2001 Archives wk8
A plays hit 2 out of 5 for 40% , B plays hit 4 for 9 for 44%, Overall we hit 6 winners, 8 losers for 43%
Update 10/28/01: It's Sunday night and we have hit two plays early for next Saturday: Air Force giving 12.5 and Kent plus the two TD's. We hit these plays early and are posting them tonight because we feel they will move before our next update. We'll update our overall weekly results after the results of tomorrow's Monday Night contest. Our previous week's picks (and last years) can be found linked at the bottom of the page.
Update 10/29/01: We thought the Monday Night NFL game could get ugly, and it did. For the week 63% is not a bad haul for 16 selections but the kicker was hitting the four teamer on our A play parlay. This marks the 3rd weekend we have gone 100% on our A plays since the season started (weeks 2, 6 & 7). We're on ECU tomorrow as a "B" rated play. As you've probably noticed we don't send all our B selections to the Sports Eye monitor, as there are just too many that we post through out the week, but we do send in all our A plays. Nice to hear from you via your congratulatory e-mails and it feels damn good knowing that we've assisted a few folks with some success. I was reading some gaming articles at The Daily Spread (a website with a link at the bottom of this page) and I thought some of you would find this piece by Jimmy Vaccaro informative. There are many such articles at TDS worth reading:
Jimmy Vaccaro on Betting The Early Line & Line Moves
A classic example of capturing early line value is illustrated by one of our A play's this week (Wake Forest). WF opened as an 8 and a half point dog and was bet down to 7 at most places by kick-off. They lost by exactly seven. The impact of line value is precisely why we make every effort to get our plays in early and post the bulk of them no later than Wednesday morning (often by Tuesday evening).
Good luck, Peace, and God Bless the USA
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Year To Date Statistical Record |
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| 2001 | WON | LOST | PCT% |
| A+ Play | 6 | 5 | 55% |
| A Plays | 15 | 11 | 58% |
| B Plays | 58 | 51 | 53% |
| Totals | 79 | 67 | 54% |
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Peace & Prosperity, Kurt & Al
College Football Pick's 11/03/01 "A" rated plays
| Team | W/L | comments |
| New Mexico vs SDSU | W | Posted 10/29/01 New Mexico does two things well; they can run the ball and stop the run. We cashed in on the Lobos last week against Air Force and are going with them again as our A+ play of the week. This time they're on the road against an Aztec squad that is a bit dispirited and near the bottom of the conference standings in rushing defense. A basic strength against weakness advantage to the Lobos. SDSU's strong point is their rush attack with the nation's leading division 1 rusher Larry Ned; However the Lobos have one of the better run stopping units in the Mountain West. New Mexico by 14 |
| @S. Florida vs Houston | W | Florida will be joining the Conference
USA in 2003. This is their first opportunity hosting a future conference
foe. SF has been playing good ball this season with an upset road win at
Pittsburgh and respectable games against N Illinois and Memphis. Winless
Houston has a decent pass attack but is porous across the board on
defense. We're looking for SF to be highly motivated and to roll by 20 this
Saturday. A Play
Update 11/3/01 The weather forecast for Southern Florida for Saturday morning is 80% humidity, 60% chance of rain, 20-40 mph winds, with weather conditions deteriorating into the afternoon. Both teams primarily move the ball with effective passing offenses, however SF has a slight edge in rushing offense with a 3.7 ypg average and 113 total rypg, while Houston comes in at 3.5 rypg and 102 total rypg. The real edge SF has is in rushing defense: SF only allows 3.3 ypc while the Cougars allow 4.9 ypc. The Bulls have three ball carriers averaging over 4 ypc. With the Hurricane over Cuba the chances of this being played in windy raining conditions are good--We see this as a significant advantage to the home team South Florida. |
| ASU(+) vs Oregon | L | 11/2/01 Upgraded from B Play We really had to work through the stats on this one as both teams statistics are skewed. ASU played a soft non-conference schedule which led to some padded numbers. While the Ducks 460 yard rushing game against WSU was a one time situational anomaly. Oregon has yet to cover a game at home this year. We determined that the scrappy Sun Devils have a decent run defense (giving up 3.1 ypg) and a well balanced offense with a potent pass attack. ASU should be able to stay with the Ducks Tit for Quack. We're taking the generous points, cha-ching. A Play |
B rated plays:
| Team | W/L | comments |
| ECU @ TCU | W | Tuesday The Pirates playing better overall ball and actually have a better defense than the Frogs. TCU's quality of play seems to have fallen off since the start of the season |
| CSU (+) vs BYU | L | Thursday We cashed in on BYU the last two weeks against a tired Air Force team and and a poorly performing Aztec squad. The cougars rolled in those contests and now we feel the line is very fat for an improving Ram team. |
| @Kent (+) vs Marshall | L | Posted 10/28/01 We hit Kent early when they were getting two TD's, there is a decent possibility this will be upgraded to an A play selection. Update: We hit this one Sunday night and posted it right away. It has since dropped a bit but we still feel there is value to plus 10. B+ play |
| @Air Force vs Army | NP | Posted 10/28/01 / Downgraded 11/1/01--No Play: We still like the Falcons in this contest, we were on it early and the number has gone from 12 to 13. However we feel there is little line value here and given the nature of both run oriented offenses Army may hang around. I'm going to let the early money ride but our opinion here is NO PLAY |
| @Iowa St (+) vs K-State | L | The Cyclones are tough at home but the early money came in on K-State. We were looking hard at ISU beforehand and when the line went to a TD we decided to buy in. KSU is in a must win situation to be bowl eligible, however there is a reason they're in a must win--they're an average squad this year and now their visiting a Cyclone team that will be in a foul mood after going to Texas A&M last week and almost pulling the SU win. |
| @Pittsburgh (+) vs V. Tech | W | Another contest where the early money came in on VT. We like the Panthers here to put together their best game of the season--they have nothing to lose. The number is high and we feel Pitt will be motivated as this is essentially their game of the year. We like Pitt to keep it close. |
| @Central Florida vs Akron | W | 11/2/01 Update! A line was finally posted on this contest: The Zips are banged up. They haven't generated much offense on the road this year and the Knights of UCF have a very stingy defense. Akron gives up 8.9 yards per pass attempt while the Knights are clipping along at 8 yppa; a basic match-up advantage to the Knights. Akron does rush for 4 ypc but UCF has a very tight rush defense only giving up 3.2 ypc. We'll lay the home points and look for the Knights to roll--despite the Hurricane watch. |
ALSO LIKES: Florida Temple Mississippi State MTS Alabama Troy State Tennessee Florida State N'western Wake Forest Rutgers Connecticut Texas Tech SMU Minnesota Louisville Ole Miss
NFL Picks 11/4/01 "A" rated play
| W/L | Comments | |
| @Green Bay vs Tampa | L | 11/2/01 The Pack have already lost two division games, once to the Bucs. They are in a nice spot here coming off a bye and facing the preseason division favorite on their home field. Farve is in Pro Bowl form and will be the difference here. Pack by 13 A Play |
| @NYG vs Dallas | L | Emmitt Smith may be out for this one. The Giants have lost two straight. We like New York to get back on track in a big way against a Dallas team that may get shut out in this spot. NY by 17 A Play |
B rated plays:
| Team | W/L | Comments |
| Jacksonville(+) vs Tennessee | L | 11/2/01 The Jaguars worst fears have manifested themselves--they have suffered numerous injuries to key personnel and likely won't make the playoffs. However they still have a solid defense and a very good pass attack Once the mainstay of the Tennessee team the defense has all but disappeared--especially pass defense. |
| @Arizona(+) vs Philly | L | 11/2/01 Philly is a terrible road favorite. They have trouble moving the ball and shouldn't be favored on the road by more than a FG. We'll take the generous home points in this division game. |
| Cleveland (+) vs Chicago | W | 10/29/01 Cleveland has the makings of a championship caliber defense. Couch has responded well to the simplified offense and his new quarterback coach. They should go toe to toe with the Bears. Chicago QB Jim Miller is hurt and Mathews gets the start. Their leading receiver, Robinson, is also out. We've been on the Bears several times this year but feel they may struggle in this spot under Mathews. |
ALSO LIKES: Washington Indianapolis Miami Oakland
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