New England Patriots NFL team report:

2003 team news reports index page. Football Forecasters picks the division contenders and total wins for each NFL team. This report is not your typical ESPN NFL team report yada yada.

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New England Patriots

2003 Patriots NFL Team Report                             

 Editor: Football Forecasters

Our 2003 AFC East forecast and New England Patriots team report concludes that this is the most balanced division in the NFL from top to bottom; with the overall team talent level separated by only the hair on a gnats ass....

Overview:  

We were a bit surprised by the results of our conservative forecasting model for the AFC East division - ever team is projected to win 9 games!

• New England:  9+ (a positive probability factor to win 10 games than only 8)

• New York Jets: 9 wins even

• Miami Dolphins: 9 wins even

• Buffalo Bills: 9- (a negative probability factor, more likely to win 8 games than 10)

We were thinking the Dolphins would be the odds on favorite to win the division. They are in Las Vegas, but according to our work-ups New England has the easier schedule and match-up advantages. The Jets coming in at 9 wins also was a bit of a surprise to us considering the significant free agent losses they experienced in the off-season. We double checked the data, and took a hard look at the subtle nuances of scheduling influences and unit to unit fundamental match-ups... we concluded that this is the most balanced division in football, and essentially any team could be on top of the division in December.  However...

• Our pick is the New England Patriots are the money play to win the AFC East. 

Overview:  

One area where the Patriots have a definitive edge on the rest of the AFC East is coaching. The Patriot players are going into the fourth season wherein they have been with the same Head Coach and assistant coaches. In addition this season HC Belichick has brought in a QB coach (John Hufnagel) to relieve himself of some responsibilities and help young QB Tom Brady. 

In our view the Patriots had the best draft of any team in the AFC East. They should get immediate help in the form of depth from several of their acquisitions.

Defense:

It's well documented that last season the Patriots ranked 31st in overall run defense, allowing 4.7 RYG.  But consider that last year the Pats had 8 games against 6 of the leagues top rated running backs:

• No. 1 - Ricky Williams (twice)

• No. 2 - Priest Holmes

• No. 3 - LaDainian Tomlinson

• No. 4 - Clinton Portis

• No. 6 - Travis Henry (twice)

• No. 7 - Ahman Green

This top 10 list excludes formidable running backs Michael Bennett, Eddie George, and Curtis Martin (not among top 10, but in upper half of NFL statistically). 

The Patriots do not face quite as strong a cast of running backs this season, but the strength of opposing rushing offenses will still be quite formidable. To shore up the run defense Belichick is switching to a 3-4 defensive alignment, and has brought in a projected stud at OLB in this scheme, Rosevelt Colvin.

• We project the patriots overall rush defense to improve by about 10 spots, to around No. 20 overall. However, more importantly we project the RYC statistic of 4.7 to be improved significantly, into the respectable 4.0 area.

The Patriots secondary was solid overall last season and we expect them to field a better than average secondary again in 2003. They have two of the leagues premier DBs in CB Ty Law and S Lawyer Milloy. The supporting cast in the secondary is better than average playing in Belichicks cover 2 scheme.

Offense:

On offense the Patriots appear set at QB with Tom Brady. The receiving unit looks solid but not spectacular. However, we do like the potential of TE Daniel Graham. In last years draft Seattle HC Mike Holmgren screwed up (in our opinion) by not grabbing this guy when he had the chance. Belichick swooped in and picked him with his first pick of round one. We watched Graham in College and feel he is close in ability to Giants TE Jeremy Shockey. 

• We predict 2nd year TE Daniel Graham will be the wild card in the Patriots 2003 offense. As goes Graham, so goes the Patriots.

The receiving unit is below average overall. The Patriots would love to see Deion Branch or speedy Bethel Johnson establish themselves as a bona fide NFL starter opposite reliable Troy Brown. Daniel Graham's emergence as a playmaker would be a great shot in the arm to the Patriots passing offense.

The Patriots rush attack ranked 28th overall in the NFL last year. Antowain Smith reported to camp out of shape and never seemed to get into a groove. This year Smith is reportedly in better shape, but still not up to Belichicks standards. 

The offensive line is average and not strong enough to overcome the liability of a below average running back. After Smith nobody on the Patriots RB roster concerns opposing offenses. In fact if nobody else steps up, and Smith struggles again this season, the Patriots running game could jeopardize the Patriots playoff hopes. If Smith comes to play the Patriots could be a formidable foe on offense.

• Running back may be the Achilles heel of the Patriots offense.

The Patriots offensive line concerns us a bit. With the exception of Damien Woody the Patriots have not had a lot of success drafting quality players on the offensive line. However, Woody is a pretty good center and the tackles have potential to be better than average. Recent second round picks LT Matt Light (starter) and G Adrian Klemm have not been dominant performers. The strength of the line is pass protection, but there is significant room for improvement in opening running lanes. This is a young unit overall and they should continue to jell.

Summary:

Canbet Odds to win the AFC East as of this writing:

• Miami Dolphins +140

• New York Jets +205

• New England +270

• Buffalo Bills +400

All things considered we rate the Patriots as the best play to make to win the wide open AFC East division crown. 

Have a handicapping comment?  Write to Football Forecasters

Our season projection win/loss analysis takes into account:

• Last years unit by unit team statistical analysis

• What steps have been taken to improve areas of need

• Schedule - opposition strengths, and when you play key opponents. With particular emphasis on division match-ups.

• Owner, GM, head coach, coordinators, and position coaching changes. With particular emphasis on system continuity.

• Projected fundamental unit to unit match-up advantages that can be exploited by a competent game plan - A teams ability to control the flow of a game

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