Peyton Manning 2012 NFL Team Pick - DALLAS:

DALLAS (2/22/12): That's my NFL betting pick opinion where Peyton Manning will end up throwing football's for the 2012-13 NFL season.  Just a hunch - I don't have "inside" NFL information.  But consider this:  Jerry Jones loves a winner, he's a risk taker, but also a football guy - he knows the only thing that kept his team out of the playoffs last year (and a chance to win it all) is Romo is not a consistent winner - Peyton is.  Manning would get the Cowboys to 11 to 12 season wins easily.  Dallas is loaded on offense (and outside of the secondary, they're loaded on defense as well, if they had a game manager on the field at QB, combined with young HC Jason Garrett's offensive play calling prowess, the combination would be an offensive juggernaut.  I don't know the details of his contract, but considering the Cowboys have about 13 million in cap space, and Romo received his guaranteed money early on in his contract - Romo is tradable (think Miami). 

The NFL TV audience would flat out love to see the Manning's play each other twice a season!  The more I think about it the more likely I feel he'll go to Dallas - I'm getting the same vibe as when we posted our NFL super bowl pick 12 days prior to the big game. That said I also get the feeling he may retire if his neck is not 100% - I certainly don't see Manning in Washington.

Early Super Bowl Pick (1/23/12): Damn - the Patriots are favored by 3 points?  Giants on the ML at 110. Patriots won't be able to stop the NY short and medium range pass attack; and they no longer have the advantage of knowing the other teams offensive signals.

Conference Championship Picks:  Don't feel near as confident with these football picks as I did last week - and I'm probably not going to be putting down any action.  That said if my arm was twisted and I had to make a play I'd probably go with the NY Giants on the ML as the AFC pick.  This ought to be a super great game to watch.  In the NFC, though the Pats offense is unstoppable and they will probably prevail, just don't see how they're a TD favorite; it wouldn't surprise me to see Baltimore win - taking the Ravens and 7 with the hook looks attractive.

NFL Football Divisional Playoff Picks:  Be sure to check out Dale's playoff analysis in the NFL Football Blog!

Late in the football season and NFL playoffs there usually isn't much line value left to pick from in these games, but this week I'm feeling a rare playoff contest that just begs to be bet on the Money Line:

SAN FRANCISCO (ML)(+) - Consider the situation: The Niner's are playing at home on grass off a bye, and the Saints are coming off an explosive Sunday win in their home dome, traveling to what will surely be a slow soggy Candlestick field (which reduces the unique effectiveness of speedy RB Darren Sproles). Then consider the fundamentals: Niner's have an elite run defense, a solid pass rush, and they don't give up big plays. They have the all pro athletes on the outside of the 3-4 defense to  match up to and minimize Saints elite TE Daniel Graham.  San Francisco has the defensive players and a sound scheme to reduce the effectiveness of the Saints juggernaut offense.   On the other side of the ball Niner's play power run football right up the middle, with just enough downfield passing to keep the Saints from stacking the line.  My pick is San Francisco, they will post 20-24 points, while N.O. is good for 17-21 points. Which makes this a great three to four percent of bankroll ML play on the home dog.

BALTIMORE - The defense is elite, and Houston is starting a true rookie QB on the road in the playoffs.  This one has the earmarks of a POUNDER.  Lay the points as the home team will push to establish a two score margin, and win by double digits.

ALSO LIKES: Denver (+), Green Bay 

NFL Football Wildcard Picks & Comment:

The NFL wild card round is not a good time to make up ground on your football betting bankroll.  If you're in that position keep in mind NFL playoff games are among the most heavily wagered football events of the year, and the Vegas lines tend to get tight in those situations. If you place a wager this week remember to observe the 3-5% of bankroll per pick wagering strategy.

Pittsburgh at Denver does look tempting, as I don't see where the points are going to come from for Denver - they may not reach double digits. However, the Steelers are without several key players on both sides of the ball; of particular concern is the absence of starting center Pouncey.  The talking heads are heavily on the heralded Steelers to thump Denver on the road.  The Bronco's defense is pretty good, and the Steeler's offense has been sputtering. All things considered if my arm was bent I'd probably take the home team and the points.

Detroit at New Orleans is another contest which appears to be a severe mismatch - and it probably will be - but that doesn't mean I have to invest on either side.  Lions have the type of explosive offense that could put up points in this situation, they probably will not stay with the Saints, but they have type of offense that matches up fairly well here. Another contest where if I had to take either side I'd take the generous points.

Cincinnati at Houston features two rookie quarterbacks, and two stout defenses.  All things considered this one shapes up to be another conservative lower scoring affair.  Consider that Cincinnati has not faired well against upper echelon competition - and despite the inexperienced QB the Texans can play at a very high level on both sides of the ball - featuring a very potent attack out of their two headed back field. Cincinnati can move the ball between the 20's, but has trouble in the red zone against superior defenses - which is Houston.  I don't think Houston goes far in the playoffs, but here my call is they win by 3  to 7 points.

Atlanta at NY Giants may be the best game to watch this weekend.  Many analyst's are touting NY as a dark horse team which might emerge from the NFC - I don't think so. In fact, they will have their hands full just getting past Atlanta. The Falcons match up incredibly well to NY - they should be able to run the ball. If they had a receiving threat out of the backfield it would be an excellent match-up advantage.  On the other side of the ball Atlanta's secondary is pretty solid, and Eli has been known to give up the ball when he gets pressured.  This one shapes up to be a 3 point contest either way, and it will not surprise in the least to see Atlanta pull off the road upset - probably the best wild card play on the board.

Week 14 NFL picks

SEATTLE (+)(ML) - W - Fundamentally Seahawks are vulnerable over the top to efficient pass attacks, Chicago is hardly that. Without Forte' the Bears do not have the screen option, without Cutler the Bears have a limited downfield threat.  Seattle on the other hand has an identity - they can and will run the ball.  The defenses are respectable for both teams. This one should be decided by less than a TD either way.  It's a bold play, but Seattle straight-up on the ML is a good value bet.

PITTSBURGH (+)(ML) - L - MNF - Situationally Steelers are a very good MNF road team, San Fran may not be.  Fundamentally San Fran is vulnerable over the top to efficient pass attacks, and bad wheel or not if Roethlisberger plays Pittsburgh has a great downfield attack. 

ALSO LIKES:  Tennessee (+) 

Week 13 Football picks

NY GIANTS (+)(ML) - W - The G-men just a tougher team mentally than the Cowboys. This one probably goes down to the wire decided by a FG.  No significant fundamental advantage edge to exploit, just see some value in the line on the ML playing the stronger team to outright win, or keep it within a FG.  NY does have the downfield pass attack to exploit this Cowboys secondary.

ATLANTA - W - Fundamental match-up advantage for the Falcon's run oriented offense against one of the leagues worst rush defenses. Atlanta has the secondary to contain Carolina's downfield pass threat, and disciplined linebackers to minimize Newton's run options. The line is an even 3, there is some value to playing Atlanta at that number, as I have the Falcons by 3-7 points.

ALSO LIKES: Philadelphia (ML)

NFL Picks for week 13

SEATTLE (+)(ML) - W - The Seahawks have the hard nosed run first mentality that can discourage and defeat the Eagles.  Philadelphia does not possess the fluid pass attack that can exploit the Seahawks primary vulnerability.  Seattle should outright win - by 3 or more.

DENVER A+ Play on the ML - W - Tebow does not turn the ball over, and without AP the only chance the Vikings have is to score on a short field. Consider these factors and make your own decision:  CB Champ Bailey can limit WR Percy Harvin's impact, the other starting wideout, Michael Jenkins, is out for the rest of the year. Rookie QB Ponder will not have his check down options and Denver has a very good pass rush.  Take the disciplined under the radar Broncos with 5% of bankroll on the Money Line to win straight up.

ALSO LIKES: San Fran, Washington (+)

Week 12 NFL Picks

SAN FRANCISCO (+)(ML) - L - The only team the Ravens should be favored by six over is Pittsburgh.  Niner's have the run defense to contain the sustaining portion of Baltimore's run first offense.  Offensively they have the running game and short over the middle pass attack that will give Baltimore trouble. Take the generous points, and don't be surprised if San Fran out right wins.

DENVER (+) - W - Bronco's defense is playing at a high level right now, and San Diego rushing offense has disappeared. Chargers O-Line is struggling, while Bronco's can both stop the run and get to the passer - they have CB Bailey to take away home run threat Vincent Jackson. Take Denver and the generous points to keep this one close.

Also Likes:  Houston

Week 11 NFL Picks - Just feeling the one play worth placing a wager on this week.  Be sure and check out Dale's office pool picks in the NFL Football Blog!

CLEVELAND (+)(ML) - W - The Jaguars bring in a struggling rookie QB playing on the road. Jags do have a decent ground attack, and that has been an area where the Browns have struggled in defense. However, Cleveland has the stronger offense, and superior special teams.  Play Cleveland on the Money Line to win a relatively lower scoring affair straight up.

ALSO LIKES: San Fran, Green Bay

Week 10 NFL Picks:

DETROIT (+)(ML) - W - The Lions are vulnerable up the middle to power rushing attacks - that's not the Bears.  Detroit defense excels at applying pressure on the pocket right up the middle - where the Bears are weak. Chicago is vulnerable in the secondary both to big play receivers AND quality tight ends - that's Detroit's game.  Lions coming in off a bye, Bears coming in on the short Monday Night Football week.

PITTSBURGH A+ - W - The Steelers are off a home division loss to the Ravens, and should not overlook the division leading Bengals.  Cincinnati is 6-2 overall, but have just one division win (Cleveland), and one quality win thus far (Buffalo).  Pittsburgh has a top shelf pass defense, the best rookie QB Dalton has seen to this point. Steelers should be able to move the ball both on the ground and over the top. Pittsburgh should put up 21 to 24 points, Cincy will post 13-17.  Lay the FG for a 4% of bankroll play.

Also Likes: San Francisco, St. Louis, Philadelphia, NY Jets, Buffalo

NY JETS (+)(ML) - W - A fundamentals play - Buffalo can run the ball when they can spread you out - and though the Jets can be run on by elite rushing teams - that's not the Bills.  The Jets will put their corners on an Island and focus on stopping the run - their linebackers play well in space. NY has recently been focusing on establishing the run, and the Bills can be had if you can run the ball on them.  After a hot start Fitzpatrick has cooled off, and NY is off the bye facing an upstart division foe. If NY was just playing a bit better on the road this would be an A+ rated pick.  Jets by 3.

CINCINNATI (+) - W - The team playing better ball is getting points, but it's tough to win two weeks in a row on the road. Still, the young team is playing better as the season progresses. Titans don't have anything going right now, either on the ground or down the field, and this is a staunch defense they're facing. Cincy and the points, and won't be surprised if they outright win.

ALSO LIKES: Kansas City, NYG/NE UNDER, Oakland, St. Louis

The picks are rolling of late and we want to keep it that way:

INDIANAPOLIS (+) - L - A situational play: Colts are a proud team coming off a Monday night debacle. Getting double digits points on the road against a team that is anything but a power house.  Titans having a difficult time getting the running game going and they don't have a deep threat to stretch a defense. This might be closer than Vegas things - I'll play the points.

DALLAS - L - This just is not a good match-up for Philly.  Dallas front 7 should control the trenches AND contain Vick.  Cowboys are vulnerable over the top to a precision pass attack - but that's not the Eagles.  On the other side Philly is vulnerable up the gut to a strong running game - and that is DeMarco Murray.  Dallas by 7.

ALSO LIKE:  WASHINGTON (+), BALTIMORE, HOUSTON 

Finally stopped the skid with two needed wins last week, let's keep it rolling:

ATLANTA - A+ (ML) - W - This is a "must" win for the Falcons, they'll be focused going into Detroit before their bye. Atlanta matches up quite well with the Lions in that they're a run first team, they have an elite running back in Michael Turner, and Detroit can be ran on right up the gut. On the other side of the ball the Falcons have a quality CB in Robinson, with deep help on Megatron; and their linebackers are decent covering the TE.  The Falcons should stay within a FG, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them win by 7 for our first A plus rated play of the year.

DENVER (+) - W - Bronco's are the better team, and they are playing with passion. Miami seems like they've already packed it in for the off-season.  Fundamentally speaking the Dolphins secondary is thin to non-existent, and Tebow should have a solid debut.

Denver is getting points, but they may actually win.

ALSO LIKES: Carolina

The early part of the season has been trying, I certainly wouldn't be betting the picks at this point. That said...

BALTIMORE - Texans arguably without best player on offense and defense.... Don't see where Houston is going to generate the points to stay up.  On the other side Baltimore has firepower to move the ball over the top and up the middle.  Ravens by 10 - lay the seven.

BUFFALO (+)(ML) - W - Bills playing at a high level and bring it every week.  Giants having trouble sustaining a rushing attack, and have limited options downfield. Will not be surprised to see the high flying Bills outright win. Lay the heavy 3.

Game to watch: Dallas at New England - this one ought to be a dog fight.  Also Like: San Fran(+) at Detroit.

NFL Picks Week 5  10/08/11 

NEW ORLEANS - L - A division rivalry contest means the Saints will be focused. They've had time to look at film accumulated on rookie phenom Cam Newton; and the defensive scheming of the Saints is actually quite good. Look for the improved New Orleans secondary to welcome Newton to the NFL. Saints by 10.

ATLANTA (+) - L - The Falcon's have underperformed to this point, and should be highly focused for this prime time contest. Consider the way to beat the Pack is to run the ball, while the Falcons playbook is predicated on establishing the run. This should be a great one to watch, decided by a FG either way.

Also Likes: NY Giants, Arizona

NFL Picks Week 4  10/01/11 

PHILADEPHIA - L - Eagles off consecutive losses, including a tough division contest. Philly is the superior team and should be focused here. Eagles are vulnerable to the run, but San Francisco's O-line has been a weak point, and don't see them being able to substantially exploit this weakness. Birds by 10.

NY JETS(+)(ML) - L - Take the points, this might be the best game on the board to watch this Sunday, which should be decided by a FG either way.  NY was exploited last week by a very good Oakland running game; however, though the Baltimore running game is good, its not on a par with Oakland's. Look for a tightly contested game.  Ravens by 1.

NFL Picks Week 3  09/24/11  Last week was a rough 0-3 against the line. Dale's office pool picks faired better.  Cautiously optimistic we can bounce back hard this week with a couple interesting Money Line picks:

MIAMI (+)(ML) - W - The Fish have faced two of the leagues dominant offenses the first two weeks, now face a struggling Cleveland O with a running game gone AWOL. WR Brandon Marshall is back on his game and QB Henne is much improved. Fish better on both sides of the ball, should be favored - they win by 10.

CHICAGO (+)(ML) - L - Green Bay defense has surprisingly been porous thus far, they're struggling defending the deep ball, and OC Martz will be able to exploit. Chicago is tough at home, they whupped a pretty good Atlanta squad here two weeks ago. They are going to give Green Bay all they can handle, and I won't be surprised if they outright win. This one is decided by 3 either way - take the points.

ALSO LIKES: Pittsburgh, San Diego

NFL Picks Week 2 09/16/11  Check the football blog for Dale's week 2 NFL office pool picks.

GREEN BAY - L - Last week Arizona was without their top two corner backs from last year, don't expect miracles from Cam Newton this week. Green Bay vastly superior team on both sides of the ball. The Pack can and should win this one going away. My Pounder play of the day - Pack by 17.

DALLAS - L - Cowboys have a suspect secondary, and so do the Niners. Problem is Alex Smith will not be able to exploit the shaky Dallas secondary, while Romo has the downfield weapons, and the motivation to light up the Niners. Boyz by 7

MIAMI (+)(ML) - L - I'm calling the Dolphins to win this one straight up. Henne shined against the Pats, and the Texans don't have the secondary New England does. The fish should be able to move the ball over the top on Houston. Look for Miami to hit TE Fasano and WR Bess often in a ball control pass attack. Expect Texans might come out a bit flat. Like the solid situation and fish have fundamental means to pull off the upset. Miami by 7.

NFL Picks Week 1 09/04/11  Be sure and check Dale's NFL office pool picks for his weekly scorecast on each every NFL match up.  Dale is the reigning champion for having the best 2010 record among hundreds of participants in a nationwide NFL office pool score picking contest. Check out his weekly NFL picks every week in the Football Blog.

CLEVELAND - L - Excellent defense, superior rush attack, and stable quarterback play make this a solid A play, laying less than a TD, to a visiting Bengals team in a state of chaos.  The Browns D may win this one on their own.  Loan Cleveland weakness is their secondary, but Cincy doesn't have the pass attack to take advantage.   WASHINGTON (+)(ML) - W - The skins are getting a FG at home, and I think they may outright win this contest; excellent MoneyLine pick.  Washington has a decent secondary, and Giants run a complex pass attack, which is playing their first game of the year.  A short training camp gives the advantage here to the home team defense.

NFL Football Picks 08/11/11  Oh hell yes FOOTBALL is here!  Dale has contributed his NFL insights to the Football Blog. We are looking over free agent moves and analyzing the opening line, and it looks like we may already have a couple nice NFL betting picks opening weekend. We're going to look at these a little closer and update them sooner than later.

WEEK NFL Picks 12/5/10  NEW ORLEANS - The Bengals defense has fallen off and the offense is getting very good at giving the ball to the opposition.  Consider the Saints underrated defense, potent offense, and motivation to play for a first round bye, and we have positive fundamental and situational match-up advantages. Lay the six.

BUFFALO - The Bills have been scrappy, their offensive line is coming together, and the Vikings are discouraged and falling apart. I expect the Bills will stay in this one, and will not be surprised to seem them outright win.

WEEK NFL Picks 11/20/10  Cleveland - The Browns are playing very well. Jacksonville is off two emotional wins and might come out flat here.  Cleveland is never flat.  Fundamentally they have the ground and pound rushing attack to sustain rookie QB McCoy, and an underrated defense.  Consider that Jacksonville offense struggled last week against leagues worst defense (Houston), don't see them faring any better here.  My call is Cleveland outright wins on the road.

Next Week - Look for the "Pick of the Week" on Friday in the FOOTBALL BLOG 

ALSO LIKES:  It looks like a Dog Day afternoon....

WEEK NFL Picks 11/13/10  HOUSTON (ML) - Jacksonville doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the most potent aerial attack in the league.  The way to beat Houston is get to Schaub, and the Jags don't have the pass rush to consistently pressure him.  Texans win outright by 7 to 10 points.

PITTSBURGH - Don't see the Pats moving the ball on this defense.  They don't have the offensive firepower or deep threat to stretch the Steeler defense.  On the other side Pittsburgh has the dominating ground game that can take advantage of the young Pats defense.

11/04/10  MINNESOTA A+ rated pick - The line is currently at eight, the Vikings at less than double digits is a top rated pick in this spot.  Consider the Vikings are a skill position talented laden team off a high profile loss, off the Randy Moss fiasco they still believe in themselves, and they are in "circle the wagons mode".  On the other side neither Arizona Cardinals players nor coaches believe in the QB, they have no running game to speak of, and their 29th ranked rush defenses is facing RB Adrian Peterson and an offensive line that is determined to lay down the wood this week.  I'm feeling an "all in" A+ rated play (that's a 5% of bankroll play for the wise, and the month's rent money for the foolish :)

Check out Dale's NFL office pool picks in the weekly FOOTBALL BLOG.

WEEK 8  Check out Dale's weekly NFL office pool picks in our Football Blog.  Our best of the best NFL picks are a phenomenal 13 wins against two losses thus far.  That's an incredible winning percentage of 87% - I'm thinking I should get divorced more often!  On to this weeks picks (for entertainment purposes only of course:) 

DENVER (ML) - This is strictly a "situational" play, as by the numbers the oddsmakers have the line right where its supposed to be. Fundamentally speaking there is not a major match-up advantage for either squad. This is a "road" contest for both teams, and Singletary CAN'T coach... period.  Playing on the road in London I'll take the superior QB with the superior coaching.

TAMPA BAY (ML)(+) - The Bucs are getting a FG on the road, and both Dale and I think this is a game they might flat out win.  Arizona doesn't have a QB who sees the field, and that allows the Bucs to stack the line and stop the run.  Only thing keeping this from being an A-rated opinion is the Bucs have trouble putting pressure on the QB.  On the other side of the ball QB Josh Freeman is the real deal - he can flat out play.

Also Likes:  San Diego, Houston (+)

10/23/10  CLEVELAND (+) - This is not a situation where the Saints typically lay the wood.  Browns are a power rushing team, and they'll look to pound the ball all day and takeaway the Saints big play.  Look for Cleveland to stay within the generous number.

KANSAS CITY - The Jags have no offense to speak of, no deep threat allows the Chiefs to stack the line.  Chiefs should be able to move the ball on the ground, and will take their shots deep on this vulnerable secondary.  KC off a tough road loss, and will not overlook this overmatched foe.

MIAMI (+)(ML) - The defensive minded Dolphins should be able to minimize the big play, and slow the run.  Underrated Fish should hang here, and I won't  be surprised at all if they pull off the outright upset.

Also Likes:  Seattle, Cincinnati (+)

10/13/10  SAN FRANCISCO A+ rated pick - The winless Niner's are playing their 2nd home game, while the Raiders are traveling in a division sandwich (at Denver next week).  Oakland is vulnerable to power rush attacks, and San Fran can bring it on the ground with Frank Gore.  Consider there is line value here due to tough home loss last week for the Niner's, and Raiders were fortunate to get two scores off punt blocks in their home win. Niner's have a better than average rush defense, the Raiders can't throw the ball, and don't have a pass rush.  The line is less than a TD, this is a rare opportunity where fundamental matchup advantages coincide with situational motivation for a premium 4-5% of bankroll A+ rated NFL pick.

10/08/10  HOUSTON - The Giants vaunted front 7 has not been formidable thus far, while the Texans offensive line has been dominant.  Look for Houston to be able to move the ball on the ground AND over the top against this vulnerable Giants secondary (regardless of whether Andre Johnson is in the line-up or not).  Houston lost at home the last time they were here (to Dallas), this is a solid fundamental and motivational play against another headliner home opponent. NY should be able to move the ball between the 20's, but without Ahmed Bradshaw will not have a sustaining ground attack.  The Texans are for real, their offensive line is playing well, and their pass attack should be able to move the ball up and down the field all day.

Chicago - Starting a back-up QB in Todd Collins, but he's still better than who the Panthers are trotting out... the Carolina secondary can be beaten, and the Panthers do not have a pass rush....  On the other side fo the ball the Bears have a formidable run defense, should be able to contain the Carolina rush attack, AND they can get after the passer.  Bears special teams and defense might win this one without the offense taking the field.

For those in Vegas initially it might be difficult to lay money on the REDSKINS on the ML as a home dog, but this line just does not add up (Green Bay is favored by only 2.5).  This line just smells bad, as strictly by the numbers GB should be favored by 3.5 in this contest... so if you have a contrarian bent and are willing to take a risk WASHINGTON would be an interesting ML play as a home dog.  Consider that the Skins do have some excellent match-ups on defense against what the Packers like to do in their spread offense with the tight end.  If you are adverse to taking the Skins here please do yourself a favor and avoid taking the Packers.  This one will be close, and I will not be surprised to see the Skins pull off the home upset.

ALSO LIKES: KC (+), Cleveland (+), New Orleans