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|Football Forecasters presents free NFL picks & football commentary for our 14th straight NFL season. Welcome to the 2013 NFL football season for the College football and office pool NFL football picks and opinions presented weekly on this site. We publish preseason NFL picks, totals picks, and NFL division previews based on fundamental team strengths and schedule match-ups. We are INDEPENDANT College and NFL football enthusiasts, using basic unit-on-unit analysis to make logical weekly football picks against Vegas odds. We are NOT football picks resellers or "consensus" opinion makers. We do not have referral relationships with Sportsbooks, nor do we accept advertising, or betting money. Our FREE office pool NFL picks are superior to most handicapping services - be sure to check out Dale's championship weekly NFL office pool picks in his weekly football blog!|
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NFL Football Picks
9/8/13 NFL Picks Week 1
Carolina (ML)(+) - Panthers should be in this one to the end. Seattle has a great D but hasn't faired as well on the road. The offense has been average and they may struggle to punch it into the endzone. Call it a dogfight and don't be surprised if Carolina pulls the home upset. Panthers by 1
Cincinnati (ML)(+) - Great defensive line going against what might be a lower end Chicago O line. This one just reeks of an upset. Take the team with up and coming continuity on both sides of the ball. Bengals by 3.
Detroit - Lions simply have superior talent everywhere. And should be highly motivated to start things right within their division. Lay the points and we'll call Detroit to win by 7.
ALSO LIKES NFL PICKS: Philadelphia, Green Bay
12/30/12 NFL Picks Week 17
PITTSBURG - - Steelers come in out of the playoffs and on a month long losing skid. But watch them against depleted Cleveland - they'll play like this is their Super Bowl. Lay the 10.
MINNESOTA (ML)(+) - - Minnesota in their final home stand would like nothing more than to get AP the NFL season rushing record and knock off the division champs. They have enough weapons on offense to give the Pack trouble, and Green Bay is not the ball control juggernaut they've been the past couple years. Take the FG.
NFL ALSO LIKE PICK: KC (+)
12/23/12 NFL Picks Week 16
SEATTLE - W - San Francisco traveling coast to coast, coming into Seattle off a short practice week. Seahawks have the ground and pound running game to counter attack San Frans pass rush. Seahawks are very good at all phases of defense, and very good on special teams. Ought to be a great game to watch, we think Seattle comes out on top.
NFL ALSO LIKES: NY Giants, Cincinnati (+)(ML)
12/16/12 NFL Picks Week 15
ST. LOUIS - L - As much a play against the Vikings limited offense as a play on the Rams underrated scheming defense. Minnesota is one dimensional on offense, and while AP will do damage, he doesn't have the counter threat at QB to keep the Rams from stacking the line. Rams by 7.
NEW ENGLAND - L - A nice situational play on the Patriots, you can bet the Patriots defensive coaches watched the Rams defensive scheme vs the Niners offense - and San Fran is traveling coast to coast with a key division match-up next week. Pats by 7.
OVER SAN DIEGO/CAROLINA - L - Neither team has established anything defensively, while both have the ability to score big at any time - a recipe for a high scoring affair.
NFL ALSO LIKES: Jacksonville (+), Indy (+), Cleveland (+)
12/9/12 NFL Picks Week 14
BALTIMORE (ML)(+) - L - Situation and fundamentals are solid for this match-up. Raven defense is still very good, they match up well to the Skins, they will take away Garcon and force RG3 to progress through his reads - a weakness that has been masked by his run/option ability. Washington is playing on a short week off a MNF division win. Take the Ravens off a home division loss on the ML to win straight up on a short road trip.
ST. LOUIS (ML)(+) - L - The Rams have been playing great. Bradford should have phenomenal slot guy Amendola back (a poor man's Welker), and rookie WR Givens can stretch the field with the best of them. Rams play disciplined defense and showed a lot of looks to the Niner's - which doesn't bode well for the limited Bills offense. Will not be surprised if the Rams win straight out.
NFL ALSO LIKE PICKS: Indianapolis, Cincinnati
11/30/12 NFL Picks Week 13
DETROIT - L - The Lions have an excellent over the top pass attack, they'll put up 30+ points against this secondary. The Colts are a nice improving team, but they can't match points on the road in this one.
SAN FRANCISCO - L - Niner's defense gets another crack at the underwhelming Ram's offense. St. Louis will have trouble cracking double digits in this one. 24-13 San Fran, they'll win by two scores. Consider the Rams don't have a sustaining running game, and the Niner's pass rush is exceptional.
SEATTLE (ML)(+) - W - This one shapes up to be a FG game either way. Chicago sans Forte will have trouble establishing a consistent rush attack. Seattle should be able to run the ball, and they can go toe to toe with Chicago on special teams. Ought to be a slug fest - take the points, and we won't be surprised if the Seahawks outright win.
ALSO LIKES: Minnesota (+)
11/25/12 NFL Picks Week 12
BUFFALO (ML)(+) - L - The Colts can be ran on and Bills RB Spiller is elite. Buffalo defense playing better lately. This one should be decided by 3 either way, and it won't be a surprise if Buffalo outright wins.
NY GIANTS - W - Another contest that should be a good game to watch. Green Bay pass protection isn't what it was, and NY has a front seven that can give the good ones fits. No rush attack from the Pack hurts their passing game. NY wins again.
ST. LOUIS (ML)(+) - W - NFL SUNDAY UPDATE - Nice situational play with the hard driving Rams. St. Louis has outperformed expectations and is not gifted offensively, but they take care of the ball and are well coached in the trenches. No matter who Whisenhunt puts in at QB they will have a hard time staying upright behind that O-line. We like the Rams to win a close one straight up.
Thanksgiving Also Like Picks: Detroit (+), Washington (+), and the NY Jets (+).
11/16/12 NFL Picks Week 11
ATLANTA - L - Forget last week, it was a great spot for the Saints. Falcons are fundamentally sound, with an excellent over the top pass attack. Cardinals cannot match, and have regressed since their eye opening start. Arizona has trouble running the ball, which leaves their defense on the field too long, that will be trouble against this high octane attack - Atlanta by 10-14.
CLEVELAND (ML)(+) - W - Browns can run the football against this defense, Cowboys have a great secondary, but are vulnerable vs the run. Cleveland defense is solid, and they play with intensity - classic let down spot for Dallas. Take the generous points.
Also Likes: Baltimore
11/11/12 NFL Picks Week 10
CHICAGO - L- Two heavy weights with top notch defenses meeting at Soldier Field. This shapes up to be a great game to watch. Bears have superior run defense and should be able to minimize damage of Texans zone blocking scheme. On the other side we think Chicago will be able run on the Texans. Chicago has the superior special teams units, and that should be the difference in a closely matched game. Chicago by 3-7.
Also Likes: Philadelphia (ML)
11/3/12 Hello everyone, hope your enjoying success with our red hot NFL Money Line picks this season. We've been doing this for free the past 3 years, just because we enjoy doing it, and find satisfaction interacting with fellow betting enthusiasts (while at the same time stroking our prognosticating egos). So, I'd like to ask the regular visitors of our site (all two of you) to consider making a small contribution to my younger brother's movie funding campaign for "Medal of Victory". He's trying to raise enough funds by November 20th to make a movie - yes a real motion picture. Kind of like how Matt Damon of "Good Will Hunting" got started - a lower budget dramatic/artistic film. If the fund raising target is not reached you keep your donation. You can read about the proposed project and hopefully make a small contribution of whatever you can afford by clicking here: Donate to Medal of Victory
(My brother is the producer, and will play the part of Sheriff Hicks Ford.)
11/4/12 NFL Picks Week 9
DALLAS (ML)(+) - L -Such is the way of NFL football, the underachieving Cowboys are dogs on the road to the well coached and undefeated Falcons. Purely a situational play, but Dallas does have the elite skill position players on offense, and a great defensive secondary that matches up quite well. Will not be surprised at all if Dallas wins outright. If they had any semblance of a rush attack this would be an A+ pick.
TAMPA BAY (ML)(+) - W - Bucs like to run the football, and Oakland has trouble stopping the run... not sure why their even favored. Take the hard nosed Bucs to win a squeeker.
MIAMI - L - The Dolphins are another team that is dedicated to running the ball, and the Colts run defense struggles. Reggie Bush and company should have a great day on the fast turf. Colts don't have enough weapons on offense to overcome the staunch Miami defense.
ALSO LIKE PICK: Seattle
10/28/12 NFL Picks Week 8
MIAMI (ML)(+) - W - Excellent fundamental matchup advantages to the Fish. They can run the ball, and they can stop the run.
CLEVELAND (ML)(+) - W - Things just aren't clicking for the Chargers, on the other side the Browns are really playing gutsy inspired football. This is the kind of game San Diego fails every year.
SEATTLE (ML)(+) - L - Seahawks have an elite secondary, and if they can run Marshawn Lynch on San Fran they can certainly move the ball on the ground against Detroit. But what I really like here is the Seattle defense vs the struggling Detroit offense.
NFL Also Like Picks:
10/21/12 NFL Picks Week 7
DALLAS - W - Carolina just isn't that good, they don't take care of the football, and despite not having great team chemistry at least Dallas has skilled position players. They should win here by 7-10 points. Early NFL Sunday UPDATE: Upgraded to an A quality pick. Panthers are dinged up on the o-line... and Cam's dad mentoring him on leadership? That just smells like trouble. Carolina just hasn't been able to run or throw the ball. Cowboys have the talent, they have the top rated secondary in the NFL, they have the motivation, and the situation is highly favorable.
OAKLAND - L - A little spooked by the 1- 4 Raiders as favorites, but consider they have shown flashes of competitiveness against some pretty good teams - and they have the far better quarterback in this contest. Raiders by 10.
TAMPA BAY (ML)(+) - L - The Bucs secondary sucks... but they play inspired physical football, and the Saints aren't playing that way. All things considered I like Tampa to win a squeeker straight up.
ALSO LIKE PICKS: Bal/Hou OVER, Pittsburgh
10/11/12 NFL Picks Week 6
SAN FRANCISCO A+ Pick - L - Niner's are playing at a high level fundamentally, plus have emotional impetus on their side. NY is banged up at the receiver position and in the secondary, this is where it catches up to them. San Fran wins by 7-10.
SEATTLE (ML)(+) - W - The Seahawks playing fundamentally sound football on both sides of the ball. They have a great secondary that is deep and matches up well to the Patriots receivers, AND they play the run well. Seattle can run the ball on anybody. This will probably be a lower scoring affair, decided by a FG either way. Take the home team and the points, and they may win straight up.
Be sure and check Dale's red hot weekly NFL office pool picks blog!
NFL ALSO LIKE PICKS: Baltimore, Philadelphia
10/3/12 NFL Pick Week 5
CINCINNATI - L Bengals are playing at a high level, and they're catching the Fish in back to back road games with the rookie QB thing. Cincinnati has a balanced offensive attack, and a respectable defense. Miami will struggle to put points on the board. Bengals by 7.
ALSO LIKE PICKS: Indianapolis (+), Seattle (+)
9/27/12 NFL Picks Week 4
DENVER A+ PICK - W Oakland can be pushed around in the trenches, and they can be ran on... Denver can run the ball when they set their minds to it. Bronco's off consecutive losses, Manning is finding his stroke, and Oakland does not present a formidable secondary or threatening pass rush. Look for Denver to win by 7-10 at home.
SAN FRANCISCO - W NYJ simply did not look good against Miami, either that or the Fish are better than we thought. The Niner's are a physical team that can run the football down your throat - the Jets run defense has slipped a bit, and it will show up here. Look for San Fran to win by about seven.
NY GIANTS (ML)(+) - W The best upset pick on the board. NY has an athletic front seven and they'll pressure Vick all day. Giants are vulnerable in the secondary, but Philly doesn't have the sophisticated pass attack to take advantage. Look for NY to run the ball... and pull off the upset.
ALSO LIKE PICKS: KC(+), NE, MIAMI(+)
9/21/12 NFL Picks Week 3
SAN DIEGO A+ - L (Early Sunday UPDATE) Laying a FG this is an A+ pick, with the hook it's downgraded to a B rated bankroll play- this one is available right now laying an even three. This is a nice situational schedule matchup for the Chargers, and they have a fundamental matchup advantage as well: Consider the unheralded Chargers run defense has held two traditional run oriented NFL powerhouse rushing offenses to under 50 yards; AND Atlanta has had trouble running the football in recent games. On the other side the Chargers have a balanced run/pass attack and the Atlanta defense has been vulnerable when they don't create turnovers. I have San Diego putting up 24-28 points, and Atlanta posting 17-24. Lay the number for a 5% of bankroll pick.
NY JETS - W It's a division game, where one of the leagues premier defenses is facing a rookie QB, running an offensive scheme without premier weapons (outside of Bush). The Fish are one dimensional - last week they ran the football well on one of the worst rush defenses in the league - this week they face one of the better run defenses in the NFL. The number is less than a FG... the Jets should win by 4-7.
ARIZONA (ML)(+) W - The Eagles are sputtering in as road favorites with a suspect O-line, facing one of the league's better defenses. Vick plays poorly when he's forced to make quick decisions - and the Cardinal defense is geared to take away the football. The pick is Arizona straight up by a FG.
CINCINNATI (ML)(+) W - The Bengals have the better game day QB right now, and they actually have a pretty decent D. Washington spreads the ball around on offensive, but they really don't have a premier NFL caliber offensive weapon, relying on college schemes to move the football. Cincinnati has an emerging threat over the top, and they don't turn the ball over. We won't be surprised to see the Bengals pull off the upset.
NFL "ALSO LIKES" (updated): Detroit, San Diego, Chicago
9/15/12 NFL Picks Week 2
CINCINNATI A+ - P - Too early in the season to adequately analyze football team fundamentals. The situational advantage goes to the home team Bengals, who are coming in off a MNF division loss and playing in their home opener. Browns starting a 2nd tier rookie QB getting his first road start, to a division foe. Same formula as Houston vs. Miami last week - the Cincy defense can win this one straight up - lay the TD as the Bengals should be hyper focused for a division opponent and win by double digits.
St. Louis (+)(ML) - W - The Situation: Rams gave Detroit all they could handle last week, and return home to a dome for their opener; skins played great last week and didnt give up the football; however they are going on their second road game with a rookie QB, though RG3 played great it's hard to dial up the intensity for back to back road games. Consider Rams QB Bradford is no slouch, HC Fisher will undoubtedly rely heavily on RB Steven Jackson to run the ball, and now that he's seen the film his defense will know how to prepare for the Skins. Take the FG and the Rams may win straight up.
Indianapolis (+)(ML) - W - (Late Update) Minnesota shouldn't be a road favorite over anybody. Vikings have a good d-line, but a weak secondary. Look for Luck to have some success with short and mid range throws.
NFL "Also Like" Picks: NE, Jacksonville (+)
Check out Dale's NFL office pool football picks!
9/1/12 Quick NFL Season Picks n Hits
A couple NFL teams who I will pick to outperform there preseason over/under number: The Chicago Bears may outright win their division - they have what shapes up to be a potent balanced offense and a top 10 defense - that's a championship recipe. The NFC is loaded this year, but if your looking for an under the radar super bowl pick the Bears are it. HC Jeff Fisher and the St. Louis Rams would not have passed on RG3 and traded away the 2nd pick in the draft if they did not believe they had a special All Pro NFL caliber talent in QB Sam Bradford. The Rams were decimated by injuries in the secondary and receiver position last year - look for them to surprise a few teams, and scrap themselves to a .500 season record. On the flip side picking an underperforming NFL team I wouldn't be surprised to see the Detroit Lions take a step back - they're a one trick pony - and even lower tier NFL defenses can scheme to pick their poison and contain a one trick offensive attack. The Lions rush attack is impotent - especially inside the 20, and the secondary is still porous, AND... the NFC is loaded.
Check out Dale's NFL championship winning Week 1 NFL Office Pool Picks in the FOOTBALL BLOG!
8/31/12 NFL Picks Week 1
HOUSTON - W- A playoff caliber top notch defense hosting a 2nd tier rookie QB getting his first road start of the season - that is 10 points right there.
BUFFALO (+)(ML) L The Bills travel to the meadowlands getting a FG and may be able to win straight up. Jets weren't able to move the ball last year, their offensive line is a mess (it was once a strength), and the offense hasn't done a thing in preseason that indicates things have changed - if anything they've regressed. The Bills can at least run the ball, this has all the earmarks of a FG game either way.
NFL "ALSO LIKE" PICKS: St.Louis (+), KC (+), Philly
Early Super Bowl Pick (1/23/12): Damn - the Patriots are favored by 3 points? Giants on the ML at 110. Patriots won't be able to stop the NY short and medium range pass attack; and they no longer have the advantage of knowing the other teams offensive signals.
Conference Championship Picks: Don't feel near as confident with these football picks as I did last week - and I'm probably not going to be putting down any action. That said if my arm was twisted and I had to make a play I'd probably go with the NY Giants on the ML as the AFC pick. This ought to be a super great game to watch. In the NFC, though the Pats offense is unstoppable and they will probably prevail, just don't see how they're a TD favorite; it wouldn't surprise me to see Baltimore win - taking the Ravens and 7 with the hook looks attractive.
NFL Football Divisional Playoff Picks: Be sure to check out Dale's playoff analysis in the NFL Football Blog!
Late in the football season and NFL playoffs there usually isn't much line value left to pick from in these games, but this week I'm feeling a rare playoff contest that just begs to be bet on the Money Line:
SAN FRANCISCO (ML)(+) - Consider the situation: The Niner's are playing at home on grass off a bye, and the Saints are coming off an explosive Sunday win in their home dome, traveling to what will surely be a slow soggy Candlestick field (which reduces the unique effectiveness of speedy RB Darren Sproles). Then consider the fundamentals: Niner's have an elite run defense, a solid pass rush, and they don't give up big plays. They have the all pro athletes on the outside of the 3-4 defense to match up to and minimize Saints elite TE Daniel Graham. San Francisco has the defensive players and a sound scheme to reduce the effectiveness of the Saints juggernaut offense. On the other side of the ball Niner's play power run football right up the middle, with just enough downfield passing to keep the Saints from stacking the line. My pick is San Francisco, they will post 20-24 points, while N.O. is good for 17-21 points. Which makes this a great three to four percent of bankroll ML play on the home dog.
BALTIMORE - The defense is elite, and Houston is starting a true rookie QB on the road in the playoffs. This one has the earmarks of a POUNDER. Lay the points as the home team will push to establish a two score margin, and win by double digits.
NFL "ALSO LIKES" PICKS: Denver (+), Green Bay
NFL Football Wildcard Picks & Comment:
The NFL wild card round is not a good time to make up ground on your football betting bankroll. If you're in that position keep in mind NFL playoff games are among the most heavily wagered football events of the year, and the Vegas lines tend to get tight in those situations. If you place a wager this week remember to observe the 3-5% of bankroll per pick wagering strategy.
Pittsburgh at Denver does look tempting, as I don't see where the points are going to come from for Denver - they may not reach double digits. However, the Steelers are without several key players on both sides of the ball; of particular concern is the absence of starting center Pouncey. The talking heads are heavily on the heralded Steelers to thump Denver on the road. The Bronco's defense is pretty good, and the Steeler's offense has been sputtering. All things considered if my arm was bent I'd probably take the home team and the points.
Detroit at New Orleans is another contest which appears to be a severe mismatch - and it probably will be - but that doesn't mean I have to invest on either side. Lions have the type of explosive offense that could put up points in this situation, they probably will not stay with the Saints, but they have type of offense that matches up fairly well here. Another contest where if I had to take either side I'd take the generous points.
Cincinnati at Houston features two rookie quarterbacks, and two stout defenses. All things considered this one shapes up to be another conservative lower scoring affair. Consider that Cincinnati has not faired well against upper echelon competition - and despite the inexperienced QB the Texans can play at a very high level on both sides of the ball - featuring a very potent attack out of their two headed back field. Cincinnati can move the ball between the 20's, but has trouble in the red zone against superior defenses - which is Houston. I don't think Houston goes far in the playoffs, but here my call is they win by 3 to 7 points.
Atlanta at NY Giants may be the best game to watch this weekend. Many analyst's are touting NY as a dark horse team which might emerge from the NFC - I don't think so. In fact, they will have their hands full just getting past Atlanta. The Falcons match up incredibly well to NY - they should be able to run the ball. If they had a receiving threat out of the backfield it would be an excellent match-up advantage. On the other side of the ball Atlanta's secondary is pretty solid, and Eli has been known to give up the ball when he gets pressured. This one shapes up to be a 3 point contest either way, and it will not surprise in the least to see Atlanta pull off the road upset - probably the best wild card play on the board.
Week 14 NFL picks
SEATTLE (+)(ML) - W - Fundamentally Seahawks are vulnerable over the top to efficient pass attacks, Chicago is hardly that. Without Forte' the Bears do not have the screen option, without Cutler the Bears have a limited downfield threat. Seattle on the other hand has an identity - they can and will run the ball. The defenses are respectable for both teams. This one should be decided by less than a TD either way. It's a bold play, but Seattle straight-up on the ML is a good value bet.
PITTSBURGH (+)(ML) - L - MNF - Situationally Steelers are a very good MNF road team, San Fran may not be. Fundamentally San Fran is vulnerable over the top to efficient pass attacks, and bad wheel or not if Roethlisberger plays Pittsburgh has a great downfield attack.
NFL ALSO LIKES PICKS: Tennessee (+)
Week 13 Football picks
NY GIANTS (+)(ML) - W - The G-men just a tougher team mentally than the Cowboys. This one probably goes down to the wire decided by a FG. No significant fundamental advantage edge to exploit, just see some value in the line on the ML playing the stronger team to outright win, or keep it within a FG. NY does have the downfield pass attack to exploit this Cowboys secondary.
ATLANTA - W - Fundamental match-up advantage for the Falcon's run oriented offense against one of the leagues worst rush defenses. Atlanta has the secondary to contain Carolina's downfield pass threat, and disciplined linebackers to minimize Newton's run options. The line is an even 3, there is some value to playing Atlanta at that number, as I have the Falcons by 3-7 points.
ALSO LIKES: Philadelphia (ML)
NFL Picks for week 13
SEATTLE (+)(ML) - W - The Seahawks have the hard nosed run first mentality that can discourage and defeat the Eagles. Philadelphia does not possess the fluid pass attack that can exploit the Seahawks primary vulnerability. Seattle should outright win - by 3 or more.
DENVER A+ Play on the ML - W - Tebow does not turn the ball over, and without AP the only chance the Vikings have is to score on a short field. Consider these factors and make your own decision: CB Champ Bailey can limit WR Percy Harvin's impact, the other starting wideout, Michael Jenkins, is out for the rest of the year. Rookie QB Ponder will not have his check down options and Denver has a very good pass rush. Take the disciplined under the radar Broncos with 5% of bankroll on the Money Line to win straight up.
NFL ALSO LIKES PICKS: San Fran, Washington (+)
Week 12 NFL Picks
SAN FRANCISCO (+)(ML) - L - The only team the Ravens should be favored by six over is Pittsburgh. Niner's have the run defense to contain the sustaining portion of Baltimore's run first offense. Offensively they have the running game and short over the middle pass attack that will give Baltimore trouble. Take the generous points, and don't be surprised if San Fran out right wins.
DENVER (+) - W - Bronco's defense is playing at a high level right now, and San Diego rushing offense has disappeared. Chargers O-Line is struggling, while Bronco's can both stop the run and get to the passer - they have CB Bailey to take away home run threat Vincent Jackson. Take Denver and the generous points to keep this one close.
Also Likes: Houston
Week 11 NFL Picks - Just feeling the one play worth placing a wager on this week. Be sure and check out Dale's office pool picks in the NFL Football Blog!
CLEVELAND (+)(ML) - W - The Jaguars bring in a struggling rookie QB playing on the road. Jags do have a decent ground attack, and that has been an area where the Browns have struggled in defense. However, Cleveland has the stronger offense, and superior special teams. Play Cleveland on the Money Line to win a relatively lower scoring affair straight up.
NFL PICKS "ALSO LIKES": San Fran, Green Bay
Week 10 NFL Picks:
DETROIT (+)(ML) - W - The Lions are vulnerable up the middle to power rushing attacks - that's not the Bears. Detroit defense excels at applying pressure on the pocket right up the middle - where the Bears are weak. Chicago is vulnerable in the secondary both to big play receivers AND quality tight ends - that's Detroit's game. Lions coming in off a bye, Bears coming in on the short Monday Night Football week.
PITTSBURGH A+ - W - The Steelers are off a home division loss to the Ravens, and should not overlook the division leading Bengals. Cincinnati is 6-2 overall, but have just one division win (Cleveland), and one quality win thus far (Buffalo). Pittsburgh has a top shelf pass defense, the best rookie QB Dalton has seen to this point. Steelers should be able to move the ball both on the ground and over the top. Pittsburgh should put up 21 to 24 points, Cincy will post 13-17. Lay the FG for a 4% of bankroll play.
NFL PICKS Also Likes: San Francisco, St. Louis, Philadelphia, NY Jets, Buffalo
NY JETS (+)(ML) - W - A fundamentals play - Buffalo can run the ball when they can spread you out - and though the Jets can be run on by elite rushing teams - that's not the Bills. The Jets will put their corners on an Island and focus on stopping the run - their linebackers play well in space. NY has recently been focusing on establishing the run, and the Bills can be had if you can run the ball on them. After a hot start Fitzpatrick has cooled off, and NY is off the bye facing an upstart division foe. If NY was just playing a bit better on the road this would be an A+ rated pick. Jets by 3.
CINCINNATI (+) - W - The team playing better ball is getting points, but it's tough to win two weeks in a row on the road. Still, the young team is playing better as the season progresses. Titans don't have anything going right now, either on the ground or down the field, and this is a staunch defense they're facing. Cincy and the points, and won't be surprised if they outright win.
ALSO LIKES NFL PICKS: Kansas City, NYG/NE UNDER, Oakland, St. Louis
The picks are rolling of late and we want to keep it that way:
INDIANAPOLIS (+) - L - A situational play: Colts are a proud team coming off a Monday night debacle. Getting double digits points on the road against a team that is anything but a power house. Titans having a difficult time getting the running game going and they don't have a deep threat to stretch a defense. This might be closer than Vegas things - I'll play the points.
DALLAS - L - This just is not a good match-up for Philly. Dallas front 7 should control the trenches AND contain Vick. Cowboys are vulnerable over the top to a precision pass attack - but that's not the Eagles. On the other side Philly is vulnerable up the gut to a strong running game - and that is DeMarco Murray. Dallas by 7.
PICKS NFL ALSO LIKE: WASHINGTON (+), BALTIMORE, HOUSTON
Finally stopped the skid with two needed wins last week, let's keep it rolling:
ATLANTA - A+ (ML) - W - This is a "must" win for the Falcons, they'll be focused going into Detroit before their bye. Atlanta matches up quite well with the Lions in that they're a run first team, they have an elite running back in Michael Turner, and Detroit can be ran on right up the gut. On the other side of the ball the Falcons have a quality CB in Robinson, with deep help on Megatron; and their linebackers are decent covering the TE. The Falcons should stay within a FG, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them win by 7 for our first A plus rated play of the year.
DENVER (+) - W - Bronco's are the better team, and they are playing with passion. Miami seems like they've already packed it in for the off-season. Fundamentally speaking the Dolphins secondary is thin to non-existent, and Tebow should have a solid debut.
Denver is getting points, but they may actually win.
PICKS NFL ALSO LIKES: Carolina
The early part of the season has been trying, I certainly wouldn't be betting the picks at this point. That said...
BALTIMORE - Texans arguably without best player on offense and defense.... Don't see where Houston is going to generate the points to stay up. On the other side Baltimore has firepower to move the ball over the top and up the middle. Ravens by 10 - lay the seven.
BUFFALO (+)(ML) - W - Bills playing at a high level and bring it every week. Giants having trouble sustaining a rushing attack, and have limited options downfield. Will not be surprised to see the high flying Bills outright win. Lay the heavy 3.
Game to watch: Dallas at New England - this one ought to be a dog fight. Also Like: San Fran(+) at Detroit.
NFL Picks Week 5 10/08/11
NEW ORLEANS - L - A division rivalry contest means the Saints will be focused. They've had time to look at film accumulated on rookie phenom Cam Newton; and the defensive scheming of the Saints is actually quite good. Look for the improved New Orleans secondary to welcome Newton to the NFL. Saints by 10.
ATLANTA (+) - L - The Falcon's have underperformed to this point, and should be highly focused for this prime time contest. Consider the way to beat the Pack is to run the ball, while the Falcons playbook is predicated on establishing the run. This should be a great one to watch, decided by a FG either way.
PICKS NFL Also Likes: NY Giants, Arizona
NFL Picks Week 4 10/01/11
PHILADEPHIA - L - Eagles off consecutive losses, including a tough division contest. Philly is the superior team and should be focused here. Eagles are vulnerable to the run, but San Francisco's O-line has been a weak point, and don't see them being able to substantially exploit this weakness. Birds by 10.
NY JETS(+)(ML) - L - Take the points, this might be the best game on the board to watch this Sunday, which should be decided by a FG either way. NY was exploited last week by a very good Oakland running game; however, though the Baltimore running game is good, its not on a par with Oakland's. Look for a tightly contested game. Ravens by 1.
NFL Picks Week 3 09/24/11 Last week was a rough 0-3 against the line. Dale's office pool picks faired better. Cautiously optimistic we can bounce back hard this week with a couple interesting Money Line picks:
MIAMI (+)(ML) - W - The Fish have faced two of the leagues dominant offenses the first two weeks, now face a struggling Cleveland O with a running game gone AWOL. WR Brandon Marshall is back on his game and QB Henne is much improved. Fish better on both sides of the ball, should be favored - they win by 10.
CHICAGO (+)(ML) - L - Green Bay defense has surprisingly been porous thus far, they're struggling defending the deep ball, and OC Martz will be able to exploit. Chicago is tough at home, they whupped a pretty good Atlanta squad here two weeks ago. They are going to give Green Bay all they can handle, and I won't be surprised if they outright win. This one is decided by 3 either way - take the points.
NFL FOOTBALL PICKS ALSO LIKES: Pittsburgh, San Diego
NFL Picks Week 2 09/16/11 Check the football blog for Dale's week 2 NFL office pool picks.
GREEN BAY - L - Last week Arizona was without their top two corner backs from last year, don't expect miracles from Cam Newton this week. Green Bay vastly superior team on both sides of the ball. The Pack can and should win this one going away. My Pounder play of the day - Pack by 17.
DALLAS - L - Cowboys have a suspect secondary, and so do the Niners. Problem is Alex Smith will not be able to exploit the shaky Dallas secondary, while Romo has the downfield weapons, and the motivation to light up the Niners. Boyz by 7
MIAMI (+)(ML) - L - I'm calling the Dolphins to win this one straight up. Henne shined against the Pats, and the Texans don't have the secondary New England does. The fish should be able to move the ball over the top on Houston. Look for Miami to hit TE Fasano and WR Bess often in a ball control pass attack. Expect Texans might come out a bit flat. Like the solid situation and fish have fundamental means to pull off the upset. Miami by 7.
NFL Football Picks Week 1 09/04/11 Be sure and check Dale's NFL office pool picks for his weekly scorecast on each every NFL match up. Dale is the reigning champion for having the best 2010 record among hundreds of participants in a nationwide NFL office pool score picking contest. Check out his weekly NFL picks every week in the Football Blog.
CLEVELAND - L - Excellent defense, superior rush attack, and stable quarterback play make this a solid A play, laying less than a TD, to a visiting Bengals team in a state of chaos. The Browns D may win this one on their own. Loan Cleveland weakness is their secondary, but Cincy doesn't have the pass attack to take advantage. WASHINGTON (+)(ML) - W - The skins are getting a FG at home, and I think they may outright win this contest; excellent MoneyLine pick. Washington has a decent secondary, and Giants run a complex pass attack, which is playing their first game of the year. A short training camp gives the advantage here to the home team defense.
NFL Football Picks 08/11/11 Oh hell yes FOOTBALL is here! Dale has contributed his NFL insights to the Football Blog. We are looking over free agent moves and analyzing the opening line, and it looks like we may already have a couple nice NFL betting picks opening weekend. We're going to look at these a little closer and update them sooner than later.
WEEK NFL Picks 12/5/10 NEW ORLEANS - The Bengals defense has fallen off and the offense is getting very good at giving the ball to the opposition. Consider the Saints underrated defense, potent offense, and motivation to play for a first round bye, and we have positive fundamental and situational match-up advantages. Lay the six.
BUFFALO - The Bills have been scrappy, their offensive line is coming together, and the Vikings are discouraged and falling apart. I expect the Bills will stay in this one, and will not be surprised to seem them outright win.
WEEK NFL Picks 11/20/10 Cleveland - The Browns are playing very well. Jacksonville is off two emotional wins and might come out flat here. Cleveland is never flat. Fundamentally they have the ground and pound rushing attack to sustain rookie QB McCoy, and an underrated defense. Consider that Jacksonville offense struggled last week against leagues worst defense (Houston), don't see them faring any better here. My call is Cleveland outright wins on the road.
Next Week - Look for the "Pick of the Week" on Friday in the FOOTBALL BLOG
FOOTBALL PICKS ALSO LIKES: It looks like a Dog Day afternoon....
WEEK NFL Picks 11/13/10 HOUSTON (ML) - Jacksonville doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the most potent aerial attack in the league. The way to beat Houston is get to Schaub, and the Jags don't have the pass rush to consistently pressure him. Texans win outright by 7 to 10 points.
PITTSBURGH - Don't see the Pats moving the ball on this defense. They don't have the offensive firepower or deep threat to stretch the Steeler defense. On the other side Pittsburgh has the dominating ground game that can take advantage of the young Pats defense.
11/04/10 MINNESOTA A+ rated pick - The line is currently at eight, the Vikings at less than double digits is a top rated pick in this spot. Consider the Vikings are a skill position talented laden team off a high profile loss, off the Randy Moss fiasco they still believe in themselves, and they are in "circle the wagons mode". On the other side neither Arizona Cardinals players nor coaches believe in the QB, they have no running game to speak of, and their 29th ranked rush defenses is facing RB Adrian Peterson and an offensive line that is determined to lay down the wood this week. I'm feeling an "all in" A+ rated play (that's a 5% of bankroll play for the wise, and the month's rent money for the foolish :)
Check out Dale's NFL office pool picks in the weekly FOOTBALL BLOG.
WEEK 8 Check out Dale's weekly NFL office pool picks in our Football Blog. Our best of the best NFL picks are a phenomenal 13 wins against two losses thus far. That's an incredible winning percentage of 87% - I'm thinking I should get divorced more often! On to this weeks picks (for entertainment purposes only of course:)
DENVER (ML) - This is strictly a "situational" play, as by the numbers the oddsmakers have the line right where its supposed to be. Fundamentally speaking there is not a major match-up advantage for either squad. This is a "road" contest for both teams, and Singletary CAN'T coach... period. Playing on the road in London I'll take the superior QB with the superior coaching.
TAMPA BAY (ML)(+) - The Bucs are getting a FG on the road, and both Dale and I think this is a game they might flat out win. Arizona doesn't have a QB who sees the field, and that allows the Bucs to stack the line and stop the run. Only thing keeping this from being an A-rated opinion is the Bucs have trouble putting pressure on the QB. On the other side of the ball QB Josh Freeman is the real deal - he can flat out play.
Also Likes: San Diego, Houston (+)
10/23/10 CLEVELAND (+) - This is not a situation where the Saints typically lay the wood. Browns are a power rushing team, and they'll look to pound the ball all day and takeaway the Saints big play. Look for Cleveland to stay within the generous number.
KANSAS CITY - The Jags have no offense to speak of, no deep threat allows the Chiefs to stack the line. Chiefs should be able to move the ball on the ground, and will take their shots deep on this vulnerable secondary. KC off a tough road loss, and will not overlook this overmatched foe.
MIAMI (+)(ML) - The defensive minded Dolphins should be able to minimize the big play, and slow the run. Underrated Fish should hang here, and I won't be surprised at all if they pull off the outright upset.
Also Likes: Seattle, Cincinnati (+)
10/13/10 SAN FRANCISCO A+ rated pick - The winless Niner's are playing their 2nd home game, while the Raiders are traveling in a division sandwich (at Denver next week). Oakland is vulnerable to power rush attacks, and San Fran can bring it on the ground with Frank Gore. Consider there is line value here due to tough home loss last week for the Niner's, and Raiders were fortunate to get two scores off punt blocks in their home win. Niner's have a better than average rush defense, the Raiders can't throw the ball, and don't have a pass rush. The line is less than a TD, this is a rare opportunity where fundamental matchup advantages coincide with situational motivation for a premium 4-5% of bankroll A+ rated NFL pick.
10/08/10 HOUSTON - The Giants vaunted front 7 has not been formidable thus far, while the Texans offensive line has been dominant. Look for Houston to be able to move the ball on the ground AND over the top against this vulnerable Giants secondary (regardless of whether Andre Johnson is in the line-up or not). Houston lost at home the last time they were here (to Dallas), this is a solid fundamental and motivational play against another headliner home opponent. NY should be able to move the ball between the 20's, but without Ahmed Bradshaw will not have a sustaining ground attack. The Texans are for real, their offensive line is playing well, and their pass attack should be able to move the ball up and down the field all day.
Chicago - Starting a back-up QB in Todd Collins, but he's still better than who the Panthers are trotting out... the Carolina secondary can be beaten, and the Panthers do not have a pass rush.... On the other side fo the ball the Bears have a formidable run defense, should be able to contain the Carolina rush attack, AND they can get after the passer. Bears special teams and defense might win this one without the offense taking the field.
For those in Vegas initially it might be difficult to lay money on the REDSKINS on the ML as a home dog, but this line just does not add up (Green Bay is favored by only 2.5). This line just smells bad, as strictly by the numbers GB should be favored by 3.5 in this contest... so if you have a contrarian bent and are willing to take a risk WASHINGTON would be an interesting ML play as a home dog. Consider that the Skins do have some excellent match-ups on defense against what the Packers like to do in their spread offense with the tight end. If you are adverse to taking the Skins here please do yourself a favor and avoid taking the Packers. This one will be close, and I will not be surprised to see the Skins pull off the home upset.
ALSO LIKES: KC (+), Cleveland (+), New Orleans
10/03/10 ATLANTA Game day update: 49ers traveling to East coast with backup center. Things don't look to get better for the struggling Niners offense, against a Falcon defense which has played very well thus far - they should have no trouble stopping the one dimensional Niner offense. On the other side of the ball San Fran has struggled to stop the run, and the Falcons have two dynamic rushers in Turner and Snelling. Look for a double digit home win for Atlanta.
NFL Week 4 10/01/10 ST. LOUIS (+)(ML) Has a young dynamic QB learning on the job, playing against a division opponent without a strong pass rush and weak secondary... look for Bradford to have his best day as a Pro. Seattle does not have the sustaining rush attack it takes to win on the road, and they are banged up on the offensive line. The surprising Rams have been in every game they've played... and Seattle has not been a good traveling team. We like St. Louis to win straight up, and there is some value in Vegas taking them on the ML.
Also Likes: Baltimore (+), NY Giants, Cincinnati
9/24/10 Absent a strong power rushing opponent INDIANAPOLIS has the offensive passing attack to win every game they play. Denver does not have the dominant O-line, or the rushing attack that can give the Indy defense trouble. On the other side of the ball the Denver secondary and pass rush does not present a formidable obstacle for the Colts offense. Look for the Colts to post 24-27+ points, while the Bronco's should put up 17-19, a TD cover by the visiting Colts.
ATLANTA (+) has three quality RB's capable of carrying the rock behind their strong O-line, and they will look to pound it on the capable Saints defense... Saints secondary has to respect Roddy White and deep pass attack. This should be the game of the week. I like the Falcons to keep it close, and probably pull off the upset. The Saints offense does not seem to be clicking on all cylinders, and won't be able to dominate the Falcons shortcomings in their secondary. This should be a helluva a good game to watch, and have a 3% of bankroll play on the dog.
Also Likes: Kansas City, Detroit (+)
9/20/10 Usually the Monday Night football contest is an "entertainment" type game, but this week there is legitimate value in laying the modest number and taking NEW ORLEANS to lay the wood to the hapless Niners. San Fran does not have the fire power to stay with the potent Saints, nor the defense to contain them. The line is currently at -5.5, at anything less than a TD this Monday Night play has winner written all over it.
9/18/10 CINCINNATI can throw the ball, and despite last weeks excellent defensive performance the Ravens can certainly be thrown on. QB Carson Palmer will look to take the Baltimore secondary deep, and has the tools to do so; perhaps more importantly he has a coach who knows how to take advantage of the Ravens primary defensive weakness - defending the long ball. Ravens coming in off a short week, off an emotional Monday night win against former DC Ryan, which gives a little bit of line value for a straight up ML play. Cincy is a three point dog at home, and I have them outright winning this game... great Money Line play.
9/017/10 We have the ATLANTA Falcons posting a double digit win vs Arizona, who are playing 2nd road game, this time traveling to east coast. This is an A-rated play at laying a number under a TD, a B-rated play otherwise. Consider Falcons love to run the ball with the Burner, and Cardinals give up 4.5 ypg rushing.... Furthermore, Cardinals rank in the bottom 25 percentile vs the pass and QB Matt Ryan should have no problem picking apart this secondary. Lay the TD and play Atlanta.
Updated 9/18/10 due to injuries on D-line Browns are downgraded to "Also Like rated play. However, at under a FG there is still some small value in the play.
CLEVELAND will likely be starting Seneca Wallace at QB, but don't be discouraged, he knows this offensive scheme, and will provide juice BOTH passing and running the ball against KC's young defense. The key here will be the Browns defense and special teams - both should provide a relatively easy cover vs a young Chiefs team playing on the road off a short week.
Also Likes: GIANTS (+), New England, Cleveland
Check out Dale's weekly office pool picks in our Football Blog. Dale has been a consistent top 5 performer for several years running in Gary Schultz straight up NFLscorepicks.org office pool picks competition. If my weekly NFL football picks are not posted here for any reason by Friday evening of each week, be sure and check the football blog.
9/013/10 The NY Jets do not look like a playoff team to me. Twice in Baltimore territory they played "not to lose". The move that cost them the game was going for the chip shot FG on 4th down and 6 inches - even though they got three points out of it (to go up by 6) that tactical move still left them just 1 score from falling behind; AND sent a huge psychological message to the Ravens that they doubted their ability to move the ball just 6 inches... it was the message of doubt in themselves that cost them the game. For all their pre-season swagger and super bowl talk the Jets came up small on Monday night in the mojo department. After what I saw Monday I don't see this team making the playoffs, let alone winning the division.
9/09/10 MIAMI is a small favorite on the road at Buffalo. The Bills offensive line has been in disarray for the past two years, and nothing was done this off-season to fill the talent gap at the tackle position. This may be a lower scoring affair, but don't see the bills establishing a ground attack, and outside of Evans they do not have a "go to" scoring threat. CJ Spiller is a wild card, but if he has a big game it will be despite his offensive line.
As a big division dog I kinda like the DETROIT Lions to cover the number on the road in Chicago. Consider the Martz timing based aerial attack has looked anything but effective this pre-season and it's hard to see the Bears posting dominant offensive numbers in their opening contest. On the other side the Lions have a proven home run threat in Calvin Johnson, and look to be vastly improved on defense. This may be one of those familiar ugly low scoring "black and blue" division rivalry games - decided by a FG or less.
Also Likes: Houston (ML)
8/29/10 The MIAMI DOLPHINS are my dark horse favorite to challenge for, and perhaps win the AFC East - at 9 to 10 wins. All the talk is about the Patriots and NY Jets - and that's just how Parcells likes it. Vegas has installed the break even number for the Fish at winning eight games this year. But consider they have a significant home field advantage against their primary division rivals - facing front runners NY and NE at home during the humid days of fall; and they draw Tennessee at home, and travel to Oakland for their non-common opponents. While the Jets draw Houston at home, and travel to Denver; and the Patriots draw Indy at home, and travel to San Diego. The edge their goes to Miami. If the Dolphins can split their games with the Jets and the Patriots they will have the easiest path to the AFC East crown. The Miami defense should be much improved going into 2010, and they'll be contenders nobody is talking about to outright win the division.
6/28/10 Opening totals pick NFL football on Monday night: This should be a lower scoring game, UNDER 37.5 Ravens/Jets. Consider these are two run first football teams that don't cough up the football, and both have exceptional defenses. Don't look for defensive or special teams scores in this one. Typically NFL defenses are ahead of the offenses for the first few weeks of the season, and these are a couple of teams who stress ball control - neither quarterback is prone to giving up the pick. This should be a lower scoring affair, with more FGs in the redzone that TDs.
6/12/10 Opening line NFL thoughts: Minnesota plus 4.5 on the road at New Orleans - the Vikings may outright win this one - being such a large dog will motivate them more. The Saints may suffer one of the worst post super bowl let-downs in recent memory. Another interesting underdog is Green Bay getting 1 on the road at Philly on opening day. Consider the Packers had more picks on defense than any team in football last year, and the Eagles will be featuring one of the youngest teams in the NFL - the Packers look like another upset special which should probably be favored to outright win their opening game.
4/19/10 Dale has an in depth analysis and grade of each teams 2010 NFL Draft!
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Feature articles by Football Forecasters:
War in the trenches:
6/27/06 - Dale checks in with part 4 of 4 on his NFL Lineman series. The last installment from Dale's interview with Colt's Pro Bowl center Jeff Saturday.
The basics of blocking:
6/20/06 - Dale checks in with part 3 of 4 on his NFL Lineman series. Based in part on Dale's interview with Indianapolis Colt's Pro Bowl center Jeff Saturday.
The key to any offensive scheme is the strength of the offensive line:
6/13/06 - Dale checks in with part 2 of 4 on his NFL Lineman series.
The key to any backfield is the strength of the offensive line:
6/10/06 - Dale Sims checks in with part 1 of his NFL Lineman series. We would like to thank Indianapolis Colts center Jeff Saturday for his interview time, and insightful views of what it takes to man the line. This is part 1 of a 4 part series Dale is presenting on the intricacies of offensive line play in the NFL.
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