NFL Picks & College Pick's by Football Forecasters

Update 10/26/02 Difference between a tout and a handicapper An article with very good points to make regarding questionable services - and how to recognize them. Beware of services that use a "monitoring service" to substantiate their claims. Legitimate claims of a high winning percentage will always be transparent to the visitors of an honest enterprise; For pay-for-play sites, this is accomplished by simply releasing the service play after the ball is kicked-off. If a service gives an excuse why they cannot release their plays after kick off... run baby. In my opinion most "monitoring" services have an "incestual relationship" with one or more of the services they claim to be monitoring.

Update 10/22/02 For statistical purposes we put last Sundays KC game down as a push. Personally we liked it on the ML (and almost got it). But for record keeping we took the FG, and according to several of you, you found a better number than that.

Ten College picks this week....who the hell does 10 key picks for Saturday and wins like we do? Nobody. But lest I get to full of myself, I'm going to visit our picks page from two weeks ago.... :)

Update 10/21/02 Take an Early Look at games where the line may move soon (cause we just hit em :) Texas A&M, SDSU, Tennessee

MISSION STATEMENT: We give our NFL football picks against the Vegas line, and College football picks against Vegas odds every week. Be aware that this is a dynamic site, we actively upgrade/downgrade the selections through out the week. Check in by the middle of the week for a listing of games we have selected, AND be sure to check in before game time, as very often one or both of us will zone in on a play the day before kick-off. We'll make 1-15 combined College and Pro football picks a week. We do not promise to pick 100% winners. However, historically we will pick a majority of winners over the course of the year. Expectations are too pick a simple majority, a 54-66% winning ratio is a realistic goal. You will serve as our sports monitor, all of our picks will be stored on a weekly basis in the "Past Picks" link at the bottom of this page. A free Message Board is provided primarily to assure you of our credibility (or to vent if you feel the need). If you have a question about a pick result, post it on the board (or e-mail us). This page is a no-nonsense banner free site. We don't share or sell e-mail lists. We don't recommend a service or affiliate with casinos -- it's just you and us baby.

Two seasons ago I received an e-mail saying he "needed a winner", asking on a scale of 1-10 "how strong" our A+ play was this week. I replied that it's wrong about 30% of the time--so it must be a "7". Unfortunately that weeks play was in the 30% category. Folks there's no such thing as a lock--if you need one then you're in the wrong place and playing the wrong game. I strongly recommend a short read on Money Management linked via "Vegas Tips" at the bottom of this page.

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NFL & NCAA Opinions Free, courtesy of Footballforecasters. Strictly for entertainment and discussion purposes only :)

Team	W/L	comments
@Colorado St	W	We really like the Rams this Thursday. BYU looked good early in the season but they haven't been the same since. The Rams will be able to move the ball at will. Rams are slightly better statistically in every key offensive and defensive category, and have played the tougher schedule by far. Sapp will have a big day running on a Cougar front that has been weak stopping the run. BYU is playing their 5th of 6 on the road, and this one is a short week coming off a humiliating homecoming loss to another running team, UNLV. The scorecast model shows BYU covering, however the scorecast is only a reference tool. If computers could "pick" winners, Vegas would already be doing it, and the human element would be diminished. If we could only play one game this week, this would be it. A+ Play
@Bowling Green	L	*Al's Pounder* The Falcons have been laying the wood on opponents this year. They have the ability to score in bunches. Al says BG will score 50 something while the Cardinals might get 20. BG enjoys a major unit to unit advantage with a rush attack that is averaging 5.6 ypc and 251 ypg, going against a defense giving up 4.7 ypc and 177 ypg. This one could get uugggly. Falcons by 5 td's. A Play
@Idaho (+)	W	We see an upset. Both teams have played a tough schedule and neither has done well against upper echelon competition. Idaho and MTS scored 128 points in this contest last year. This time the game is in Idaho and the Vandals are off a bye. With Lindgren throwing they have been able to move the ball through the air against everybody. On the other side MTS is playing their 3rd of 4 on the road. If the Vandals do fall behind they have the kind of attack that can put them right back in the game. We like the Vandals to win out right and are getting points. A Play

Team	W/L	comments
@Texas A&M	L	What do we need to say about this matchup? Nebraska is living on it's reputation, things are not going well in Lincoln and we're going to capitalize on it till the oddsmakers catch up to us. Frank Solich just hasn't brought in the athletes that Nebraska is used to having. The Aggies have a very good defense, especially against the run, that will frustrate the only weapon the Huskers have. A&M by 21
@Tulane	W	Man this one could get ugly too. Tulane will be throwing at a secondary that is giving up 9.4 ypp and 196 ypg. Navy's run defense is giving up 5 ypc and 252 ypg. That's terrible news going against a team on the road that likes to light it up. SOW and situation edge to the Green Wave. B+ Play
Iowa (+)	W	Michigan really hasn't been playing that well. They were lucky to get the W at Purdue, getting a touchdown call (from infamous big ten officials) where replays show the receiver was out of bounds. Iowa has a stifling run defense, holding opponents to 2 ypc! While they have been able to grind it out on the ground at 5.3 ypc and 220 ypg. This is just the type of unit to unit strengths we like to see when taking a road dog.
@Kentucky(+)	L	Our scorecasting model has the Wildcats winning this game outright. There are no significant unit to unit advantages to either side. The Dawgs do have a superior defense as a whole, on the other hand Georgia will be missing 3 starters on the offensive side of the ball. Kentucky has been playing great as a dog and we think this one will be competitive. Since the scorecasting model predicts the outright upset by a td, we're going to jump on the points.
Air Force	L	Falcons option should be tough for Cowboys to handle. We considered this as a A play but not sure how the Flyboys will react to their first loss. They have the tools to embarrass Wyoming.
@San Jose St (+)	L	No unit to unit edges here for the Spartans to exploit. The Broncos are superior at every unit match-up. However this is only the Spartans 2nd home game of the year, and the third road game on grass this season for the Bronco's, a situation where they have not yet covered the spread this year. We think both teams will be able to score, however SJS will stay within the large number, we're going to wait on this till kickoff, because we think it mqy go to 17, where we're going to bite hard.
@San Diego St	W	Despite winning last week the Rebels are giving up more points than their scoring. We don't see them getting it together against a team that is really playing inspired ball. The Aztecs are great at airing it out - to the tune of 7.8 ypp and 351 ypg. They have the ability to score quickly in the event they fall behind. Cannot say the same for UNLV. SDSU should win comfortably and we don't mind laying the small number.
@Arizona St	W	There could be a lot of points put up in this one. Both teams have very good pass attacks, but the Sun Devils are well balanced, as they run for over 100 ypg and pass for 300 ypg. The Huskies are only averaging 2.7 ypc and 88 ypg on the ground - not good numbers for a team playing on the road. The 'Devils have a stifling run Dee and a better than average pass defense. We see them winning by no less than 10.

	W/L	Comments
@Jacksonville	L	Jacksonville is a different team with Brunell in the lineup, and he returns this week. This one is a key division contest for Jacksonville, who are thinking about the playoffs. They will be focused coming off consecutive losses (w/o Brunell). Fred Taylor is running well, as the Jags are averaging 141 ryg at 4.6 ypc, while the Texans are giving up 122 ryg at 4.3 ypc, a significant strength on weakness (SOW) advantage to the Jags. Houston is playing 1st back to back roadie this year. The Texans have given up 40 sacks in just 6 games! When they do fall behind they simply do not have the pass attack to catch up. Our scorecast model, which factors in home and away tendencies, has the Jags winning by 13; With major SOW and situational advantages favoring the Jags, we think this one has the potential to be a very dominating victory for Jacksonville. Jags by 17 A Play

Team	W/L	Comments
@Washington (+)	W	Late Update Washington enjoys some match-up advantages over Indianapolis. The Redskins have a talented and deep secondary; They also have quick linebackers which should help against EJ receiving out of the back field. We think the Skins will be able to establish control on the ground by going straight ahead with their strong O-line, going against a smallish but quick Colt defensive line.
Atlanta (+)	W	New Orleans off big emotional win against San Fran and is now rated #1 in most power polls. That doesn't bode well for the Saints, as teams have not been holding that honor for consecutive weeks.... Atlanta has a long history of playing the Saints tough in New Orleans. Falcons have a solid defense with a good secondary, and Reeves is a prime time coach. We think this one will be very competitive, it should be decided by a field goal.
Tampa Bay	L	Poor Carolina. Panthers, who were playing well, just are not the same without starting QB Rodney Peete (lost for season). On the other hand the Buc's, off a non-division loss, still have playoff aspirations. The Buc's will keep Carolina to single digits on the scoreboard - and it doesn't matter which Johnson starts at QB for Tampa. We're being asked to lay an even TD, but we'll bite anyway.

ALSO LIKES: Philadelphia, NYJ, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England

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2002 Year To Date Statistical record (ATS)

2002	WON	LOST	PCT%
A+ Play	5	2	71%
A Plays	10	10	50%
B Plays	55	33	63%
Total	70	45	61%