Saturday Morning Draft Weekend Update Scheduled.... We decided to leave our late  draft version up - The Jets targeted player has been widely published - so we'll discuss who the Bears are probably targeting....

4/26/03 draft day update:  The Jets move really shook things up - it was sweet - and the price was the proverbial win/win for both teams. Which given the circumstances of who was ahead and behind them - made the cost of trading up to leapfrog them very pricey.  We like the Bears to grab the best available DT with their 13 pick, which could be William Joseph- or Marcus Trufant if he's still available - if they go CB first they'll address DT with the 22nd pick - and target Chris Simms with their 2nd round choice.. A very nice trade for both teams.  <end update>

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Allen and I had a harder time reaching a decisions on our mock draft than we typically do determining a play that we'd put money on.... I have new found respect for the people who do this for a living. To do it right takes a significant amount of time - we found that a nip of Jim Beam will greatly reduce the stress of pulling the trigger on a selection. And it's an ongoing process - one trade can mangle your draft...for instance St Louis has acquired Kyle Turley from the Saints (for a 2nd round pick), which means it's unlikely they'll be taking Kwame Harris.... time for another damn revision....

We assigned each team a primary position need on a scale of 1-10. For example we gave Cincinnati a QB need ranking of 8.5, and Detroit a WR need ranking of 9 (CB need ranking of 8), Houston a need ranking of 9 at RB, and so forth. We then used player scouting report grades, team drafting styles, & personal observations of players we observed during the regular NCAA season - to project our mock draft. We subtracted the need ranking from the player ranking. From this we determined that Minnesota, Dallas, Houston, Chicago, & Cincinnati were the most likely teams to trade down (in that order). The most probable teams that could trade up our New Orleans, New England & the Jets, however these squads can get quality players that fill a need by standing pat. The teams that will most likely need to trade up to get their man are Tennessee and Indianapolis.  The teams sitting in the catbird seats are Seattle & Minnesota; They should be playoff teams this year and should get contributing talent with their picks. The team we have the most difficult time projecting a pick for - Buffalo. This team has made  excellent FA additions - and should be able to draft the best available athlete. Here is a nice little article on drafting strategies  from the Great Blue North Draft Report.

Update: With the Saints acquiring safety Tebucky Jones from the Pats for a 2nd rounder - they have become strong candidates to trade up - look for them to try and acquire one of the blue chip CB's - either Terrance Newman or Marcus Trufant, or a pass rushing DE.  A trade with Minnesota is very workable....  Prediction - McGahee will not be drafted in round one, look for him to go in round two - guys just don't fully recover from torn ACL's in one year - end of report. The highest we have him going is he might go to Houston with their pick at the top of the 2nd round.  Biggest Surprise of our mock work-up... we don't have Larry Johnson going in the first round, although we think he's the guy we mention most often in our "possible's" picks. This guy will be a player in the NFL.... Another RB who we think will could have an impact with the right team is Onterrio Smith out of Oregon.

Update 4/23/03  We think there will be 3 QB's taken in the first 10 picks. If Leftwich or Boller is still available when Baltimore comes up - we don't see them passing on a potential franchise QB.  Newman may have surpassed Suggs in draft grading....  We don't see Houston taking Andre Johnson with the third pick, although we like Andre's potential very very much, the pick just doesn't mesh with what Houston is trying to put together long term - we still think the Texans will trade down. Another team that is bending over backwards to trade down is the Vikings... perhaps because of last years troubles signing their 1st round pick... someone should accommodate them.

Most under-rated consensus 1st round pick: Troy Polamalu: This guy's gonna be a playmaker. Of course if he ends up in Cincinnati all bets are off.

Most over-rated consensus 1st round pick: Kelly Washington:  Somebody's going to bite on him because of his extraordinary athleticism, speed, and potential.  But - fused vertebrae's in his neck - I don't care how good his workouts are... I wouldn't take him in the first round... It just takes a couple years to learn the nuances of this position... and Washington is already a couple years older than the majority of this draft class.

Update 4/24/03  Lots of discussion and theories regarding McGahee and his recent "excellent" workout bouncing him back into the 1st round - we still don't think he'll go that high... But - if he did the most likely teams to take a flyer on him would be the Eagles or the Raiders - We still think Larry Johnson goes before McGahee - and that LJ goes in round 1... somewhere.

Palmer has already signed with Cincinnati? Looks like another sub .500 year for the Bengals - Why tip your hand so soon?

Keep in mind that NFL Drafting strategy and gamesmanship is as intricate as game planning during the playoffs - there are a lot of rumors floating out there specifically designed to keep a potential adversary from trading up and grabbing the player a team covets.  Players football instincts haven't suddenly improved in the past week. At this time of year game film can be more important than recent workouts - which are often professionally enhanced track meets.  Keep an eye on a team free agent signings/losses - they can have significant impact on a team's drafting strategy.

"Mock Draft compiled with a little help from our good friend Jim Beam"

    V.2003.3    Last Update:  04/26/03

Selection

Comments

QB

DT

OLB

Carson Palmer  QB  

Carson will go #1. We're just not exactly sure by whom. In Cincy he'll have a chance to hold a clipboard for the first half of the season. Chicago, Arizona & Dallas is our best bet to swap places with Cincinnati, in any case the guy who we think will go number uno is Carson Palmer. 

If we were running the show we'd try and trade down a few spots and acquire extra selections in the 1st round; Then grab a developmental QB such as Ragone or Simms at the top of the 2nd round. If history repeats itself - nothing would screw up Carson's career quicker than being drafted by the Bengal's and asked to start right away.

WR

CB

Charles Rodgers  WR 

RB

OT

WR

QB

DL

OLB

Terrell Suggs  DE

Note - if the Bears do take a QB here, such as Leftwich (and we're not saying they don't need one - cause Stewart's not the answer), Dick Jauron's day's in windy city are numbered....

DE

CB

RB

QB

Dallas may opt to trade down to fulfill multiple needs - like Houston they could be looking at picking up an extra 1st round pick - to get Larry Johnson later in the draft - and one of the highly rated DT's. 

QB

WR

DE

DL

DB

DE

WR

QB

OT

WR

QB

OT

11

DT

ILB

DT

12

OLB

DT

DT

WR

The Jets also need help at guard - but we think they can get a good one, such as Montrae Holland, in the 2nd round. 

DT

WR

OT

We think the Patriots are a likely team to package some picks and move up - targeting Terrell Suggs. If they stay put, a playmaking DT is the first priority.

S

DT

OLB

DE

WR

LB

OT

OLB

DB

DE

CB

CB

OLB

G

DL

WR

OT

They could easily opt for a DE such as Haynes, or at DT... in fact now that I think about it....

DB

OLB

DL

Woolfolk is getting a bad rap as a pure cover corner recently - but we think he'd work with Dungy's coaching in his cover two scheme.

DT

ILB

DT

WR

The Niners love to throw, the Niners might be thin at WR next year and this draft is deep in receivers... if one of the top guys slip they may opt to go that route with their 1st pick. But we think they'll go DT first... and look for a developmental WR prospect such as Tyrone Calico in the 2nd.

DB

TE

WR

CB

TE

If they are unable to re-sign over-rated C Gennaro DiNapoli - look for them to select Jeff Faine over Witten.

DL

LB

QB

They're also desperate for help on the O-line... if one of the top 3 OL slips he won't get past the pack.

DE

LB

DE

WR

OLB

Prediction: Raiders will attempt a trade involving Robbins if Faine is available at this spot.

Starting FS Rod Woodson will retire next year - If Polamalu somehow slips this far - we don't think he'll make it to the 2nd round.