subscribe to the practice of "scaling back" when you're in the throes of a losing streak, or "doubling up when your hot"

You'll find your hot streak is over just when start bumping up your plays. If anything, when your confidence is shot and you consider yourself in a cold spell - don't wager. Take a week off. If you can't take a week off then you've got serious problems.  Logic dictates you cannot predict when you will have a hot week, or a cold week; so win lose or draw... 

• ...A professional plays the same amounts on each base play week in and week out.

Sound financial discipline will keep you in the game when  you hit those inevitable rough times. No matter how much a play appeals to us we rarely double up on a play, in fact we rarely place more than 6% of a bankroll on a single play (including a limited amount of overlapping parlay action).  There is no such thing as a "lock" (many a square has gotten in trouble because of playing a lock). 

It is also folly to make a bet solely to have "action" on a game.  If you feel compelled to do this (an example is if you're going to watch the game on TV, say Monday night...) limit your action to 1% of your bankroll. Know the difference between "entertainment action", and a calculated and researched investment wager.

Your base wager should be an amount you are "comfortable losing". Play within your comfort zone. If you've been a dollar player for years and are thinking about stepping up, a large step up in action could impact your judgment. The glitz, the action, the prospect of losing, the allure of hitting a big return, could make for unstable decision making. Remember that even the sharpies lose 40-46% of the time!  

• Having a predefined bankroll is the best way to maintain emotional and mental clarity over the course of the roller coaster ride of the betting season. 

Money management prowess is fundamental to being a winning player - just as the ability to stop the run in the red zone is fundamental to a winning football program.

I am often asked about parlay tickets. The math says most of them are a losing proposition. 

• The professionals limit their income action to straight up wagers. 

To be truthful, I like playing a few parlay tickets myself. However, I limit my overall weekly parlay action to a maximum of 3% of my bankroll, or no more than the amount of 1 base wager. There are good parlay tickets, and losing parlay tickets. Before you play tickets, learn about them. Understand the math, the payout ratios, the subtle differences between good tickets, and sucker tickets. The discussion of parlay tickets is another subject altogether....

There are variations of being a Grinder, I've outlaid what's worked for me, derived through reading handicapping books,  online gambling articles,  and money management techniques used in playing blackjack and actual stock market investing (I manage my own retirement portfolio).  I used to be a losing (albeit many years ago), or at best a break even bettor.  I would scratch my head trying to figure out how I picked 60% of the games correctly and wind up loser on the bottom line.  The reason is I used to chase bad days with double plays.  

• Have the discipline to consistently place the same percentage on your play’s each and every week.  

The House loves to see a player double up after a bad week... because before that weekends  kick-off even happens - they've already won.  I am convinced that most people can pick winners. However the vast majority of winning pickers wind up losing over the course of the season. The key to long term success is money management strategy. 

Good Luck,

Kurt Schumacher

Editor, Football Forecasters

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